U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) remained virtually unchanged from the previous week. At 441.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.0 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline remained the same, but blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories remained unchanged last week and are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.0 million barrels last week.

Pending home sales overall slipped in November, but saw minor increases in the Northeast and the West, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 0.7 percent to 101.4 in November, down from 102.1 in October. However, year-over-year contract signings dropped 7.7 percent, making this the eleventh straight month of annual decreases.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the current sales numbers don’t fully take into account other data. “The latest decline in contract signings implies more short-term pullback in the housing sector and does not yet capture the impact of recent favorable conditions of mortgage rates,” he said.

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Friday, indicating that post-Christmas rally could be extended into the third day.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 1.7% in December 2018. Compared with November 2018, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.1%. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that, on an annual average, the inflation rate is expected to stand at 1.9% in 2018.

In December 2018, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 1.7% year on year. Compared with November 2018, it is expected to be up 0.3%. On an annual average, the harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2018 compared with 2017.

The final results for December 2018 will be released on 16 January 2019.

• The number of mortgages approved by the main high street banks in November was 10.6 per cent lower than November 2017; approvals for house purchase were 1.2 per cent lower, remortgage approvals were 20.3 per cent lower, and approvals for other secured borrowing were 12.2 per cent lower.

• The £11.3bn of credit card spending in November was 7.5 per cent higher than November 2017. Over the past twelve months, the outstanding level of credit card borrowing grew by 5.3 per cent. Personal borrowing through loans and overdrafts grew by 2.5 per cent in the year to November.

• Personal deposits in total grew by 0.7 per cent over the past twelve months. Deposits held in instant access accounts were 3.1 per cent higher than last November.

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In December, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 2.6 points to 96.3 points compared with November (revised to 98.9 points from 99.1 points). The main drivers of this development stem from indicators belonging to the producing sector (manufacturing and construction). In addition, a weakly negative signal is sent by the financial sector and private consumption. Favorable export prospects, on the other hand, cushion this downward tendency.

The gloomier mood of the producing sector is driven by various factors. Negative prospects for incoming orders and the purchase of intermediate goods are a major factor here. The indicators for actual production development and the number of employees also reinforce this impulse.

According to the flash estimate issued by the INE, the annual inflation of the CPI in December 2018 was 1.2%. This indicator provides a preview of the CPI that, if confirmed, would imply a decrease of five tenths in the annual rate, since in November this change was 1.7%. This behaviour highlights the decrease in the prices of fuels (diesel and gasoline/petrol).

In turn, the annual variation of the flash estimate of the HICP in December stands at 1.2%. If confirmed, the annual rate of the HICP would decrease five tenths with respect to the previous month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1546 (1762)

$1.1537 (912)

$1.1529 (260)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1449

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1430 (2427)

$1.1390 (3140)

$1.1345 (4980)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 68374 contracts (according to data from December, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1650 (5468);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2783 (1780)

$1.2754 (613)

$1.2718 (226)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2661

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2613 (2034)

$1.2578 (1915)

$1.2537 (1547)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 36580 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3833);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 33183 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2872);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.91 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.