The dollar / yen retreated from month low of nearly 100 points during the U.S. session on news that the U.S. Senate that Republicans discussing the adoption of a temporary funding bill that will win more time for negotiations and to avoid interruption of the government.
The debt ceiling is not a constraint for future spending, instead limiting the funding of current liabilities . So , the Republicans are trying to tie the debt ceiling increase to a reduction in federal spending - including a one-year stay of execution of the law of affordable medical care. On the other hand the Democrats wish to defend the charges , especially the program Obamacare, the Republicans in calling for a reduction . In the case of the suspension of the government's delay may occur publication of government reports, including data on employment and retail sales of NFP .
The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar despite the political tensions in Italy against the background of some improvement of risk sentiment. Talk about the fact that the Italian senators from PdL party could support the Prime Minister Enrico Letta , circulated today among the players , which positively affects the dynamics of the euro. Today , Fitch issued a statement on the situation in Italy , warning that if a vote on Wednesday the government Enrico Letta not receive a vote of confidence , might be jeopardized financial goals of the country.
" Prolonged uncertainty about the economic and financial policy has undermined confidence in the fact that the ratio of government debt / GDP will contract in 2014 , and the country's inability to meet the requirements of a balanced budget could jeopardize Italy's rating at 'BBB +' with a negative outlook ," - says Fitch. In the case of a collapse of the coalition government in Italy , where the country will lose the opportunity to fulfill the requirements under the European Pact on Stability and Growth Pact , EU support in the form of ESM or the OMT will be severely limited .
Previously, some support the pound was able to provide a report that showed that on the basis of last month, the number of mortgage approvals has increased markedly , reaching thus the highest level in more than five years. According to the report , the creditors were granted 62,226 mortgages , which was the highest since February 2008 . Note also that the figure for July was revised upward to the level of 60,914 with an average 60.6 million According to experts the value of this index was to rise to the level of 61.5 thousand net mortgage lending rose to 974 million pounds ( $ 1.6 billion ) in August, and consumer loans increased to 577 million pounds. Meanwhile , today's data also showed that in August of business lending fell to 3.8 billion pounds, or drop more than three times the average decline in the last six months. Add , compared with a year earlier loans declined by 3.6 percent. The volume of loans to small and medium-sized companies fell by 3.2 percent compared to last year.
European stocks declined the most in a month, trimming the best quarter in four years, as the U.S. faced the first government shutdown in 17 years and Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta fought to save his administration.
The U.S. government is heading for its first partial shutdown since 1996 at midnight tonight, after a weekend with no signs of negotiations or compromise from either the House of Representatives or Senate to avert it.
The House voted 231-192 yesterday to tie an extension of government funding through Dec. 15 to a delay in many central provisions of President Barack Obama’s health-care changes. The Senate convened in Washington today and will probably reject the deferral to Obamacare.
A federal shutdown would reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points, depending on its length, economists said, as government workers from park rangers to telephone receptionists are laid off temporarily. The Office of Management and Budget estimated 30 days of shutdowns in 1995 and 1996 cost more than $1.4 billion, or $2.09 billion in today’s dollars.
In Italy, Letta said he’ll request a confidence vote for Oct. 2 to try to save his five-month-old administration after Silvio Berlusconi withdrew his support from the ruling coalition and pulled his ministers from cabinet. Yields on the nation’s 10-year bonds rose two basis points to 4.43 percent.
National benchmark indexes retreated in all 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX each lost 0.8 percent, while France’s CAC 40 Index slid 1 percent.
UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, lost 1.3 percent to 4.71 euros. Intesa Sanpaolo, which appointed Carlo Messina as chief executive officer to replace Enrico Tommaso Cucchiani yesterday, fell 3.5 percent to 1.53 euros. Mediaset SpA, the broadcaster controlled by Berlusconi, dropped 4.5 percent to 3 euros, the lowest price since July 3.
A gauge of basic-resources shares fell 0.9 percent. Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining companies, retreated 1.4 percent to 3,023 pence and 1.1 percent to 1,820 pence, respectively. Anglo American Plc lost 1.4 percent to 1,518 pence.
A Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to 50.2 for September from 50.1 in August, according to a purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. The reading missed the preliminary estimate of 51.2. Fifty is the threshold between contraction and expansion.
Telecom Italia SpA rose 5.2 percent to 61 euro cents amid speculation Chief Executive Officer Franco Bernabe will resign. Bernabe plans to tell the board at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 3 that he’s ready to step down after losing the backing of Telco SpA, the Telefonica SA-led holding company that owns 22.4 percent of the carrier, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are confidential.
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to the lowest level in almost three months as the U.S. government is poised for a shutdown that may reduce demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming country.
Futures fell as much as 1.8 percent, extending this month’s loss. Congress has a day to end a stalemate that boosts the risk the government will close. A shutdown would cut fourth-quarter U.S. expansion as much as 1.4 percentage points, economists said. WTI also slipped after President Barack Obama and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani spoke by phone on Sept. 27 the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and the United Nations Security Council approved a plan to scrap Syria’s chemical arms.
WTI crude for November delivery decreased $1.08, or 1.1 percent, to $101.79 a barrel at 11:08 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract touched $101.05, the lowest level since July 5. The volume of all futures traded was about 23 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have slid 5.4 percent this month. They are up 5.4 percent this quarter and and 11 percent in 2013.
Brent oil for November settlement fell 46 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $108.17 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 26 percent lower than the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude was at a $6.38 premium to WTI, up from $5.76 on Sept. 27.
Gold prices are updated weekly high and back, but at the same time can show the best quarterly performance in a year. Gold rose in price because of the threat of closure of U.S. government agencies , despite the uncertain future of the Fed's incentive program .
For the third quarter of gold has risen in price by almost 9 percent due to short covering , geopolitical problems in the Middle East and weak U.S. economic indicators .
The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Sunday approved a bill that puts government funding dependent on annual deferral proposed by President Barack Obama's health care reform . Representatives of the Democratic Party in the Senate answered that they do not miss this bill . If the law on the financing of the government will not be accepted by midnight , government agencies will be closed for the first time in 17 years .
According to analysts , the price of gold, depreciating since the beginning of the year by 20 percent, may fall to $ 1,250 an ounce by the end of the year if the Fed will announce a reduction of incentives in October , or up to $ 1,400 , if you reduce the incentives will not. The next meeting will be held October 29-30, Fed .
Experts note that the central bank will probably again leave policy unchanged , and he probably does not want to give two very different views of policy on rates during the entire 30 days.
The cost of the October gold futures on COMEX today rose to $ 1350.90 an ounce and then fell to $ 1322.00 an ounce.
EUR/USD $1.3380, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100
USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.25, Y98.30, Y98.50, Y98.65, Y98.95, Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.30, Y100.00
AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9315, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9500
USD/CAD Cad1.0310
GBP/JPY Y158.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8370, stg0.8400
NZD/USD $0.8300
U.S. stock futures slid as a stalemate over the federal budget increased the risk of a government shutdown.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 14,455.8 -304.27 -2.06%
Hang Seng 22,859.86 -347.18 -1.50%
Shanghai Composite 2,174.66 +14.64 +0.68%
FTSE 6,463.85 -48.81 -0.75%
CAC 4,137.57 -49.20 -1.18%
DAX 8,582.95 -78.56 -0.91%
Crude oil $101.56 -1.27%
Gold $1330.00 -0.69%
Data
00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1 54.1
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1% +0.2%
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1% +2.1%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5% +3.4%
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.2 51.2 50.2
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9% +8.8%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -0.2% Revised From -1.4% +0.9% +0.5%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August +2.9% Revised From +2.3% +0.6% +0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 1.3 1.6 1.6
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 60.6 61.5 62.2
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) September +1.3% +1.3% +1.1%
Dollar holds tight against the euro amid a lack of important reports that can influence the course of trading. It should be noted that the impact of the currency could not have previously submitted a report on the euro area.
The report from Eurostat, the Statistical Office showed that in the month of September, the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in three and a half years , which suggests that the European Central Bank have the ability to suspend a little further stimulate the region's economy , if it deems necessary.
Note that the results of September 's CPI rose by 1.1 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year , registering with the lowest growth rate since February 2010 . Recall that in August, the annual consumer price inflation was at 1.3 percent. According to experts the average value of this indicator was to remain unchanged in September - at around 1.3 percent.
We add that the weak inflation underlines the fragility of the eurozone economy , which emerged from an 18-month recession in the second quarter of this year.
We add that the latest index of consumer prices well below the ECB's target rate , which is set at less than 2 %, indicating that inflation will not create any obstacles for further stimulus if the representatives of the ECB decides that the economy needs it.
The pound fell against the dollar , as many market participants are waiting for tomorrow's publication of an index of manufacturing activity PMI, which according to the forecast of economists , will rise to two-year high in September and will reach 57.5 .
We add that the previously little support pound was able to provide a report that showed that on the basis of last month, the number of mortgage approvals has increased markedly , reaching thus the highest level in more than five years.
According to the report , the creditors were granted 62,226 mortgages , which was the highest since February 2008 . Note also that the figure for July was revised upward to the level of 60,914 with an average 60.6 million According to experts the value of this index was to rise to the level of 61.5 thousand
Net mortgage lending rose to 974 million pounds ( $ 1.6 billion ) in August, and consumer loans increased to 577 million pounds.
Meanwhile , today's data also showed that in August of business lending fell to 3.8 billion pounds, or drop more than three times the average decline in the last six months. Add , compared with a year earlier loans declined by 3.6 percent. The volume of loans to small and medium-sized companies fell by 3.2 percent compared to last year.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in a narrow range with no particular trend
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.6127
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.54
At 12:30 GMT Canada will report on changes in the volume of GDP in July, and will also release an index of commodity prices for August. At 13:45 GMT the United States will present the Chicago PMI index for September. At 23:30 GMT Japan will release data on changes in the level of household spending in August , the index of activity in the sector of large manufacturers and Tankan index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector in Q3 Tankan and present the predictive value of the index 'Tankan' for large enterprises and the production sector predictive value of the index 'Tankan' non-manufacturing activity in the 4th quarter .
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600, $1.3575/80, $1.3545/50
Bids $1.3475/70, $1.3462/59, $1.3455/50, $1.3420/10
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6250, $1.6220, $1.6200, $1.6180/85
Bids $1.6100, $1.6060/50, $1.6020, $1.6000
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9365/70, $0.9350, $0.9340
Bids $0.9300, $0.9280, $0.9250, $0.9200
EUR/JPY
Offers Y133.50, Y133.20, Y132.95/00, Y132.80, Y132.35/40
Bids Y131.50, Y131.34/29, Y131.00, Y130.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y99.00, Y98.80, Y98.45/50, Y98.15/20
Bids Y97.70/65, Y97.50, Y97.00, Y96.66
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8480, stg0.8460/65, stg0.8450, stg0.8420, stg0.8375/80
Bids stg0.8320, stg0.8300, stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8200
European stocks declined , reaching a two-week low at the same time , due to the tense situation in the United States on the budget , as well as the struggle of the Prime Minister of Italy, Enrico Letta , to save his administration . Asian shares and U.S. index futures fell .
Note that the U.S. Senate has not held its meeting yesterday , and brought it to today . The meeting will consider the law on the financing of the government budget commitments have passed the House of Representatives. The U.S. Congress should soon adopt a budget legislation that allows the government to fulfill its obligations to the October 1 The temporary nature of the operation budget obligations caused by a conflict with the Democratic Republican administration because of the formation of priorities and spending budget. Recall that on Friday, the U.S. Senate voted to return to the House of Representatives to refine the budget law , deprived of funding health care reform, a key to the political agenda of President Barack Obama.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.7 percent to 309.87 . Since early September, the index rose by 4.2 percent.
We also add that the Prime Minister Enrico Letta is going to demand a vote of no confidence in his government on October 2 , he said on Sunday night , the TV channel Rai 3, after meeting with President Giorgio Napolitano . The Prime Minister has requested an emergency meeting with Italian President after five Ministers of the Council of Ministers belonging to the party of Silvio Berlusconi's "People of Freedom" , was on Saturday decided to withdraw from the government , which , according to them, they can no longer perform campaign promises .
Shares of UniCredit - Italy 's biggest bank , fell 2.4 percent to 4.66 euros.
The cost of Syngenta AG (Synn) fell 2.6 percent to 365.10 Swiss francs after Citigroup Inc lowered its corporate recommendation on the shares to ' neutral ' from ' buy '.
Telecom Italia SpA shares rose 3 percent to 59.75 cents on the euro amid speculation that CEO Franco Bernabe resigns.
At the moment :
FTSE 100 6,456.79 -55.87 -0.86 %
CAC 40 4,137.71 -49.06 -1.17 %
DAX 8,580.53 -80.98 -0.93%
EUR/USD $1.3380, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500 (500mln), $1.3550, $1.3600
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100
USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.25, Y98.30, Y98.50, Y98.65, Y98.95, Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.30, Y100.00
AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9315, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9500
USD/CAD Cad1.0310
GBP/JPY Y158.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8370, stg0.8400
NZD/USD $0.8300
Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index paring its biggest monthly gain since 2012, on concern the U.S. government is headed for a shutdown amid a budget stalemate.
Nikkei 225 14,455.8 -304.27 -2.06%
Hang Seng 22,859.86 -347.18 -1.50%
S&P/ASX 200 5,218.88 -88.18 -1.66%
Shanghai Composite 2,174.66 +14.64 +0.68%
Toyota Motor Corp., which gets 31 percent of its revenue in North America, declined 2.6 percent.
Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan’s third-largest bank, sank 4.1 percent after its lending unit was penalized by Japan’s banking regulator for failing to end transactions with “anti-social” groups.
BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s biggest oil producer, dropped 1.7 percent as crude fell.
00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1 54.1
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1% +0.2%
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1% +2.1%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5% +3.4%
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.2 51.2 50.2
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9% +8.8%
The dollar dropped to a one-month low against the yen as political wrangling over the budget threatened a U.S. government shutdown from tomorrow.
The U.S. currency extended its first quarterly drop versus the yen since a year ago, with Congress deadlocked over Republicans’ insistence on delaying the 2010 health-care law. The U.S. Senate will reconvene today, when it will reject a House of Representatives plan passed yesterday to delay and limit President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. In response, the House would add “another provision” to the spending measure and send it back to the Senate, said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the top House Republican vote counter.
The yen climbed against all 16 major peers and reached a three-week high per the euro as demand for safety increased with Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s government on the verge of collapse. Italian Prime Minister Letta said he will ask for a vote of confidence on Oct. 2, speaking on Rai 3 television. The Italian government has been torn apart by legal troubles facing former leader Silvio Berlusconi, whose criminal tax-fraud conviction subjects him to expulsion proceedings in parliament. Berlusconi allies have said they planned to quit the cabinet.
The pound gained versus the dollar before Markit Economics releases a U.K. factory index tomorrow that economists forecast increased to a 2 1/2-year high of 57.5 in September. A report today from London-based property researcher Hometrack showed that U.K. house prices rose the most in more than six years this month.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3480
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6180
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.65
A fairly quite calendar start to the week Monday, although all focus is on Washington DC, where the deadline for a deal to avert the Government shutdown is fast approaching. European data gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German retail sales data. August sales are seen up 0.8% vs the pervious -1.4%, with the on year number up 0.6%. At 0645GMT, the French August PPI numbers will cross the wires. Italian Sep flash HICP numbers are due. At 0900GMT, the EMU September flash HICP data will cross the wires. Year-on-year data is expected to be at 1.2%, with core at 1.1%.
For the US, a failure to raise the debt limit on Oct 17 would be worse than a government shutdown, Moody's says in a report. Financial market and economic consequences would likely be more severe if the debt limit is not raised than under a government shutdown. "Although the expenditure reduction under the debt limit scenario is smaller, the perception that the US government could default on servicing its debt if the debt limit is not raised could roil financial markets and damage business and consumer confidence," Moody's says. If a shutdown occurred, the government would still service its debt, but like the government shutdown from late 1995 to early 1996, most federal employees would expect to be unpaid and not work. "Our expectation is that the US will avoid a government shutdown and will increase the debt limit."
00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1%
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5%
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI September 51.2 51.2
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -1.4% +0.9%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August +2.3% +0.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 1.3 1.6
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 60.6 61.5
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) September +1.3% +1.3%
12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m August +0.3% +0.9%
12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index August +4.2% +3.2%
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) July -0.5% +0.6%
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index September 53.0 54.5
23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index September 46.4
23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 3.8% 3.8%
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August +0.1% +0.2%
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Non-Manufacturing Index Quarter III 12 14
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Manufacturing Index Quarter III 4 7