Notícias do Mercado

30 setembro 2013
  • 19:21

    American focus : the Japanese yen has weakened against the dollar

    The dollar / yen retreated from month low of nearly 100 points during the U.S. session on news that the U.S. Senate that Republicans discussing the adoption of a temporary funding bill that will win more time for negotiations and to avoid interruption of the government.

    The debt ceiling is not a constraint for future spending, instead limiting the funding of current liabilities . So , the Republicans are trying to tie the debt ceiling increase to a reduction in federal spending - including a one-year stay of execution of the law of affordable medical care. On the other hand the Democrats wish to defend the charges , especially the program Obamacare, the Republicans in calling for a reduction . In the case of the suspension of the government's delay may occur publication of government reports, including data on employment and retail sales of NFP .

    The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar despite the political tensions in Italy against the background of some improvement of risk sentiment. Talk about the fact that the Italian senators from PdL party could support the Prime Minister Enrico Letta , circulated today among the players , which positively affects the dynamics of the euro. Today , Fitch issued a statement on the situation in Italy , warning that if a vote on Wednesday the government Enrico Letta not receive a vote of confidence , might be jeopardized financial goals of the country.

    " Prolonged uncertainty about the economic and financial policy has undermined confidence in the fact that the ratio of government debt / GDP will contract in 2014 , and the country's inability to meet the requirements of a balanced budget could jeopardize Italy's rating at 'BBB +' with a negative outlook ," - says Fitch. In the case of a collapse of the coalition government in Italy , where the country will lose the opportunity to fulfill the requirements under the European Pact on Stability and Growth Pact , EU support in the form of ESM or the OMT will be severely limited .

    Previously, some support the pound was able to provide a report that showed that on the basis of last month, the number of mortgage approvals has increased markedly , reaching thus the highest level in more than five years. According to the report , the creditors were granted 62,226 mortgages , which was the highest since February 2008 . Note also that the figure for July was revised upward to the level of 60,914 with an average 60.6 million According to experts the value of this index was to rise to the level of 61.5 thousand net mortgage lending rose to 974 million pounds ( $ 1.6 billion ) in August, and consumer loans increased to 577 million pounds. Meanwhile , today's data also showed that in August of business lending fell to 3.8 billion pounds, or drop more than three times the average decline in the last six months. Add , compared with a year earlier loans declined by 3.6 percent. The volume of loans to small and medium-sized companies fell by 3.2 percent compared to last year.

  • 14:45

    U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , September 55.7 (forecast 54.5)

  • 14:30

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3380, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600

    GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.25, Y98.30, Y98.50, Y98.65, Y98.95, Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.30, Y100.00

    AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9315, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9500

    USD/CAD Cad1.0310

    GBP/JPY Y158.00

    EUR/GBP stg0.8370, stg0.8400

    NZD/USD $0.8300

  • 13:30

    Canada: GDP (m/m) , July +0.6% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Raw Material Price Index, August +0.9% (forecast +3.2%)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Industrial Product Prices, m/m, August +0.2% (forecast +0.9%)

  • 13:15

    European session: the British Pound was down against the dollar

    Data

    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1 54.1

    00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1% +0.2%

    00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1% +2.1%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5% +3.4%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.2 51.2 50.2

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9% +8.8%

    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -0.2% Revised From -1.4% +0.9% +0.5%

    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August +2.9% Revised From +2.3% +0.6% +0.3%

    08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 1.3 1.6 1.6

    08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 60.6 61.5 62.2

    09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) September +1.3% +1.3% +1.1%


    Dollar holds tight against the euro amid a lack of important reports that can influence the course of trading. It should be noted that the impact of the currency could not have previously submitted a report on the euro area.

    The report from Eurostat, the Statistical Office showed that in the month of September, the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in three and a half years , which suggests that the European Central Bank have the ability to suspend a little further stimulate the region's economy , if it deems necessary.

    Note that the results of September 's CPI rose by 1.1 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year , registering with the lowest growth rate since February 2010 . Recall that in August, the annual consumer price inflation was at 1.3 percent. According to experts the average value of this indicator was to remain unchanged in September - at around 1.3 percent.

    We add that the weak inflation underlines the fragility of the eurozone economy , which emerged from an 18-month recession in the second quarter of this year.

    We add that the latest index of consumer prices well below the ECB's target rate , which is set at less than 2 %, indicating that inflation will not create any obstacles for further stimulus if the representatives of the ECB decides that the economy needs it.

    The pound fell against the dollar , as many market participants are waiting for tomorrow's publication of an index of manufacturing activity PMI, which according to the forecast of economists , will rise to two-year high in September and will reach 57.5 .

    We add that the previously little support pound was able to provide a report that showed that on the basis of last month, the number of mortgage approvals has increased markedly , reaching thus the highest level in more than five years.

    According to the report , the creditors were granted 62,226 mortgages , which was the highest since February 2008 . Note also that the figure for July was revised upward to the level of 60,914 with an average 60.6 million According to experts the value of this index was to rise to the level of 61.5 thousand

    Net mortgage lending rose to 974 million pounds ( $ 1.6 billion ) in August, and consumer loans increased to 577 million pounds.

    Meanwhile , today's data also showed that in August of business lending fell to 3.8 billion pounds, or drop more than three times the average decline in the last six months. Add , compared with a year earlier loans declined by 3.6 percent. The volume of loans to small and medium-sized companies fell by 3.2 percent compared to last year.

    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in a narrow range with no particular trend

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.6127

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.54


    At 12:30 GMT Canada will report on changes in the volume of GDP in July, and will also release an index of commodity prices for August. At 13:45 GMT the United States will present the Chicago PMI index for September. At 23:30 GMT Japan will release data on changes in the level of household spending in August , the index of activity in the sector of large manufacturers and Tankan index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector in Q3 Tankan and present the predictive value of the index 'Tankan' for large enterprises and the production sector predictive value of the index 'Tankan' non-manufacturing activity in the 4th quarter .

  • 13:01

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600, $1.3575/80, $1.3545/50

    Bids $1.3475/70, $1.3462/59, $1.3455/50, $1.3420/10


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6250, $1.6220, $1.6200, $1.6180/85

    Bids $1.6100, $1.6060/50, $1.6020, $1.6000


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9365/70, $0.9350, $0.9340

    Bids $0.9300, $0.9280, $0.9250, $0.9200


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y133.50, Y133.20, Y132.95/00, Y132.80, Y132.35/40

    Bids Y131.50, Y131.34/29, Y131.00, Y130.50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y99.00, Y98.80, Y98.45/50, Y98.15/20

    Bids Y97.70/65, Y97.50, Y97.00, Y96.66


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8480, stg0.8460/65, stg0.8450, stg0.8420, stg0.8375/80

    Bids stg0.8320, stg0.8300, stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8200


  • 10:24

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3380, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500 (500mln), $1.3550, $1.3600

    GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.25, Y98.30, Y98.50, Y98.65, Y98.95, Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.30, Y100.00

    AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9315, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9500

    USD/CAD Cad1.0310

    GBP/JPY Y158.00

    EUR/GBP stg0.8370, stg0.8400

    NZD/USD $0.8300


  • 10:01

    Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, September +1.1% (forecast +1.3%)

  • 09:32

    United Kingdom: Net Lending to Individuals, bln, August 1.6 (forecast 1.6)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: Mortgage Approvals, August 62.2 (forecast 61.5)

  • 07:21

    Asian session: The yen strengthened

    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1 54.1

    00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1% +0.2%

    00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1% +2.1%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5% +3.4%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.2 51.2 50.2

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9% +8.8%


    The dollar dropped to a one-month low against the yen as political wrangling over the budget threatened a U.S. government shutdown from tomorrow.

    The U.S. currency extended its first quarterly drop versus the yen since a year ago, with Congress deadlocked over Republicans’ insistence on delaying the 2010 health-care law. The U.S. Senate will reconvene today, when it will reject a House of Representatives plan passed yesterday to delay and limit President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. In response, the House would add “another provision” to the spending measure and send it back to the Senate, said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the top House Republican vote counter.

    The yen climbed against all 16 major peers and reached a three-week high per the euro as demand for safety increased with Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s government on the verge of collapse. Italian Prime Minister Letta said he will ask for a vote of confidence on Oct. 2, speaking on Rai 3 television. The Italian government has been torn apart by legal troubles facing former leader Silvio Berlusconi, whose criminal tax-fraud conviction subjects him to expulsion proceedings in parliament. Berlusconi allies have said they planned to quit the cabinet.

    The pound gained versus the dollar before Markit Economics releases a U.K. factory index tomorrow that economists forecast increased to a 2 1/2-year high of 57.5 in September. A report today from London-based property researcher Hometrack showed that U.K. house prices rose the most in more than six years this month.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3480

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6180

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.65


    A fairly quite calendar start to the week Monday, although all focus is on Washington DC, where the deadline for a deal to avert the Government shutdown is fast approaching. European data gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German retail sales data. August sales are seen up 0.8% vs the pervious -1.4%, with the on year number up 0.6%. At 0645GMT, the French August PPI numbers will cross the wires. Italian Sep flash HICP numbers are due. At 0900GMT, the EMU September flash HICP data will cross the wires. Year-on-year data is expected to be at 1.2%, with core at 1.1%.

    For the US, a failure to raise the debt limit on Oct 17 would be worse than a government shutdown, Moody's says in a report. Financial market and economic consequences would likely be more severe if the debt limit is not raised than under a government shutdown. "Although the expenditure reduction under the debt limit scenario is smaller, the perception that the US government could default on servicing its debt if the debt limit is not raised could roil financial markets and damage business and consumer confidence," Moody's says. If a shutdown occurred, the government would still service its debt, but like the government shutdown from late 1995 to early 1996, most federal employees would expect to be unpaid and not work. "Our expectation is that the US will avoid a government shutdown and will increase the debt limit."


  • 07:00

    Germany: Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y, August +0.3% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 06:01

    Schedule for today, Monday, Sep 30’2013:

    00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1

    00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1%

    00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4%

    01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI September 51.2 51.2

    05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9%

    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -1.4% +0.9%

    06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August +2.3% +0.6%

    08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 1.3 1.6

    08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 60.6 61.5

    09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) September +1.3% +1.3%

    12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m August +0.3% +0.9%

    12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index August +4.2% +3.2%

    12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) July -0.5% +0.6%

    13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index September 53.0 54.5

    23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index September 46.4

    23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 3.8% 3.8%

    23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August +0.1% +0.2%

    23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Non-Manufacturing Index Quarter III 12 14

    23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Manufacturing Index Quarter III 4 7



  • 06:00

    Japan: Housing Starts, y/y, August +8.8% (forecast +12.9%)

30 setembro 2013
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