Cost of oil futures declined moderately today, continuing to retreat from the nine-month high, amid signs that oil exports from southern Iraq will not suffer from escalation.

Oil market today continues to record profits, the resulting fall on fears of oil exports from Iraq. Radical Islamists seized several towns in the east and north-east of Iraq and now lead an offensive against Baghdad. However, the oil fields in southern Iraq, which supplies about 95% of its oil exports, remain under the control of government forces. Recall that in the last month, Iraq produced about 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, in connection with what was the second largest OPEC oil producer after Saudi Arabia.

The course of trade is also affected by expectations of market participants key risk events. Tomorrow China should publish official manufacturing index for June, which, according to many forecasts, will reach a maximum of six months. Meanwhile, on Thursday, investors will be closely watching the political meeting of the European Central Bank, and wait for the release of the report on employment in the U.S. non-farm payrolls, which will give further views on the strength of the labor market.

Also note that analysts Reuters significantly increased oil price forecasts on the background of military action in Iraq, occupying the second place in the OPEC oil producer, and Ukraine. 26 forecast of analysts surveyed by was 108 dollars per barrel of Brent crude this year, compared with 105.90 dollars in the May poll. From the beginning, the average price of Brent was $ 108.72 per barrel. Forecasts for Brent for 2015 and 2016 are equal to, respectively, $ 104.80 and $ 102.10. Analysts on average forecast that the average price of U.S. benchmark WTI this year will rise to $ 100.40 a barrel from $ 98.05 in 2013. From the beginning, WTI traded at an average of $ 100.72.

Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 105.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell by 63 cents to $ 112.38 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices declined moderately, but still retreated from session lows. Many market participants are waiting for new catalysts for the growth of the market, which is likely to prove the monthly employment data in the U.S. and the ECB meeting later this week.

On Thursday, investors will wait for the release of the report on employment in the U.S. non-farm payrolls, which will give further views on the strength of the labor market. Analysts expect the U.S. economy grew by 211,000 jobs this month, while the unemployment rate must have remained the same at 6.3%.

Gold prices supported amid expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates for an extended period of time after data last week showed that the U.S. economy shrank at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the first quarter.

It is worth noting that the price of gold is close to the maximum in the last 2 months due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions. Iraqi army uses tanks and armored vehicles to liberate the city from Sunni militants in the north of Tikrit. In the area of ​​the city in eastern Ukraine Slovyansk fighting continues with the militia, despite the declared truce.

"From a technical point of view, the gold market looks good: support - $ 1,300 and resistance - $ 1,335. Growth is possible, but significant movements occur only at the end of the week after the employment report in the U.S. and the ECB meeting, "- said precious metals trader in Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, experts have warned that price volatility may increase at the end of the week, when it published a series of new economic data. Market participants will be absent from the United States on Friday of the Independence Day celebrations, which will be an additional factor of volatility on Thursday. In the absence of significant news from the geopolitical front gold prices will vary oppositely dollar.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1317.2 per ounce.

Gold $1,315.00 -7.80 -0.08%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $113.30 +0.16 +0.14%

NYMEX Crude Oil $105.74 -0.10 -0.09%