(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,0641 -0,23%
GBP/USD $1,2467 -0,18%
USD/CHF Chf1,0051 +0,10%
USD/JPY Y110,83 +0,29%
EUR/JPY Y117,95 +0,07%
GBP/JPY Y138,17 +0,12%
AUD/USD $0,7541 -0,34%
NZD/USD $0,6968 0,00%
USD/CAD C$1,3414 -0,17%
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY February 0.5% 0.5%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) February 104.9 104.7
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) February 115.1
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) March 3.6% 3.4%
06:00 Germany Current Account February 12.8
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) February 2.8% 0.1%
06:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln February 14.8
06:45 France Trade Balance, bln February -7.9 -4.9
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m February -0.3% 0.5%
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves March 668.18
07:30 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March 0.1% 0.3%
07:30 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March 5.1% 3.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance February -1.97
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) February 3.2% 3.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) February -0.4% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) February 2.7% 3.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) February -0.9% 0.3%
09:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks
12:30 Canada Employment March 15.3 5
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate March 6.6% 6.7%
12:30 U.S. Average workweek March 34.4 34.4
12:30 U.S. Government Payrolls March 8
12:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls March 28 15
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings March 0.2% 0.3%
12:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate March 63%
12:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls March 227 175
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate March 4.7% 4.7%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls March 235 180
13:00 U.S. President Trump and President Xi Jinping Meeting
14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate March 0.6% 0.6%
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index March 55.0 56.3
14:00 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories February -0.2% 0.4%
16:15 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak
19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit February 8.79 13.9
EURUSD: 1.0585-1.0600 (EUR 780m) 1.0625-1.0635 (676m) 1.0650 ( 650m) 1.0700 (1.37bln) 1.0710-1.0720 (473m) 1.0750 (958m) 1.0775-1.0785 (604m)
USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 715m) 110.20-110.35 (626m) 110.75 (422m) 111.00-10 (485m) 111.85-112.00 (1.2bln) 112.25 (532m) 112.50 (680m)
EURGBP 0.8470 (EUR 240m)
USDCHF: 0.9850 (USD 550m) 1.00 (200m) 1.0040-50 (835m)
AUDUSD: 0.7550-60 (AUD 447m) 0.7570 (352m) 0.7585-0.7600 (1.72bln)
NZDUSD 0.6950 (NZD 212m) 0.7975-80 (353m) 0.7000 (207m)
Ontario and Alberta led the five provinces that reported declines in February. The national decrease was mainly the result of lower construction intentions for single-family dwellings and institutional structures.
The value of residential building permits issued by Canadian municipalities fell 1.5% from January to $5.0 billion in February, but remained just above the $5.0 billion mark for a second consecutive month. The decline in single-family construction intentions was moderated by an increase in the multi-family component. Four provinces posted decreases in the residential sector in February, led by Ontario.
Construction intentions for single-family dwellings declined 5.4% to $2.6 billion in February. Ontario registered the greatest decrease in this component, more than offsetting the six provinces that reported gains.
In the week ending April 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 258,000 to 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 250,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 254,250 to 254,500.
EUR/USD
Offers: 1.0650 1.0670 1.0685 1.0700 1.0730 1.0750
Bids: 1.0625-30 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550
GBP/USD
Offers: 1.2500 1.2520 1.2550-55 1.2585 1.2600
Bids: 1.2470 1.2450 1.2420 1.2400 1.2375-80 1.2350
EUR/JPY
Offers: 117.85 118.00 118.20 118.50 118.65 118.80 119.00
Bids: 117.50 117.30 117.00 116.85 116.50 116.00
EUR/GBP
Offers: 0.8535 0.8555-60 0.8580 0.8600 0.8630 0.8650
Bids: 0.8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450 0.8430 0.8400
USD/JPY
Offers: 110.60 110.80-85 111.00 111.20 111.50
Bids: 110.25-30 110.00 109.85 109.65 109.50
AUD/USD
Offers: 0.7565 0.7580 0.7600 0.7620 0.7650
Bids: 0.7525-30 0.7500 0.7485 0.7450
Discussion is legitmate on when ECB should consider monetary policy normalisation and how it could adjust its communication accordingly
Eurozone retailers registered a decline in like-for-like sales during March, following a broad stagnation in the previous month. The overall decline was driven by a further sharp reduction in Italy, while month-onmonth sales in France fell for the first time since November. On the contrary, retail sales in Germany increased for the fourth consecutive month.
The headline Markit Eurozone Retail PMI - which tracks the month-on-month changes in like-for-like retail sales in the bloc‟s biggest three economies combined - dipped to 49.5 in March, from 49.9 in February, signalled a slight decline in sales.
The consumer price index (IPC) increased by 0.2% in March 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
Monetary policy stance is still appropriate
Before making any alterations to the components of our stance - interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance - we still need to build sufficient confidence
Don't have enough evidence yet to significantly change our inflation forecasts
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.0838 (555)
$1.0807 (1071)
$1.0764 (462)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0673
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0619 (502)
$1.0578 (738)
$1.0526 (1668)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 48397 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3936);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 53796 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0400 (4701);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 5
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2710 (783)
$1.2614 (370)
$1.2519 (894)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2482
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2386 (579)
$1.2290 (425)
$1.2192 (542)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 15259 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1364);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 16949 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3056);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 5
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
"In terms of the economic development, there was not much new in the FOMC minutes revealed yesterday, as the FOMC members have already been quite outspoken since the meeting.
However, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at the press conference following the meeting, the FOMC participants discussed when to change the current reinvestment strategy (which states that the Fed will continue to reinvest principal payments until the normalization of the Fed funds rate is well under way).
Further, the minutes say that a change to the Committee s reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year. The minutes also suggested that quantitative tightening would likely depend on the Fed funds target range or the level of an economic variable (possibly the PCE inflation rate or the unemployment rate, as it was the case with the Evans rule).
Meanwhile, the Fed staff still expects the Trump administration to ease fiscal policy but has pushed back the timing of when those policy changes were anticipated to take effect".
Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had increased in February 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 3.4% on January 2017. For January 2017, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 6.8% compared with December 2016 (primary -7.4%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had increased in February 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 2.2% on January 2017.
In February 2017, domestic orders increased by 8.1% and foreign orders remaind unchanged on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 2.4% on the previous month, new orders from other countries increased 1.6% compared to January 2017.
Wants to see how healthcare proceeds in congress before settling on details of tax reform bill
Infrastructure plan, which had been expected later this year, may be accelerated
Infrastructure plan "nay go public/private on some deals"
The Federal Reserve is ready to start to shrink their bloated $4.5 trillion balance sheet this year, the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting revealed, cited by rttnews.
At the March 14-15 meeting, FOMC members voted at the meeting to raise interest rates a quarter-point while projecting two further rate hikes this year.
There was detailed discussion of ending the reinvestment policy, with policy makers unsure whether to phase out reinvestment of principal payments or cutting them off at once by year's end.
This is seen as a nod to the improving economy and prospect of strong medium-term economic growth.
Provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, "most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year," the minutes said.
The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a weaker increase in total Chinese output at the end of the first quarter. At 52.1 in March, the Composite Output Index fell from 52.6 in February to signal the slowest increase in Chinese business activity for six months.
Similar trends were seen at the sector level, with both manufacturers and service providers noting slower expansions in output. Furthermore, the rate of services activity growth weakened to a six-month low in March. This was highlighted by the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index posting at 52.2, down from 52.6 in February, which was consistent with only a modest rate of increase. Chinese manufacturing production also rose modestly in March.
March data pointed to weaker growth in composite new orders, with the rate of expansion edging down to a four-month low. This reflected weaker increases in new work across both monitored sectors. As was the case with activity, service providers registered the slowest increase in new business since last September. A number of services companies mentioned that new product developments and greater client numbers had lifted sales. At the same time, goods producers signalled a softer, albeit still solid, rise in new orders