(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0601 -0,33%

GBP/USD $1,2045 -1,17%

USD/CHF Chf1,0117 +0,27%

USD/JPY Y114,19 -0,33%

EUR/JPY Y121,04 -0,68%

GBP/JPY Y137,53 -1,51%

AUD/USD $0,7475 -0,31%

NZD/USD $0,7101 -0,28%

USD/CAD C$1,3174 +0,36%

"In 2017, world economic growth may be better than expected, although there remains a lot of uncertainty factors that may affect the expansion, and the most significant of which is the strengthening of the US dollar", - said the chief economist of Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian.

"Prospects for the world economy in 2017 will be the same as last year, but the risks are reversed. The world economy will expand at a rate lower than 3 percent, and the US economy will outperform it, with growth of 2.5-3 percent, pointed El-Erian.

"The dynamics of the US economy is expected to support the US dollar, but the currency can be strengthened further if the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least three times in accordance with the baseline scenario for 2017, rather than twice, as priced in".

• The IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico, Brazil, and India, but raised for China

• The IMF raised its forecast for US GDP growth for 2017 to 2.3% from 2.2% in view of the stimulus plan proposed by Trump

• Trump policy may harm economic growth in the case of growing protectionism in the US

• The forecast for GDP growth in the UK in 2017 has been improved to 1.5% from 1.1%

• The forecast for Eurozone GDP in 2017 was revised to 1.6% from 1.5%

• The forecast for GDP growth in Italy in 2017 was downgraded to 0.7% from 0.9%

• The forecast for the growth of Japan's GDP for 2017 was revised to 0.8% from 0.6%

• The forecast for GDP growth in Canada for 2017 was confirmed at 1.9%.

• The forecast for China's GDP growth for 2017 was revised to 6.5% from 6.2%

The data published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, showed that the unemployment rate among the OECD countries remained unchanged in November.

The unemployment rate was 6.2 percent, in line with the figure for the previous month. Across the OECD area, 38.5 million people were unemployed.

In the euro area unemployment rate also remained stable, at around 9.8 percent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.8 per cent in Canada and 4.6 percent in the United States. The report also showed that the unemployment rate in Japan rose in November by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent.

The OECD reported that the unemployment rate among young people aged 15 to 24 years remained high, especially in Southern Europe. In total, 9.3 million young people were unemployed in the OECD countries. The youth unemployment rate was 12.8 percent.

EUR/USD 1.0440 (EUR 1,221 M) 1.0450 (EUR 234 M) 1.0500-1.0515 (EUR 530 M) 1.0575-1.0580 (EUR 528 M) 1.0600 (EUR 182 M) 1.0625 (EUR 301 M) 1.0640-1.0650 (EUR 204 M) 1.0700-1.0710 (EUR 335 M) 1.0745-1.0760 (EUR 591 M)

GBP/USD 1.2180 (GBP 188 M) 1.2200 (GBP 952 M) 1.2225 (GBP 479 M)

USD/JPY 112.00 (USD 1,285 M) 114.00 (USD 575 M) 115.00 (USD 3,626 M) 116.00-116.05 (USD 340 M)

AUD/USD 0.7470-0.7485 (AUD 1,215 M)

NZD/USD 0.7300 (NZD 603 M)

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in November 2016 was €184.2 billion, an increase of 6% compared with November 2015 (€173.8 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €158.3 bn, a rise of 5% compared with November 2015 (€150.9 bn).

As a result, the euro area recorded a €25.9 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in November 2016, compared with +€22.9 bn in November 2015. Intra-euro area trade rose to €154.0 bn in November 2016, up by 5% compared with November 2015

"There are probably five defining stages for the "Trump trade": Trading i) 'the promise'; ii) the deal-making; iii) the enactment; iv) the economic impact, and, v) the payback.

i) The promise stage is done. It has been powerful, precisely because it has involved a possible paradigm shift in cyclical stimulus and because the expected US policy mix is seen as so differentiated from the rest of the world.

ii) The deal-making phase. will take shape over the next 100 days. Here we will start to get a better feel for the scale of fiscal stimulus, and therefore the spillover onto monetary policy. The complexity of far-reaching changes could stretch this phase, making for more frustrating trade conditions, especially since the Fed is not under too much pressure to front-load their actions, without more clarity on fiscal policy.

iii) For the enactment phase where deals are signed off on in H2, the market will be particularly responsive to issues that relate to timing of impact; multiplier effects; the breakdown not least as it relates to far reaching corporate tax reform that will impact trade patterns, FDI, equity and bond flows; and, protectionist elements where retaliation is a real threat. Not to be forgotten in this phase is the overlap with changes in key Fed personnel, including the Fed Chair appointment. The talk of a more rules based Fed, or at least having the Fed Chair explain departures in policy from a rules based system, is apt to be seen as hawkish, especially given how accommodative policy is now (fed funds is tracking 100 - 125bps below a Taylor Rule signal).

iv) The economic impact phase. The growth impulse will likely be felt mostly in 2018, with questions on how much the upturn is accelerated and elongated into say 2019. The inflation impulse could have even longer lags, unless there is a border adjustment tax that hits import prices quickly. This will be a phase where we better understand how much the Fed will tighten in this cycle and whether the peak in the USD is in 2018 or even beyond. If there is a genuine acceleration in growth, the market could make sizable adjustments in Fed expectations, and this may well prove another important period for trending markets.

v).The payback phase. Fiscal stimulus often brings growth forward, usually with a payback in the form of slower growth as the stimulus wears thin. Similarly, there is a reversal in financial prices. Think of this as the equivalent of what we saw for the USD in the 1982-84, where the rally gave way to 'the payback' of a much weaker USD in 1985-87. In current circumstances payback is more relevant for 2019 and beyond.

While each of these five stages is likely to have its own defined characteristics, there is apt to be plenty of overlap. Importantly for USD bulls, fiscal initiatives should be seen as the 'icing on the cake'. The Fed was lining up to be the only G10 Central Bank to tighten in 2017, whoever was elected. Even a moderate net fiscal stimulus of say 1% of GDP without far-reaching tax reform or border adjustment taxes can justify modest USD strength (~5% on the TWI). Border adjustment taxes with its impact on trade, inflation and Fed policy, would simply make the story overwhelming".

Copyright © 2017 DB, eFXnews™

U.K. house prices increased marginally in January, property website Rightmove, cited by rttnews.

Property prices increased 0.4 percent in January from prior month to hit GBP 300,245. On a yearly basis, house prices advanced 3.2 percent in January.

Those planning to buy their first home in 2017 have more choice of properties and less competition from other buyers than their counterparts a year ago. Miles Shipside, Rightmove director said.

Rightmove said its website traffic increased by 5 percent since Boxing Day.

• At 12:30 GMT the ECB board member Yves Mersch will deliver a speech

• At 15:45 GMT the ECB board member Peter Praet makes a speech

• At 18:30 GMT Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech

• US celebrate Martin Luther King Day

In December, inflation data from TD Securities, published by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne, have increased by 0.5% after rising 0.1% in November. In annual terms, the indicator rose to 1.8%, which is higher than the previous value of 1.5%.

Target inflation rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia is 2-3%, and judging by today's data, the central bank is likely to postpone an interest rate cut for some time

According to data released today by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, the index of business activity in the services sector grew by 0.2% in November on a monthly basis after flat in October.

It is worth noting that this was the first increase in the index for the last four months. Most activity has increased in sectors such as information and communication, trade, finance and insurance, related business services, health care services and social services (electricity, gas, heat and water). Meanwhile, there was a decline in the sectors of entertainment, transport and postal services, lease, rental, leasing, retail and real estate.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0780 (2217)

$1.0745 (2213)

$1.0703 (254)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0618

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0541 (1263)

$1.0488 (2433)

$1.0422 (3270)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 53315 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3335);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 62630 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (4911);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 13

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2316 (528)

$1.2221 (222)

$1.2126 (162)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2032

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1987 (2202)

$1.1890 (3233)

$1.1792 (1011)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 17747 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3018);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 21484 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3223);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.25 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 13

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0636 +0,24%

GBP/USD $1,2186 +0,22%

USD/CHF Chf1,009 -0,18%

USD/JPY Y114,57 -0,11%

EUR/JPY Y121,86 +0,11%

GBP/JPY Y139,6 +0,09%

AUD/USD $0,7498 +0,21%

NZD/USD $0,7121 +0,38%

USD/CAD C$1,3126 -0,13%

04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index November 0.2%

10:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted November 20.1 22

12:00 U.S. Bank holiday

21:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter IV 26%