While the surge in confidence following Trump's surprise election ended by mid December, it nonetheless led to the highest level of the Sentiment Index since January 2004. Compared with the rapid gains made in late November and early December, the Sentiment Index was barely higher than at mid month and barely higher than the January 2015 peak -- in both cases, just two-tenths of a point -- but that small difference was enough to establish a twelve year peak.

An all-time record number of consumers (18%) spontaneously mentioned the expected favorable impact of Trump's policies on the economy. This was twice as high as the prior peak (9%) recorded in 1981 when Reagan took office. To be sure, nearly as many consumers referred unfavorably to anticipated changes in economic policies, but those references were less than half as frequent as the peak level recorded just three years ago (16% vs. 37%).

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.2 percent (±14.1%)* above the revised October rate of 563,000 and is 16.5 percent (±19.3%)* above the November 2015 estimate of 508,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2016 was $305,400; the average sales price was $359,900. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 250,000. This represents a supply of 5.1 months at the current sales rate.

EUR/USD 1.0350 (EUR 971m) 1.0800 (1.98bln)

USD/JPY 115.00 (USD 2.67bln) 116.00 (870m) 116.50 (1.07bln) 117.00 (975m) 117.50 (928m) 118.00 (760m)

GBP/USD 1.2000 (GBP 2.76bln) 1.2600 (2.75bln)

After increasing for four consecutive months, real gross domestic product was down 0.3% in October. Widespread decreases in manufacturing output and lower oil and gas extraction were the major contributors to the decline.

Goods-producing industries contracted 1.3% as manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, construction, utilities and the agriculture and forestry sector all declined in October.

Service-producing industries edged up 0.1%, mainly due to increases in real estate and rental and leasing as well as retail and wholesale trade. The public sector (education, health and public administration combined) also edged up. The finance and insurance, administrative services, accommodation and food services and transportation and warehousing services sectors declined.

EUR/USD

Offers : 1.0465 1.0485 1.0500 1.0525 1.0550-55 1.0585 1.0600

Bids: 1.0425-30 1.0400 1.0380-85 1.0365 1.0350 1.0335 1.0300

GBP/USD

Offers : 1.2285 1.2300 1.2330 1.2350 1.2380-85 1.2400

Bids: 1.2250 1.2220-25 1.2200 1.2185 1.2150 1.2100 1.2080 1.2050 1.2000

EUR/GBP

Offers : 0.8530 0.8550 0.8575-80 0.8600

Bids: 0.8485 0.8460 0.8435-40 0.8400

EUR/JPY

Offers : 123.00 123.30 123.60 123.85 124.00-10 124.30 124.50

Bids: 122.50 122.20 122.00 121.75 121.50 121.00

USD/JPY

Offers : 117.50-55 117.80-85 118.00 118.20-25 118.45-50 118.80 119.00

Bids: 117.15-20 117.00 116.70 116.50-55 116.30 116.00 115.85 115.50

AUD/USD

Offers : 0.7230 0.7260 0.7280 0.7300 0.7320 0.7350 0.7365 0.7380 0.7400

Bids: 0.7195-7200 0.7175-80 0.7145-50 0.7100-10 0.7065 0.7030 0.7000

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

EUR/USD 1.0350 (EUR 971m) 1.0800 (1.98bln)

USD/JPY 115.00 (USD 2.67bln) 116.00 (870m) 116.50 (1.07bln) 117.00 (975m) 117.50 (928m) 118.00 (760m)

GBP/USD 1.2000 (GBP 2.76bln) 1.2600 (2.75bln)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2016, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the second estimate of GDP published on 26 November 2016, due to upward revisions from the output of the business services and finance industries. This is the 15th consecutive quarter of positive growth since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2013.

Revisions to GDP quarterly volume growths are small compared with the previously published estimate. There are no revisions to any quarters in 2015. There are small revisions to the quarters of 2016; both Quarter 1 2016 and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points, and Quarter 3 2016 has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points. Further details can be found in the "Briefing on revisions to GDP" section.

The UK's current account deficit was £25.5 billion in Quarter 3 (July to September) 2016, up from a revised deficit of £22.1 billion in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2016. The deficit in Quarter 3 2016 equated to 5.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, up from 4.6% in Quarter 2 2016.

The widening in the current account deficit was mainly due to a widening in the deficits on total trade and secondary income, partially offset by a narrowing in the primary income deficit.

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer, with a score of 102.2 unchanged compared to the previous month, continued slightly above its long-term average. Positive impulses to the unchanged total balance came from the manufacturing industry, weighed up by negative signals from the construction sector. The remaining areas that can be identified within the Barometer (hotel and catering industry, financial sector and indicators relating private consumption as well as to the international economy) have practically not changed since November.

In November 2016, household consumption expenditure on goods increased again in volume: +0.4% after +0.8%. In particular, car purchases picked up and expenses on energy rose once more, though at a more moderate pace than in October.

Energy consumption grew again (+1.4%), but less vigorously than in October (+3.6%). Spending on gas and electricity kept on rising, due to temperatures still lower than seasonal norms. Refined product consumption slowed down but remained dynamic (+1.7% after 2.7%), driven by expenses on fuel.

"We view the yen as likely to be the weakest major currency in the G10 in 2017, with USDJPY reaching 128. Moreover, in contrast to our forecasts for other major currencies, we do not expect the yen to recover vs. the USD in 2018; instead, we forecast continuing depreciation.

We view the Bank of Japan's yield curve targeting strategy as leaving the JPY particularly vulnerable in an environment of rising global reflationary pressures. While yield curves in most G10 economies will respond to rising inflation by steepening, the BoJ has signalled that it will aim to keep the 10yr JGB yield anchored around zero. Against this backdrop, rising global inflation expectations will act to depress Japanese real yields relative to real yields elsewhere, undermining the yen. At some level of yen weakness, our economists note that the BOJ could adjust higher its target for long-end yields, which would likely be an important, limiting factor on the extent to which the JPY could weaken.

We expect the GBP to outperform most other G10 currencies in 2017, holding steady relative to a broadly firmer USD. The UK economy faces significant challenges in 2017 as it adjusts to Brexit uncertainty. However, as we have discussed in past Strategy publications, we think current levels of the GBP already price in a "worst-case" scenario for UK capital flows.

Moreover, there has already been a marked shift in UK government Brexit rhetoric, focusing less on immigration controls, and more on pro-business measures and the best possible single market access. GBP is trading very cheaply vs its long-term fair value and data suggest EM reserve managers are now comfortably, passively increasing GBP holdings".

Copyright © 2016 BNP Paribas™, eFXnews™

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0734 (1890)

$1.0656 (509)

$1.0597 (233)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0445

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0383 (1086)

$1.0346 (2215)

$1.0300 (2864)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 44407 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3209);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 53856 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (5039);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.24 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 22

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2513 (434)

$1.2417 (234)

$1.2322 (110)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2293

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2183 (576)

$1.2287 (423)

$1.1989 (1319)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 13559 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2994);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 16599 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3034);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.22 versus 1.29 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Consumer confidence is ending the year on a largely positive note. Economic expectations have increased slightly, while income expectations have seen significant growth. In contrast, propensity to buy has suffered moderate losses. The overall consumer climate index is forecasting 9.9 points for the first month of next year, after a figure of 9.8 points in December.

Consumers are remaining optimistic as 2016 draws to a close. As suggested by the third successive increase in economic expectations, they believe that the German economy is on course for moderate growth. Although income expectations have risen noticeably in December, propensity to buy has so far not been able to capitalize on this. However, despite having recorded modest losses, it remains at a very high level.