(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0436 +0,12%

GBP/USD $1,2282 -0,57%

USD/CHF Chf1,0253 -0,13%

USD/JPY Y117,53 -0,03%

EUR/JPY Y122,65 +0,08%

GBP/JPY Y144,32 -0,62%

AUD/USD $0,7215 -0,29%

NZD/USD $0,6902 +0,06%

USD/CAD C$1,348 +0,52%

07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey January 9.8 9.9

08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator December 102.2 103.1

09:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter III -27.5 -27.45

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III 0.7% 0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter III 2.1% 2.3%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) October 0.3% 0.1%

15:00 U.S. New Home Sales November 563 575

15:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) December 98 98

Personal income increased $1.6 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $1.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.0 billion
(0.2 percent).
Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in November and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

U.S. house prices rose in October, up 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.6 percent increase in September remained unchanged.

The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From October 2015 to October 2016, house prices were up 6.2 percent.

EUR/USD 1.0350 (EUR 971m) 1.0800 (1.98bln)

USD/JPY 115.00 (USD 2.67bln) 116.00 (870m) 116.50 (1.07bln) 117.00 (975m) 117.50 (928m) 118.00 (760m)

GBP/USD 1.2000 (GBP 2.76bln) 1.2600 (2.75bln)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $11.0 billion or 4.6 percent to $228.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 4.8 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 6.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $11.7 billion or 13.2 percent to $76.6 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $15.6 billion or 19.5 percent to $64.4 billion. Shipments decreased $0.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $70.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $5.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $697.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $170.1 billion.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, following a 1.5% gain in October.

Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to November, with the shelter and transportation indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The food index and the clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis.

The transportation index rose 1.4% year over year in November, following a 3.0% gain in October. This deceleration was led by gasoline prices, which declined 1.7% year over year in November after increasing 2.5% in October. The purchase of passenger vehicles index rose less year over year in November (+3.0%) than in October (+4.4%), but remained the main upward contributor to the 12-month change in the transportation index.

In the week ending December 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 275,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 257,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 94 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

Retail sales rose for the third consecutive month, rising 1.1% to $45.0 billion in October. Higher sales at gasoline stations and general merchandise stores were the main contributors to the gain. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales were up 1.4% in October.

Sales were up in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 90% of total retail trade.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms increased 0.6%.

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the second. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 4.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the second.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

EUR/USD

Offers : 1.0465 1.0485 1.0500 1.05251.0550-551.0585 1.0600

Bids: 1.0425-30 1.0400 1.0380-85 1.0365 1.0350 1.0335 1.0300

GBP/USD

Offers : 1.2380-85 1.2400 1.2425-30 1.2450 1.2485 1.2500-10 1.2530 1.2550

Bids: 1.2325-30 1.2300 1.2285 1.2250 1.220-25 1.2200

EUR/GBP

Offers : 0.8480 0.8500 0.8520 0.8550 0.8575 0.8600

Bids: 0.8435-40 0.8400 0.8375 0.8350-55 0.8330-35 0.8300

EUR/JPY

Offers : 123.00 123.30 123.60 123.85 124.00-10 124.30 124.50

Bids: 122.50 122.20 122.00 121.75 121.50 121.00

USD/JPY

Offers :117.80-85 118.00 118.20-25118.45-50118.80 119.00 120.00

Bids: 117.40 117.15-20 117.00 116.70 116.50-55 116.30 116.00

AUD/USD

Offers : 0.7260 0.7280 0.7300 0.7320 0.7350 0.7365 0.7380 0.7400

Bids: 0.7220-25 0.7200 0.7170 0.7145-50 0.7100

In October 2016 the seasonally adjusted retail trade index increased by 1.2% with respect to September 2016 (+1.1% for food goods and +1.3% for non-food goods). The average of the last three months decreased with respect to the previous three months (-0.2%). The unadjusted index decreased by 0.2% with respect to October 2015.

The retail trade index measures the monthly evolution of the turnover at current prices of enterprises with retail sale outlets.

USD/JPY 115.00 (USD 2.67bln) 116.00 (870m) 116.50 (1.07bln) 117.00 (975m) 117.50 (928m) 118.00 (760m)

GBP/USD 1.2000 (GBP 2.76bln) 1.2600 (2.75bln)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

The assessment confirmed the need to extend the asset purchase programme beyond March 2017 to preserve the very substantial amount of monetary support that is necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Global activity has improved in the second half of the year and is expected to continue strengthening, although remaining below its pre-crisis pace. Continued accommodative policies and improving labour markets have supported activity in the United States, but uncertainty about the US and global outlook has increased since the US election. In Japan the pace of expansion is expected to remain moderate, while the medium-term growth prospects of the United Kingdom are likely to be restrained by heightened uncertainty related to the country's future relations with the EU.

Euro area sovereign yields have risen recently and the EONIA forward curve has steepened.

"The ECB announced a coming reduction in its monthly asset purchases, but tried not say it was "tapering" by combining two announcements in one. European monetary policymakers retained their existing €80 bn per month in assets purchases that was due to end after March, but tacked on a further €60 bn in monthly buying through the end of December 2017, or longer if necessary.

The reduction in the pace of purchases is more of a reflection of the strains in some bond markets than it is of the ECB's view that the economy requires less stimulus. President Draghi highlighted low core inflation, even though the central bank's forecast shows headline inflation reaching target in 2019. The central bank appeared keen on taking the spotlight off of headline which is being buoyed by higher energy prices. The central bank is likely also trying to push back against the post-Trump move in bond markets, which has seen both interest rates and inflation expectations rebound sharply (Chart 3).

Ongoing balance sheet expansion, coupled with political risks in a number of Eurozone countries should keep the euro contained in the first quarter of next year.

Thereafter, a brighter outlook for both the economy and political risks should begin to see the currency gain ground against a US dollar that's best days are behind it. Look for a disappointing result for the populist Front National party in France's upcoming elections to be a turning point for political risk in the region".

Copyright © 2016 CIBC, eFXnews™

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0732 (1890)

$1.0652 (510)

$1.0593 (233)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0446

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0375 (1086)

$1.0340 (2206)

$1.0295 (2819)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 43558 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3209);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 54037 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (5077);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.23 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 21

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2612 (995)

$1.2516 (409)

$1.2421 (211)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2360

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2281 (460)

$1.2185 (558)

$1.2088 (397)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 10469 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1043);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 13467 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (2948);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.29 versus 1.31 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

According to the latest monthly report published by the Ministry of Finance of Germany, in the last quarter of this year, GDP will show a positive trend despite the weak performance of the individual indicators. In particular, the Ministry of Finance is worried about weak growth in exports and increases risk of foreign trade. However, employment recovery and the normal indicators of inflation are good signs. Also in the fourth quarter, an improvement in business sentiment and the growth of industrial orders is expected.

.

New Zealand's seasonally adjusted current account deficit increased to $1.9 billion in the September 2016 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. This is a small increase from the June quarter deficit of $1.8 billion and was funded by the banking sector.

Within the current account, New Zealand's export goods were worth $686 million less than import goods in the September 2016 quarter. The goods trade shortfall in the latest quarter was up $190 million from the June 2016 quarter, after accounting for usual seasonal patterns.

"New Zealand spent more on imports of goods, and earned less from exports of goods this quarter," international statistics senior manager Jason Attewell said.

Gross domestic product rose 1.1 percent in the September 2016 quarter, following an increase of 0.7 percent (revised) in the June 2016 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today.

"This quarter's rise points to broad-based growth," national accounts senior manager Gary Dunnet said. "Thirteen of the 16 industries were up, with the main weakness coming from agriculture."

Household spending continued its strong growth, increasing 1.6 percent this quarter, following a 2.0 percent increase in the June quarter.

"We've seen Kiwis spend more on domestic travel, accommodation, eating out, and recreation," Mr Dunnet said.

Exports edged back from last quarter's increase. While growth fell over the September quarter, export volumes remain high. Imports rose in the September quarter, reflecting large purchases of aircraft.

Service industries continued to grow, increasing 1.1 percent in the September quarter. The main drivers were business services; transport, postal and warehousing; and arts, recreation, and other services.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 0.3% in November 2016 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the first increase of a yearly rate of change since November 2012 (+1.0%). In October and in September 2016 the annual rates of change were -0.6% and -1.8%, respectively. From October to November 2016 the index rose by 0.7%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 0.4% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 0.3% in November 2016 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In October and in September 2016 the annual rates of change were -0.1% and -0.6%, respectively. From October to November 2016 the export price index rose by 0.5%.