(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 51.91 -0.40%

Gold 1,140.80 -0.17%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Shanghai Composite 3,122.57 -0.4069 -0.01%

Nikkei 225 19,391.60 -9.55 -0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 5,562.08 0.00 0.00%

FTSE 100 7,017.16 +5.52 +0.08%

CAC 40 4,822.77 -10.50 -0.22%

Xetra DAX 11,426.70 +22.69 +0.20%

S&P 500 2,262.53 +4.46 +0.20%

Dow Jones Industrial Average 19,883.06 +39.65 +0.20%

S&P/TSX Composite 15,269.85 +17.65 +0.12%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0401 -0,37%

GBP/USD $1,2392 -0,69%

USD/CHF Chf1,027 -0,03%

USD/JPY Y117,08 -0,71%

EUR/JPY Y121,78 -1,08%

GBP/JPY Y145,06 -1,42%

AUD/USD $0,7242 -0,73%

NZD/USD $0,6927 -0,40%

USD/CAD C$1,3406 +0,43%

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) November 0.7% 0.1%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) November -0.4% -0.2%

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance November 2.68

09:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln October 29.8

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance December -3 -5

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m October -1.2%

21:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals November 14%

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln November -846

Major US stock indices are moderately higher on Monday, hovering close to record levels, driven by the growth of the technology sector stocks. Trading activity in the market is low and likely to remain so, as many market participants go on vacation.

As shown by the latest survey, the acceleration of growth in jobs for the third month in a row and a greater degree of optimism about the prospects for business development in the year ahead. At the same time, cost pressures intensified in December, while the last increase in purchase prices was one of the fastest since mid-2015. On a seasonally adjusted, preliminary index of business activity in the US services sector from Markit reached 53.4 in December, slightly down from 54.6 in November, but above the neutral value of 50.0 tenth month in a row. The average reading for the last quarter of 2016 (54.2) indicated the steepest rise in output in the services sector in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Oil prices fell in response to concern about the increase in supply in the United States. However, some support oil quotes provided the delay in the supply of oil from Libya. On Sunday, the Libyan state-owned National Oil Co. suspended the planned production recovery in the western oil fields as rebels threatened to block the supply of oil. Experts warn, production recovery in Libya could affect the overall effectiveness of the OPEC agreement. If Libya is to increase oil production, it can cause other countries to the cartel on the larger production cuts.

Some analysts expect that oil prices will continue in early 2017 because of the deal between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and some other manufacturers, which implies a reduction of oil production by almost 1.8 mln. Barrels per day since January.

DOW index components closed mostly in positive territory (20 of 30). Most remaining shares rose United Technologies Corporation (UTX, + 2.08%). Outsider were shares of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK, -2.23%).

Most of the S & P sectors recorded increase. The leader turned out to be the technology sector (+ 0.5%). conglomerates (-1.7%) sectors fell most.

At the close:

DOW + 0.20% 19,883.88 +40.47

Nasdaq + 0.37% 5,457.44 +20.28

S & P + 0.20% 2,262.57 +4.50

Major U.S. stock-indexes higher on Monday in light trading, with the three major indexes hovering near record levels, driven by a rise in technology shares. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) were up 1%-2,1%, providing the biggest boost to the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

Most of Dow stocks in positive area (17 of 30). Top gainer - Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, +2.09%). Top loser - Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK, -1.55%).

Most of S&P sectors in positive area. Top gainer - Technology (+0.7%). Top loser - Conglomerates (-1.3%).

At the moment:

Dow 19823.00 +29.00 +0.15%

S&P 500 2259.25 +4.00 +0.18%

Nasdaq 100 4952.50 +36.75 +0.75%

Oil 53.23 +0.28 +0.53%

Gold 1141.90 +4.50 +0.40%

U.S. 10yr 2.54 -0.06

Polish equity market closed flat on Monday. The broad market measure, the WIG index, edged up 0.03%. Sector performance within the WIG Index was mixed. Utilities (+1.96%) outperformed, while informational technology (-1.46%) lagged behind.

The large-cap stocks' measure, the WIG30 Index, inched up 0.07%. In the index basket, thermal coal miner BOGDANKA (WSE: LWB) generated the biggest advance, soaring by 3.08%. Other major gainers were oil refiner PKN ORLEN (WSE: PKN) and all four gencos PGE (WSE: PGE), TAURON PE (WSE: TPE), ENERGA (WSE: ENG) and ENEA (WSE: ENA), adding between 1.24% and 2.73%. On the other side of the ledger, coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW) led the decliners with a 2.9% drop, followed by railway freight transport operator PKP CARGO (WSE: PKP), bank MBANK (WSE: MBK) and videogame developer CD PROJEKT (WSE: CDR), sliding by 2.36%, 2.29% and 2.25% respectively.

Crude oil futures nudged higher Friday morning as the dollar relented versus major rivals after surging to a 13-year high, says rttnews.

Disappointing housing data helped take the wind out of the dollar's sails, giving commodities a reprieve from steep mid-week losses.

The mid-week drop in crude oil prices was less pronounced, however, as the government reported a large drawdown in U.S oil inventories.

WTI light sweet crude oil was up 24 cents at $51.13 an ounce this morning, moving back near 18-month highs.

Last weekend, OPEC and Russia formalized plans to cut production as a way to keep oil prices afloat.

Economists surveyed by Financial Times suggest that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again not earlier than six months.

Fed's leaders want to wait and see the first steps of the future president of the United States, Donald Trump, the respondents said.

According to economists, the Fed will raise interest rates only twice in the next year, while the dot plot for the December meeting suggested three rate hikes. FT survey participants believe that at the end of 2017 the Fed rate will be located in the target range of 1% to 1.25%.

Japanese economists have raised the inflation forecast. This was the last of the positive developments for the Bank of Japan, which is trying to defeat deflation.

According to the survey of 41 economists conducted by the Japan Center for Economic Research, in the next fiscal year, which ends in late March 2018, inflation will reach 0.73%. In November the forecast was 0.61%.

Economists also raised the forecast for next year to 1.01% against 0.94% prior. These changes coincide with a reduction in expectations of further Bank of Japan easing policy.

Data from the national economy proved to be very good. Positively surprised both industrial production and retail sales. The latter rising by as much as 6.6%, which is the strongest since April 2014. For the production data is good both in the processing (+ 4.3%) and the seasonally adjusted data (+ 3%). Even construction output falls the least since March this year (-12.8%). Big surprise is also a clear acceleration in producer prices, which are rising as much as 1.7%. To a large extent this is due to a jump of prices in mining (+ 17.2%), but in manufacturing prices also grow faster, which means increasing inflationary pressures. Despite considerable surprises data passed completely without reaction of the market.

The market on Wall Street opened with cosmetic increases that are virtually negligible and we may speak about a flat early trading. It seems that the market after a strong rally begins to consolidate, which is the natural course of things.

An hour before the close of trading the WIG20 index was at the level of 1,921 points (+0,16%).

Adjusted for seasonal influences, the Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI Business Activity posted 53.4 in December, down slightly from 54.6 in November but above the 50.0 no-change value for the tenth consecutive month. The average reading for the final quarter of 2016 (54.2) pointed to the steepest upturn in service sector output since Q4 2015.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: "Although service sector growth cooled in December, the PMI surveys indicate that the economy continued to show solid, steady growth at the end of the year. The surveys are consistent with GDP rising at an annualised rate of 2.0% in the fourth quarter, fuelled mainly by improving domestic demand".

U.S. stock-index futures were flat amid slowing trading activity, as many market participants started taking off for the holidays.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,391.60 -9.55 -0.05%

Hang Seng 21,832.68 -188.07 -0.85%

Shanghai 3,118.43 -4.56 -0.15%

FTSE 7,016.79 +5.15 +0.07%

CAC 4,820.67 -12.60 -0.26%

DAX 11,400.43 -3.58 -0.03%

Crude $51.70 (-0.39%)

Gold $1,141.60 (+0.37%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

According to Reuters, Apple plans to file an appeal against the decision of the European Commission (EC) for the recovery of $ 14 billion in unpaid taxes. The company argued that the EU regulatory authorities have ignored the views of tax experts and corporate law, and deliberately chose a method to maximize the fine.

Recall, on August 30, the European Commission recognized that the Irish government illegally helped Apple significantly underestimate the amount of tax deductions for the period from 2003 to 2014. The Company is obliged to compensate for the missing amount plus interest. Apple (AAPL) and Ireland denied the charges.

AAPL shares fell in premarket trading to $ 115.85 (-0.10%).

Upgrades:

United Tech (UTX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Downgrades:

Merck (MRK) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies

Deutsche Bank (DB) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup

Other:

Walt Disney (DIS) added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill

EUR/USD 1.0300 (EUR 591m) 1.0500 (795m) 1.0600 (719m) 1.0650-55 (1.18bln) 1.0700 (984m) 1.0750 (2.41bln) 1.0800 (1.21bln)

USD/JPY 112.00 (USD 1.83bln) 114.00 (1.22bln) 115.50 (530m) 116.00 (USD 575m) 117.00 (510m) 118.00 (530m)

AUD/USD 0.7500 (AUD 584m)

"Something special happened last week: Fed funds - the interest rate on overnight dollars - rose to 66bps.

Why is this important? Because historically, it is not only the direction of US yields that matters for the dollar but also the absolute level.

When the USD joins the ranks of the high-yielders - defined as having at least the third highest central bank yield in the G10 - it typically rallies very strongly. The dollar entered such a regime yesterday: only Australia and New Zealand now have higher central bank rates than the US.

The last time this happened for more than a few months was in 1979 and 1997; the dollar rallied by 30% and 20% respectively (chart 1).

What about long-end yields? The US comes out on top here too: among the world's 20 largest bond markets, US 10-year treasury yields are now at least the third highest across the 5, 10 and 30-yr tenors.The dollar is truly a high-yielder.

Summing up, there is a threshold of yields beyond which the dollar rallies even if the rate differential stops widening. Indeed, the break of EUR/USD parity back in the 2000s was accompanied by a narrowing, not widening in the EU-US rate differential as portfolio flows flocked to the US from Europe (chart 2). From this perspective, a stabilization in UST yields attracting fresh buyers may end up being even more negative for EUR/USD.

We remain bearish and expect a break of parity down to at least 95 cents next year".

Copyright © 2016 DB, eFXnews™

EUR/USD

Offers : 1.0485 1.0500 1.0525 1.0550-55 1.0585 1.0600 1.0625-30 1.0650

Bids: 1.0450 1.0425-30 1.0400 1.0380 1.0350 1.0335 1.0300

GBP/USD

Offers : 1.2500-10 1.2530 1.2550 1.2565 1.2580 1.2600 1.2630-35 1.2650

Bids: 1.2455-60 1.2430 1.2400 1.2380-85 1.2350 1.2330-35 1.2300

EUR/GBP

Offers : 0.8400 0.8420-250.8450 0.8460-65 0.8480 0.8500

Bids: 0.8350-55 0.8330-35 0.8300 0.8285 0.8250

EUR/JPY

Offers : 123.00-05 123.30 123.60 123.85 124.00-10 124.30 124.50

Bids: 122.50 122.20 122.00 121.75 121.50 121.00

USD/JPY

Offers : 117.50-60 117.80 118.00 118.25-30 118.60 118.80 119.00

Bids: 117.00-116.95 116.70 116.50 116.30 116.00 115.85 115.50 115.00

AUD/USD

Offers : 0.7320 0.7350 0.7365 0.7380 0.7400 0.7430 0.7450 0.7485 0.7500

Bids: 0.7280 0.7265 0.7250 0.7225 0.7200 0.7170 0.7150

During the forenoon phase of today's session, the segment of blue chips managed to make up most of the morning losses and as we may see in the currency market, we return to the area of the Friday's closing. In the case of medium size companies, the morning downward impulse is sustained and mWIG40 once again coming to the tested on Friday support.

At the halfway point of today's session the WIG20 index was at the level of 1,915 points (-0,16%).

European stocks opened the last full trading week of the year mixed after two weeks of gains. Indexes traded mixed, as the region's financial sector was under pressure from events in Italy, while business confidence in Germany rose sharply.

The composite index of the largest companies in the region Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.2%, trading volumes have already started to decline with the approach of the European Christmas holidays.

Italian banks are the focus. Monte dei Paschi fell about 7% trying to attract 5 billion euros ($ 5.2 billion), to avoid applying for financial assistance from the state. On Sunday, the bank announced that the offer to institutional investors will be open until Thursday, while the offer to retail investors will be closed on Wednesday.

Deutsche Bank also contributed to the deterioration in sentiment in the European banking sector, resulting, after the lender has agreed to pay more than $ 40 million to settle an investigation.

Outside the region, the mood in the sector also worsened after Ukraine announced its largest bank insolvent.

As shown by the economic data, business confidence in Germany rose in December, reaching its highest level since April 2014. The business confidence index for the German economy, which is calculated Institute IFO, in December rose to 111 points from 110.4 the previous month. Analysts on average had expected an increase to 110.7 points.

At the same time, oil prices mark the rise as investors believe in commitments to reduce production starting in January.

Shares of Danone SA fell 2.8%, as the French company worsened the revenue forecast for the current fiscal year due to the weakness of the Spanish market.

The capitalization of the German manufacturer of roofing materials Braas Monier Building Group jumped 7.6%. The company agreed to the proposal of the American Standard Industries offer, which estimates it at 1.1 billion euros.

Volkswagen shares fell by 0.3%. The automaker's costs in connection with the diesel scandal could rise by another $ 1 billion due to payments on the larger and more expensive vehicles.

At the moment:

FTSE 6996.47 -15.17 -0.22%

DAX 11408.51 4.50 0.04%

CAC 4822.14 -11.13 -0.23%

UK companies are going to add more jobs in the next year, despite the uncertainty about future relations with the EU after the adoption of Brexit solutions.

Four out of ten companies across the UK will increase their workforces in the coming year, showed the latest Employment Trends Survey CBI / Pertemps Network Group from the Confederation of British Industry.

The balance of companies planning to add staff and those who expect job cuts amounted to 28 percent. Thus continues the optimistic trend seen every year since 2011.

Nevertheless, the balance of respondents expecting that the UK will be a more attractive place to work for people in the next five years, turned up to -21 percent from + 16 percent in 2015.

"With a record level of employment, more people than ever before now have to work, and a strong labor market look convincing to get positive results for 2017," said Josh Hardy, Deputy Director General of the CBI.

According to analysts of Brown Brothers Harriman, the current correction of the downtrend in the euro - a temporary phenomenon in the light of the Fed's statements and the ECB decision. Experts believe that in the $ 1.0500- $ 1.0530 there is a large number of sellers. The possible target will be $ 0.95. Also Brown Brothers Harriman advised to pay attention to the resistance area $ 1.0560. Analysts predict that the close above this level will deploy a large-scale correction on EUR / USD.

Hourly labour costs rose by 1.5% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.9% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2016, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. In the second quarter of 2016, hourly labour costs increased by 1.0% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.4% in the EU28. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The two main components of labour costs are wages & salaries and non-wage costs. In the euro area, wages & salaries per hour worked grew by 1.6% and the non-wage component by 1.2% in the third quarter of 2016 compared with the same quarter of 2015.

In the second quarter of 2016, the annual changes were +0.9% and +1.5% respectively. In the EU28, hourly wages & salaries rose by 2.0% and the non-wage component by 1.5% in the third quarter of 2016. In the second quarter of 2016, annual changes were +1.4% and +1.7% respectively.

EUR/USD 1.0300 (EUR 591m) 1.0500 (795m) 1.0600 (719m) 1.0650-55 (1.18bln) 1.0700 (984m) 1.0750 (2.41bln) 1.0800 (1.21bln)

USD/JPY 112.00 (USD 1.83bln) 114.00 (1.22bln) 115.50 (530m) 116.00 (USD 575m) 117.00 (510m) 118.00 (530m)

AUD/USD 0.7500 (AUD 584m)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

Dec 19 German business morale rose in December, a survey showed on Monday, hitting its highest level since February 2014 and supporting expectations that Europe's largest economy will rebound in the fourth quarter.

The Munich-based Ifo economic institute said its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, rose to 111.0 after from 110.4 in November.

The December reading compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for a value of 110.7.

This morning, New York futures for Brent rose 0.69% to $ 55.59 and WTI increased in value by 0.83% to $ 53.39 per barrel. Thus, the black gold is continuing gains on news of production cuts by OPEC countries and countries outside the cartel after nearly a year of negotiations.

WIG20 index opened at 1915.46 points (-0.16%)*

WIG 50943.74 -0.34%

WIG30 2209.31 -0.44%

mWIG40 4202.72 -0.41%

*/ - change to previous close

The cash market started the new week with a small discount at a rather modest turnover concentrated on the shares of KGHM and JSW. The German DAX also go down, but in a very modest scale of 0.06%. The first transactions on the Warsaw market confirm a negative response to the weekend events. In addition, we need to take an amendment to the nature of Friday's session, when the market was clearly drawn in the fight for the settlement price of the December futures contract series.

After fifteen minutes of trading the WIG20 was at the level of 1,897 pts. (-1,09%).

• At 11:00 GMT the Bundesbank Monthly Report

• At 18:30 GMT the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech

"Canada benefits from the improved growth outlook in the US, even if uncertainties as to the implications of the Trump victory for US-Canadian trade relations have risen markedly. The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at the December meeting and our base case remains unchanged rates over the next 12M, even if the probability of a H2 17 hike has increased.

With the outlook of near-term USD strength and the risk of a setback in oil prices, we still see risks skewed towards a higher USD/CAD over the coming months.

We forecast the cross at 1.35 in 1M (previously1.36), 1.34 in 3M (unchanged), 1.30 in 6M (unchanged) and 1.28 in 12M (unchanged)".

Copyright © 2016 Danske, eFXnews™

According to the report published today by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economic growth rate will amount to 6.5% in 2017. This year, China's GDP will grow by 6.7%.

The report noted that against the background of decline in world trade, igures in 2016 were the weakest since 2008, is expected a slowdown in the Chinese economy. "Low growth in global demand, reducing private investment and foreign capital companies in the Chinese economy, as well as the slowdown in domestic consumption and the excessive growth of mortgage lending were the main reasons for the slowdown of the Chinese economy", - the report says.

Businesses are wrapped in optimism. A net 22% of businesses are optimistic about the year ahead, up 1 point on the month prior. The construction sector is the most optimistic and manufacturing the least, but all sectors sit on the positive side of the ledger.

Businesses are jolly when they consider the outlook for their own firms. A net 40% of businesses expect better times for their own business with positivity across all the five major sectors. That's 12 points above the long-run average and flags very strong growth. Construction sector activity expectations are poles ahead of the others, sitting at a celebratory net 63%

According to data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance, the total trade balance amounted to ¥ 152.5 billion in November, below the forecast of ¥ 227.4 billion and ¥ 496.2 the previous value Bln.

Exports decreased at an annual rate of -0.4% in November, while analysts had expected a decline of -2.3% y / y. Exports from Japan to China increased by 4.4% y / y, and in Asia in general +3.4% y / y. Exports from Japan to Europe fell by -2.2%.

Imports fell less than experts expected in November, -8.8% y / y after declining by 16.5% y / y in October

The Government is delivering on its plan for economic growth and jobs, with the budget maintaining an improving trajectory consistent with the Government's fiscal strategy. The budget is projected to return to surplus in 2020-21, the same year as at the 2016 Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO).

The net impact of decisions taken since the 2016 PEFO is an improvement to the underlying cash balance of $2.5 billion over the forward estimates. The Government has also made significant headway in legislating measures to repair the budget, with over $22 billion of budget repair measures implemented since the election. The Australian economy continues to transition from the investment phase to the production phase of the mining boom.

Economic growth is expected to increase over the forecast period, as the drag from the decline in mining investment dissipates and the economy transitions to broader-based growth, supported by historically low interest rates and a lower Australian dollar.

Friday's session on the New York stock market has brought a slight declines in the major indexes. The uncertainty in the market caused by the interception of a Chinese ship US unmanned submarine. At the close the Dow Jones Industrial fell by 0.04 percent, Nasdaq Composite by 0.36 percent and the S&P500 lost 0.18 percent.

Asian markets are dominated by the red color, although besides the discount of 0.8% in Hong Kong drops are cosmetic. Contracts in the US are slightly on the gain and thus work out a modest loss from the last day of the previous week.

New week on the Warsaw market begin with a political event, which slightly spoils the mood around the Polish asset and this is a new series of opposition protests. Fortunately, in the last hours the temperature of the dispute seems to fall and began the search for a compromise. The zloty remains relatively stable this morning, which means that we are rather not in danger of discount as a result of a new political dispute.

In today's macro calendar this morning readings of the German Ifo index will be published, in the afternoon we will know a series of data from our national economy, industrial production, retail sales and producer prices.

European stocks gained Friday, with drugmaker shares showing strength, as the Stoxx Europe 600 notched its highest close of the year.

U.S. stocks closed lower Friday, with the Dow industrials swinging to a loss, following reports that a Chinese warship seized an underwater U.S. Navy drone in international waters off the coast of the Philippines. Even as the Dow was curtailed from its advance to the psychologically important 20,000 level, the blue-chip average still nabbed its longest weekly winning streak in more than a year, rising six weeks in a row.

Markets were broadly lower Monday as Japanese stocks were hit by a strengthening yen, and Chinese markets continued to be rattled by the bond selloff. Chinese stocks edged down amid fears that money is exiting China's capital markets, as suggested by a sharp selloff in government bonds that began last week.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0722 (434)

$1.0674 (403)

$1.0616 (225)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0463

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0368 (1079)

$1.0329 (1871)

$1.0282 (2838)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 42399 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3207);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 52240 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (5571);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.23 versus 1.22 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2714 (484)

$1.2618 (994)

$1.2523 (333)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2481

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2381 (273)

$1.2285 (342)

$1.2188 (533)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 9983 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (994);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 12819 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (2954);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.28 versus 1.30 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.