French President Francois Hollande said on Monday that the French economy is expected to grow 1% this year and 1.5% next year. But he added that this year's growth would not be enough to reduce unemployment.
Hollande noted that the country's budget deficit is expected to be 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and 3.3% in 2016.
The French president also said that he expects the Chinese economy to expand in the long-term period.
The European Central Bank (ECB) purchased €51.6 billion of public and private debt under its quantitative-easing program in August, compared to €61.3 billion in July.
ECB'S asset buying programme is intended to run to September 2016.
The ECB bought €42.8 billion of government and agency bonds in July, €7.5 billion of covered bonds, and €1.3 billion of asset-backed securities.
The central purchased €11.9 billion of government and agency bonds, €1.0 billion of covered bonds, and €382 million of asset-backed securities last week.
According to data released by the People's Bank of China PBoC), China's foreign-exchange reserves declined by $93.9 billion to $3.56 trillion at the end of August, compared with $3.65 trillion in July. Currency reserves have been falling from $3.99 trillion in June 2014.
The recent decline is the result of the central bank's intervention to stop to stop the yuan fall and to limit capital outflows from the country.
EURUSD 1.0900 (734m), 1.0985, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1075 (701m), 1.1100 (1.37bn), 1.1115, 1.1130 (599m), 1.1160, 1.1250, 1.1300
USDJPY 118.70, 119.40, 119.55, 120.00, 120.40, 120.75, 121.00, 121.25
AUDUSD 0.6900, 0.7000
NZDUSD 0.6240
AUDNZD 1.1000 (400m), 1.1300 (1.2bn)
EURJPY 132.00
The Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has been elected on Sunday as board chairman of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The BIS is based in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS Board is responsible for determining the strategic and policy direction of the BIS. The board includes the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen
Weidmann will replace the Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer, who will retire as the Bank of France Governor on October 31.
Weidmann's term will be for three years and begins on November 1.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) August -0.4% 1.0%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) July 112.3 112.2
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) July 106.5 104.9
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July -0.9% Revised From -1.4% 1% 0.7%
06:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) July 0.9% Revised From 1.0% 0.5%
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 531 Revised From 532 540
08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence September 18.4 13.6
12:00 Canada Bank holiday
12:00 U.S. Bank holiday
The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.S. Markets in the U.S. are closed for a public holiday on Monday.
The situation regarding the interest rate hike by the Fed remained unclear. The U.S. Labor Department released the labour market data on Friday. The U.S. economy added 173,000 jobs in August, missing expectations for a rise of 220,000 jobs, after a gain of 245,000 jobs in July. July's figure was revised up from a rise of 215,000 jobs.
The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, exceeding expectations for a decline to 5.2%. It was the lowest level since April 2008.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August, beating forecasts of a 0.2% gain, after a 0.2% increase in July.
The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index dropped to 13.6 in September from 18.4 in August. It was the lowest level since February.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
The decline was driven by a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
"Investors now see the slowdown in China as well as in other emerging markets as a significant burden for the euro zone's economy, which can no longer be compensated by good developments in the domestic euro zone economy or the United States," Sentix said.
Destatis released its industrial production data for Germany on Monday. German industrial production rose 0.7% in July, missing expectations for a 1.0% gain, after a 0.9% decline in June. June's figure was revised up from a 1.4% drop.
The output of capital goods increased 2.8% in July, energy output climbed 1.9%, and the production in the construction sector was up 3.2%, while the production of intermediate goods fell 0.8%.
The output of consumer goods decreased 3.7%.
The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.
EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed
GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.5278
USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 1% -0.4%
23:50 Japan GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter II 3.9% -1.8%
EUR/USD
Offers1.1225 1.1190/00
Bids 1.1100 1.1060-50
GBP/USD
Offers 1.5315/25 1.5300
Bids 1.5120/15 1.5055/50 1.5035/30
EUR/GBP
Offers 0.7395/00
Bids
EUR/JPY
Offers 134.50 134.00 133.45/50
Bids 132.50 132.00
USD/JPY
Offers 120.50 119.95/00 119.70
Bids 119.05/00 118.50
AUD/USD
Offers 0.7100 0.7045/50 0.7000 0.6950
Bids 0.6850 0.6800 0.6750
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at G20 summit on Friday that there is no reason for the yuan to fall further.
Zhu Jun, head of the international department at the PBoC, noted that the yuan devaluation was not an attempt to gain an advantage over other exporters. He added that the Chinese government expected the market turbulence in China to be "pretty close to the end".
Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said on Friday that he expects China's economy to expand about 7% for the next four or five years.
EUR/USD: $1.1050(E478mn), $1.1075(E701mn), $1.1100(E1.37bn), $1.1115(E321mn), $1.1130(E599mn), $1.1250(E270mn)
USD/JPY: Y121.25($400mn)
AUD/NZD: NZ$1.1000(A$399mn), NZ$1.1300(A$1.2bn)
The U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said at G20 summit on Friday that China should refrain from competitive devaluation.
"China should allow its exchange rate to reflect underlying fundamentals, avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments, and refrain from competitive devaluation," he said.
The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) released its job advertisements for Australia on Monday. Job advertisements in Australia climbed 1.0% in August, after a 0.5% decline in July. July's figure was revised down from a 0.4% fall.
Internet job advertisements increased 1.0% in August, while newspaper advertisements gained 0.8%.
On a yearly basis, job advertisement rose 8.7% in August, after a 9.2% in July.
"The recent strength in employment growth has been concentrated in a range of labour intensive services industries, however job losses in mining, mining-related construction and manufacturing are likely to weigh on employment growth over the next year,'' ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan said.
Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index dropped to 13.6 in September from 18.4 in August. It was the lowest level since February.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
The decline was driven by a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
"Investors now see the slowdown in China as well as in other emerging markets as a significant burden for the euro zone's economy, which can no longer be compensated by good developments in the domestic euro zone economy or the United States," Sentix said.
The current conditions index fell to 15.0 in September from 15.3 in August.
The expectations index plunged to 12.3 in September from 21.5 in August, the lowest level since December 2014
German investor confidence index declined to 20.6 from 25.7
The Australian Industry Group (AiG) released its construction data for Australia on late Sunday evening. The Ai Group/HIA Australian Performance of Construction Index rose to 53.8 in August from 47.1 in July.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
The increase was driven by a rise in new orders, which jumped to 57.6 in August from 45.4 in July.
"A healthy August update for commercial construction is encouraging, but needs to be sustained. As new housing activity remains strong rather than achieving further growth, commercial construction and infrastructure investment needs to pick up the baton," HIA Chief Economist, Harley Dale, said.
Japan's Cabinet Office released its preliminary leading index data on Monday. The leading index declined to 104.9 in July from 106.5 in June. It was the lowest level since March.
Japan's coincident index was down to 112.2 in July from 112.3 in June.
The Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased to 540.416 billion Swiss francs in August from 531.201 billion francs in July.
July's figure was revised down from 531.820 billion francs.
Destatis released its industrial production data for Germany on Monday. German industrial production rose 0.7% in July, missing expectations for a 1.0% gain, after a 0.9% decline in June. June's figure was revised up from a 1.4% drop.
The output of capital goods increased 2.8% in July, energy output climbed 1.9%, and the production in the construction sector was up 3.2%, while the production of intermediate goods fell 0.8%.
The output of consumer goods decreased 3.7%.
China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised its gross domestic product (GDP) on Monday. The Chinese economy expanded 7.3% in 2014, down from a 7.4% growth reported earlier. It was the lowest growth since 1990.
The downward revision was driven by a weaker rise in the services sector than previously reported. The services sector rose by 7.8% in 2014, down from the previous estimate of a 8.1% increase.
The agriculture sector grew 4.1% in 2014, while the secondary sector increased by 7.3%.
China's economy expanded 7% in the first half of 2015.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) August -0.4% 1.0%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) July 112.3 112.2
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) July 106.5 104.9
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July -0.9% Revised From -1.4% 1% 0.7%
06:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) July 0.6% 0.4%
Volatility of the U.S. dollar was low after it rose moderately amid jobs data on Friday. The U.S. economy created 173,000 jobs in August vs 220,000 expected. Meanwhile the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.3% reported previously. Average hourly earnings rose 2.2% beating expectations.
The yen fell against the greenback amid growth in stock indices in Shanghai and Tokyo. Demand for this safe-haven currency declined amid investors' optimism.
The pound little changed ahead of Thursday's Bank of England meeting. Most experts expect the bank to leave its interest rates unchanged. Minutes of the meeting are likely to show whether policymakers are concerned about China's slowing economy.
The Australian dollar slightly rose after data showed that the AiG Performance of Construction Index rose to 53.8 in August from 47.1 reported previously. A high reading of the index is positive for the AUD.
EUR/USD: the pair fluctuated within $1.1140-75 in Asian trade
USD/JPY: the pair rose to Y119.60
GBP/USD: the pair traded within $1.5185-00
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 532
08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence September 18.4
23:50 Japan Current Account, bln July 558.6 1715
23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 1% -0.4%
23:50 Japan GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter II 3.9% -1.8%
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1347 (1342)
$1.1300 (662)
$1.1247 (560)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1141
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1063 (942)
$1.1021 (2587)
$1.0968 (2178)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 9 is 40777 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3650);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 9 is 54459 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5751);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.34 versus 1.47 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 4
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.5406 (583)
$1.5309 (504)
$1.5213 (1188)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.5186
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.5089 (1177)
$1.4993 (1612)
$1.4895 (878)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 9 is 15297 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (1294);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 9 is 14774 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5200 (1790);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 4
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1149 +0,28%
GBP/USD $1,5167 -0,55%
USD/CHF Chf0,9715 -0,20%
USD/JPY Y118,98 -0,93%
EUR/JPY Y132,66 -0,64%
GBP/JPY Y180,49 -1,47%
AUD/USD $0,6907 -1,49%
NZD/USD $0,6275 -1,74%
USD/CAD C$1,3277 +0,71%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) August -0.4%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) July 112.3
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) July 106.5
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July -1.4% 1%
06:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) July 0.6%
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 532
08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence September 18.4
12:00 Canada Bank holiday
12:00 U.S. Bank holiday
23:50 Japan Current Account, bln July 558.6 1715
23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 1% -0.4%
23:50 Japan GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter II 3.9% -1.8%