The Japanese yen has strengthened considerably against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since 12 November, 2014. Support currency exerted intensification of risk aversion on the background of falling global stock markets and lower oil prices. "Concerns about global economic growth increased, and the Bank of Japan steps to reduce interest rates have not been able to change the trend of the movement of the yen," - said analyst Joe Manimbo Western Union.
The attention of investors is also switched on Yellen speech, which will be held on Wednesday and Thursday. If Yellen will signal the likelihood that the Fed will not raise rates this year, the dollar will likely continue to decline against the yen. In general, analysts believe that the performance Yellen will be neutral and wait to confirm the Fed's position. However, it is likely to once again demonstrate the optimistic view on the economy and inflation, although emphasize intensified the uncertainty of the forecast. The tone of speech Yellen is likely to be "dovish" that confirms a reduced likelihood of a rate hike in March. According to CME, futures on the Fed show only 2% probability of a rate hike in March and 4% chance in April.
The pound depreciated significantly against the dollar, approaching to a minimum on February 2 as the flight of investors from the risks of reduced demand for high-risk currency. Little influenced by data on Britain. As shown by a study conducted in Britain, the confidence of local companies fell to a 3-year low against the background of instability in world markets due to concerns about the Chinese economy, and falling oil prices. Also on the trust put pressure Brekzita concerns. The index of business optimism BDO touched lows in 2013. BDO Analysts said that the results of the study showed that companies expect a slowdown of production to levels below the long-term trend. "The problems of the world economy put pressure on business confidence and increase the uncertainty caused by the upcoming referendum", said representative of BDO Peter Hemington.
The euro rose against the dollar significantly, returning with all the previously lost positions. Analysts say that the fall of the stock markets and oil has increased the attractiveness of the euro as a funding currency. Part of statistics have affected the course of trading. The survey results from the Sentix showed that investor confidence indicator fell to 6 in February from 9.6 in January. According to the forecast index was down to 7.2. It was the lowest rate since April 2015. The index of current conditions survey fell to 10.5 (the lowest rate since April 2015) compared to 13 points in January. At the same time, the expectations index showed a sharp drop to 1.5 from 6.3 a month ago. It was the lowest since November 2014. Investor confidence in Germany has reached its weakest level since November 2014, investor sentiment index fell to 14.5 in February from 18.1 in January. The expectations index fell to -2.6 in February from 1.8 in January and the current situation index fell to 33 from 35.6 in January.
In addition, the report submitted by the Conference Board, showed that the index of conditions in the US labor market, representing a set of labor market indicators rose again in January. According to the data, the January index of conditions in the labor market increased to 128.93 compared to 127.71 in December. In annual terms, the index rose by 1.9%. "Employment Trends Index rose for the second month in a row, which reduces the likelihood of a further slowdown in employment growth, - said Gad Levanon, managing director of Macroeconomic Research Conference Board -. However, the component-time job in the industry sector fell sharply in January, as well it is one of the best leading indicators of employment growth, we will monitor it closely in the coming months. "
Major U.S. stock-indexes in the red area in volatile trading on Monday, as technology stocks continued to sell off and oil prices remained under pressure, sending investors scurrying to safe-haven assets. Crude oil prices eased from their session lows, but were still down about 2%.
Most of Dow stocks in negative area (25 of 30). Top looser The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, -5,76%). Top gainer - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, +1,45%).
All S&P sectors in negative area. Top looser - Conglomerates (-3,0%).
At the moment:
Dow 15820.00 -311.00 -1.93%
S&P 500 1839.00 -36.25 -1.93%
Nasdaq 100 3931.25 -90.75 -2.26%
Oil 30.20 -0.69 -2.23%
Gold 1194.00 +36.30 +3.14%
U.S. 10yr 1.77 -0.08
Polish equity market plunged on Monday. The broad market measure, the WIG Index, dropped by 1.16%. Except for food sector (+1.00%) and materials (+0.89%), every sector in the WIG Index declined, with media segment (-2.00%) lagging behind.
The large-cap WIG30 Index fell by 1.16%. Within the index components, banking sector names MBANK (WSE: MBK) and BZ WBK (WSE: BZW) were the weakest names, tumbling by 3.59% and 3.01% respectively. They were followed by media- and telecom-group CYFROWY POLSAT (WSE: CPS), clothing retailer LPP (WSE: LPP) and genco ENEA (WSE: ENA), declining between 2.23% and 2.52%. On the other side of the ledger, coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW) became the best performer, climbing by 7.58%. Other advancers were copper producer KGHM (WSE: KGH), agricultural holding KERNEL (WSE: KER), FMCG wholesaler EUROCASH (WSE: EUR) and gencos ENERGA (WSE: ENG) and TAURON PE (WSE: TPE), adding between 0.09% and 0.81%.
Stock indices closed lower on concerns over the slowdown in the global economy and on falling oil prices. Oil prices declined on concerns over the global oil oversupply. There are no signs for an emergency meeting to stabilise the oil market.
China's foreign-exchange reserves data added to speculation on the slowdown in the Chinese economy. According to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) on Sunday, China's foreign-exchange reserves declined by $99.5 billion to $3.23 trillion in January, after a drop by $107.9 billion in December. It was the lowest level since 2012.
Meanwhile, the economic data from Eurozone was weak. Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index slid to 6.0 in February from 9.6 in January. It was the lowest level since April 2015.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
"Although the values for Asia ex Japan recover something, this month results do not shape a fundamentally new image. In particular, the loss of momentum in Germany and the United States weighs heavily and stresses that the global economy is now in a very fragile state," Sentix said in its statement.
Indexes on the close:
Name Price Change Change %
FTSE 100 5,689.36 -158.70 -2.71 %
DAX 8,979.36 -306.87 -3.30 %
CAC 40 4,066.31 -134.36 -3.20 %
Oil prices declined on concerns over the global oil oversupply. There are no signs for an emergency meeting to stabilise the oil market.
Venezuela's oil minister Eulogio Del Pino and Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi met on Sunday. Both oil ministers said that the meeting was positive.
The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. rigs declined by 31 rigs to 467 last week. It was the biggest drop since April 2015 and the lowest level since March 2010.
Combined oil and gas rigs declined by 48 to 571.
WTI crude oil for March delivery declined to $30.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent crude oil for March fell to $33.68 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
Gold price rose on increasing demand for safe-haven assets as global stock markets dropped due to concerns over the weak global economic growth and falling oil prices.
According to the People's Bank of China (PBoC), China's gold holdings rose by 0.9% to 57.18 million ounces in January from 56.66 million ounces in December.
The central bank's gold holdings climbed by 7.2% since July 2015. The PBoC announced last July that the country's holdings jumped 57% since 2009.
SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased 0.7% to 698.46 tonnes on Friday.
March futures for gold on the COMEX today increased to 1196.30 dollars per ounce.
The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) released its job advertisements figures on Monday. Job advertisements rose 1.0% in January, after a 0.1% fall in December. That was the eighth consecutive increase.
The increase was mainly driven by a rise in internet job advertisements, which climbed by 1.1% in January.
"There is some evidence in the trend numbers that job ads have lost a little momentum in the past six months. This is only an early signal and will need to be confirmed by more data. Overall we see the job ads series, in conjunction with other leading indicators of labour demand, as consistent with further moderate employment gains in early 2016, enough at least to keep the unemployment rate stable," the ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan noted.
The Conference Board released its Employment Trends Index (ETI) for the U.S on Monday. The index increased to 128.93 in January from 128.71 in December. December's figure was revised down from 129.30.
Five of the eight components climbed.
"The Employment Trends Index rose for the second month in a row, reducing the likelihood of further slowing in employment growth. However, the temporary help industry component declined sharply in January, and because it is one of the best leading indicators of employment growth, we will monitor it closely in the coming months," Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labour Market Research at The Conference Board, Gad Levanon, said.
According to the People's Bank of China (PBoC), China's gold holdings rose by 0.9% to 57.18 million ounces in January from 56.66 million ounces in December.
The central bank's gold holdings climbed by 7.2% since July 2015. The PBoC announced last July that the country's holdings jumped 57% since 2009.
The European Central Bank (ECB) purchased €13.16 billion of government and agency bonds under its quantitative-easing program last week.
The ECB bought €2.37 billion of covered bonds, and €92 million of asset-backed securities.
The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi hinted at a press conference in January that the central bank may add further stimulus measures at its meeting in March as downside risks rose.
Japan's Cabinet Office released Eco Watchers' Index figures on Monday. Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index fell to 46.6 in January from 48.7 in December.
Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index increased to 49.5 in January from 48.2 in December.
A reading above 50 indicates optimism, while a reading below 50 indicates pessimism.
U.S. stock-index futures dropped.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 17,004.3 +184.71 +1.10%
Hang Seng Closed
Shanghai Composite Closed
FTSE 5,736.45 -111.61 -1.91%
CAC 4,092.4 -108.27 -2.58%
DAX 9,037.31 -248.92 -2.68%
Crude oil $29.86 (-3.33%)
Gold $1179.40 (+1.87%)
Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released its labour cash earnings data on Monday. Labour cash earnings in Japan rose 0.1% year-on-year in December, a flat reading in November.
Contractual earnings increased 0.6% year-on-year in December, while special cash earnings gained 0.7%.
Total real wages slid 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% drop in November.
(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)
Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE | ABX | 11.86 | 1.89% | 105.9K |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 12.83 | -0.39% | 13.5K |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 42.18 | -0.61% | 2.2K |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 80.61 | -0.73% | 2.8K |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 9.83 | -0.81% | 0.8K |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 87.11 | -0.83% | 0.2K |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 99.66 | -0.88% | 0.7K |
AT&T Inc | T | 36.55 | -0.89% | 33.2K |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 66.4 | -0.90% | 2.1K |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 50.49 | -0.94% | 2.7K |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 110.61 | -0.99% | 1.2K |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 125.96 | -1.03% | 1K |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 114.18 | -1.06% | 6.2K |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 52.77 | -1.12% | 0.2K |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 28.69 | -1.17% | 10.4K |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 77.5 | -1.17% | 0.8K |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 11.31 | -1.22% | 7.5K |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 59.01 | -1.32% | 1.9K |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 114.75 | -1.44% | 1.3K |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 48.66 | -1.46% | 1.4K |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 92.5 | -1.49% | 2.1K |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 58 | -1.51% | 0.4K |
General Electric Co | GE | 28.11 | -1.51% | 14.5K |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 92.6 | -1.51% | 226.5K |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 49.36 | -1.59% | 86.8K |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 78.8 | -1.60% | 72.3K |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 28.08 | -1.61% | 19.6K |
Yahoo! Inc., NASDAQ | YHOO | 27.52 | -1.61% | 20.8K |
Boeing Co | BA | 120.51 | -1.67% | 0.2K |
American Express Co | AXP | 53.07 | -1.69% | 1.4K |
Intel Corp | INTC | 28.55 | -1.69% | 6.7K |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 39.1 | -1.91% | 3.4K |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 64.8 | -2.00% | 2.8K |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 81.2 | -2.03% | 6.8K |
Nike | NKE | 56 | -2.05% | 8.5K |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 53.35 | -2.09% | 12.1K |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 56.54 | -2.10% | 25.3K |
Visa | V | 70 | -2.15% | 3.0K |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 153.01 | -2.21% | 9.0K |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 22.37 | -2.27% | 53.6K |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 667.99 | -2.28% | 14.5K |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 7.93 | -2.34% | 1.9K |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 15.27 | -2.86% | 26.1K |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 486.67 | -3.08% | 27.3K |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 100.7 | -3.24% | 152.3K |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 5.48 | -3.52% | 93.8K |
International Paper Company | IP | 33.65 | -3.77% | 48.8K |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 156.06 | -4.03% | 15.4K |
USD/JPY: 116.00 (USD 210m) 117.00 (250m) 117.75 (200m)
EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 640m) 1.1100 (608m) 1.1200 (475m)
GBP/USD: 1.4500 (GBP 344m) 1.4600 (287m, 1.4700 (518m)
AUD/USD: 0.7000 AUD (701m) 0.7025 (357m) 0.7050 (333m) 0.7065 (728m) 0.7175 (2.2bln)
AUD/JPY: 82.00 (AUD 200m) 83.25 (252m)
Upgrades:
Cisco Systems (CSCO) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie
Downgrades:
Other:
Walt Disney (DIS) target lowered to $131 from $133 at Topeka Capital Markets
Cisco Systems (CSCO) target lowered to $30 from $34 at Stifel
Apple (AAPL) reiterated with a Buy at Mizuho; target $120
Cisco Systems (CSCO) removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its leading indicators on Monday. The composite leading indicator decreased to 99.7 in December from 99.8 in November.
It signalled stable growth in the Eurozone as a whole, in Germany and Italy.
There were signs of firming growth momentum in France and India.
The index for the U.S., the U.K., Canada and Japan pointed to an easing in growth momentum.
The index for China confirmed the tentative signs of stabilisation.
The index for Russia showed signs of a loss in growth momentum.
Statistics Canada released housing market data on Monday. Building permits in Canada climbed 11.3% in December, exceeding expectations for a 5.0% rise, after a 19.9% drop in November. November's figure was revised down from a 19.6% decrease.
The increase was driven by a rise in building permits for multi-family dwellings in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta.
Building permits for non-residential construction were up 2.5% in December, while permits in the residential sector jumped 16.3%.
In 2015 as whole, buildings permits were flat.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
00:00 China Bank holiday
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January -0.1% 1.0%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY January 0.0% 0.1%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 48.7 46.6
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 48.2 49.5
09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence February 9.6 7.2 6.0
The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.S.
Market participants continued to eye Friday's U.S. labour market data. According to the U.S. Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in January, missing expectations for a rise of 190,000 jobs, after a gain of 262,000 jobs in December.
Job creation slowed in January. That could mean that the Fed might delay its further interest rate hikes. The Fed hiked its interest rates by a 0.25% to between 0.25% and 0.50% in December.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in January from 5.0% in December. It was the lowest level since February 2008. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.0%.
Average hourly earnings climbed 0.5% in January, exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% gain, after a flat reading in December.
The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the release of the weak economic data from the Eurozone. Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index slid to 6.0 in February from 9.6 in January. It was the lowest level since April 2015.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
"Although the values for Asia ex Japan recover something, this month results do not shape a fundamentally new image. In particular, the loss of momentum in Germany and the United States weighs heavily and stresses that the global economy is now in a very fragile state," Sentix said in its statement.
The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.
The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Canadian building permits data. The Canadian building permits are expected to fall 5.0% in December, after a 19.6% rise in November.
EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.1098
GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.4377
USD/JPY: the currency pair decreased to Y116.11
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December -19.6% 5%
15:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index January 2.9
17:05 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
EUR/USD
Offers 1.1160 1.1185 1.1200 1.1220 1.1235 1.125011275 1.1300
Bids 1.1120 1.1100 1.1080 1.1065 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000 1.0980 1.0950
GBP/USD
Offers 1.4550 1.4575-80 1.4600 1.4625 1.4645-50 1.4665 1.4685 1.4700
Bids 1.4500 1.4475-80 1.4450 1.4430 1.4400 1.4385 1.4365 1.4350
EUR/GBP
Offers 0.7685 0.7700 0.7720-25 0.7750 0.7765 0.7780 0.7800 0.7830 0.7850
Bids 0.7660 0.7640 0.7625 0.7600 0.7585 0.7565 0.7550
EUR/JPY
Offers 131.00 131.30 131.50 131.80-85 132.00 132.25 132.50
Bids 130.35 130.00 129.80 129.50 129.30 129.00
USD/JPY
Offers 117.50-55 117.80 118.00 118.25 118.45-50 118.70 118.85 119.00
Bids 117.00 116.80 116.55-60 116.25 116.00 115.85 115.65 115.50 115.30 115.00
AUD/USD
Offers 0.7150 0.7175-80 0.7200 0.7220 0.7245-50 0.7270 0.7285 0.7300
Bids 0.7100 0.7080 0.7060 0.7030 0.7000 0.6985 0.6950
Stock indices traded lower on speculation that the Fed will delay its further interest rate hikes after Friday's release of the U.S. labour market data. According to the U.S. Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in January, missing expectations for a rise of 190,000 jobs, after a gain of 262,000 jobs in December.
Job creation slowed in January. That could mean that the Fed might delay its further interest rate hikes. The Fed hiked its interest rates by a 0.25% to between 0.25% and 0.50% in December.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in January from 5.0% in December. It was the lowest level since February 2008. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.0%.
Average hourly earnings climbed 0.5% in January, exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% gain, after a flat reading in December.
Meanwhile, the economic data from Eurozone was weak. Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index slid to 6.0 in February from 9.6 in January. It was the lowest level since April 2015.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
"Although the values for Asia ex Japan recover something, this month results do not shape a fundamentally new image. In particular, the loss of momentum in Germany and the United States weighs heavily and stresses that the global economy is now in a very fragile state," Sentix said in its statement.
Current figures:
Name Price Change Change %
FTSE 100 5,750.18 -97.88 -1.67 %
DAX 9,051.85 -234.38 -2.52 %
CAC 40 4,103.4 -97.27 -2.32 %
The Bank of France released its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for France on Monday. French economy is expected to expand at 0.4% in the first quarter, after a 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter.
The manufacturing business confidence index increased to 101 in January from 100 in December. Companies expect a slight growth in activity in February.
The services business sentiment index remained unchanged at 96 in January. But services companies expect a rise in activity in February.
The construction business sentiment index remained unchanged at 96 in January. Companies expect a slight increase in activity in February.
Spanish statistical office INE released its industrial production figures for Spain on Monday. Industrial production in Spain declined 0.2% in December, after a 0.1% gain in November.
On a yearly basis, industrial production in Spain climbed at adjusted 3.7% in December, after a 4.3% increase in November. November's figure was revised up from a 4.2% gain.
Output of capital goods jumped at seasonally adjusted 7.7% year-on-year in December, output of intermediate goods climbed 6.6%, energy production was down 3.5%, while consumer goods output rose 2.4%.
In 2015 as whole, industrial production rose 3.2%.
Japan's Ministry of Finance released its current account data for Japan late Sunday evening. Japan's current account surplus fell to ¥960.7 billion in December from ¥1,143.5 billion in November, missing expectations for a surplus of ¥987.0 billion.
The goods trade deficit turned into a surplus of ¥188.7 billion in December, up from a deficit of ¥271.5 billion in November.
Exports dropped at an annual rate of 11.8% in December, while imports plunged 18.9%.
In 2015 as whole, the current account increased to ¥16.641 trillion from ¥2.645 trillion in 2014.
The trade balance declined to a deficit of ¥643.4 billion in 2015 from a deficit of ¥10.401 trillion in 2014.
Exports rose 1.5% in 2015, while imports dropped 10.3%.
February 9
Before the Open:
Coca-Cola (KO). Consensus EPS $0.37, Consensus Revenue $9910.48 mln
After the Close:
Walt Disney (DIS). Consensus EPS $1.46, Consensus Revenue $14795.57 mln
February 10
After the Close:
Cisco Systems (CSCO). Consensus EPS $0.54, Consensus Revenue $11768.22 mln
Tesla Motors (TSLA). Consensus EPS $0.09, Consensus Revenue $1807.34 mln
Twitter (TWTR). Consensus EPS $0.12, Consensus Revenue $709.97 mln
February 11
After the Close:
American Intl (AIG). Consensus EPS -$0.92, Consensus Revenue $14151.50 mln
Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index slid to 6.0 in February from 9.6 in January. It was the lowest level since April 2015.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
"Although the values for Asia ex Japan recover something, this month results do not shape a fundamentally new image. In particular, the loss of momentum in Germany and the United States weighs heavily and stresses that the global economy is now in a very fragile state," Sentix said in its statement.
The current conditions index fell to 10.5 in February from 13.0 in January.
The expectations index plunged to 1.5 in February from 6.3 in January.
German investor confidence index dropped to 14.5 in February from 18.1 in January.
The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. rigs declined by 31 rigs to 467 last week. It was the biggest drop since April 2015 and the lowest level since March 2010.
Combined oil and gas rigs declined by 48 to 571.
According to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) on Sunday, China's foreign-exchange reserves declined by $99.5 billion to $3.23 trillion in January, after a drop by $107.9 billion in December. It was the lowest level since 2012.
USD/JPY: 116.00 (USD 210m) 117.00 (250m) 117.75 (200m)
EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 640m) 1.1100 (608m) 1.1200 (475m)
GBP/USD: 1.4500 (GBP 344m) 1.4600 (287m, 1.4700 (518m)
AUD/USD: 0.7000 AUD (701m) 0.7025 (357m) 0.7050 (333m) 0.7065 (728m) 0.7175 (2.2bln)
AUD/JPY: 82.00 (AUD 200m) 83.25 (252m)
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released housing starts data on Friday. Housing starts in Canada dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 165,861 units in January from 172,533 units in December. December's figure was revised down from 172,965 units.
The data had originally been scheduled to be released on February 08.
"Housing starts trended down across the country with the exception of Ontario. The overall decline is mostly attributable to a slowdown in the Prairies where the housing starts trend was at a 4-year low in January," the CMHC's Chief Economist Bob Dugan said.
The Fed released its consumer credits figures on Friday. Consumer credit in the U.S. rose by $21.27 billion in December, exceeding expectations for a $16.0 billion increase, after a $14.02 billion gain November. November's figure was revised up from a $13.95 billion rise.
The increase was mainly driven by gains in non-revolving credit. Revolving credit climbed by $5.8 billion in October, while non-revolving credit jumped by $15.4 billion.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January -0.1% 1.0%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY January 0.0% 0.1%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 48.7 46.6
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 48.2 49.5
The euro little changed ahead of major economic data scheduled for this week. Euro zone GDP report will be published on Friday. The GDP is expected to have grown by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2015 after growth of 0.3% in the third quarter. Economists believe that the euro zone economy grew steadily despite global economic uncertainties. Growth was driven by German and Italian economies.
The yen declined against the U.S. dollar after gaining 3.6% last week (the fastest growth since July 2009). Current account data weighed on the currency. Data showed that Japan's current account came in at ¥960.7 billion vs ¥987.0 billion expected and ¥1,143.5 billion recorded previously.
The Australian dollar climbed at the beginning of the session, but remained under pressure amid a stronger U.S. dollar. ANZ released its job advertisements data today. The corresponding index rose by 1.0% in January. The index rose by 10.8% on a y/y basis. A high reading of the index is positive for the Australian economy. Analysts note strong employment growth in Australia in 2015.
EUR/USD: the pair fluctuated within $1.1125-50 in Asian trade
USD/JPY: the pair rose to Y117.35
GBP/USD: the pair traded within $1.4480-15
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) December -0.3% 0.4%
09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence February 9.6 7.2
13:15 Canada Housing Starts January 173
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December -19.6% 5%
15:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index January 2.9
17:05 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery climbed to $31.14 (+0.81%), while Brent crude rose to $34.41 (+1.03%) in thin trade on Monday, when most Asian markets were closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Market participants are waiting for U.S. crude oil inventories data and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony on Wednesday.
Oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela met on Sunday; however the meeting did not result in any agreement. Nevertheless Venezuela's Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino called the meeting "productive".
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1295 (4103)
$1.1267 (3864)
$1.1208 (5268)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1135
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1060 (1005)
$1.1010 (3633)
$1.0946 (1754)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 4 is 58576 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5268);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 4 is 79790 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (7455);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.36 versus 1.75 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 5
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.4805 (962)
$1.4707 (1027)
$1.4610 (845)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.4509
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.4389 (499)
$1.4293 (1667)
$1.4195 (1298)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 4 is 23054 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4300 (1436);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 4 is 19693 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4350 (1843);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.85 versus 0.94 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 5
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Gold is currently at $1,165.60 (+0.68%). The precious metal gave up some of its recent gains as a strong jobs report suggested that the Federal Reserve could still raise rates in March. Nevertheless weak stocks and dovish trend among central banks of other countries continue supporting gold.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund, rose by 0.70% to 698.46 tonnes on Friday.
U.S. stock indices fell on Friday with technology stocks leading declines.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 211.82 points, or 1.3%, to 16,204.83 (-1.6% over the week). The S&P 500 lost 35.40 points, or 1.9%, to 1,880.05 (-3.1% over the week). The Nasdaq Composite dropped 146.41 points, or 3.3%, to 4,363.14 (-5.4% over the week).
The U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday that the country's economy created 151,000 jobs in January, while economists had expected 190,000 new jobs. Nevertheless the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% from 5%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% m/m and 2.5% y/y. On the whole the report was strong despite weaker jobs creation. It reminded market participants that a rate hike in March was still possible. Fed officials will also study February report before they hold a meeting in March.
This morning in Asia the Nikkei climbed 0.84%, or 141.68, to 16,961.27. Markets in China and Hong Kong are closed due to Lunar New Year.
Japanese stocks declined at the beginning of the session amid a stronger yen. Last week Japanese currency gained 3.6% marking the fastest weekly growth since July 2009. However later stocks advanced as the yen declined slightly after data showed that Japan's current account came in at ¥960.7 billion in December vs ¥987.0 billion expected and ¥1,143.5 billion recorded previously.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Oil 31.00 +0.36%
Gold 1,174.10 +1.42%
(index / closing price / change items /% change)
Nikkei 225 16,819.59 -225.40 -1.32 %
Hang Seng 19,288.17 +105.08 +0.55 %
Shanghai Composite 2,763.95 -17.07 -0.61 %
FTSE 100 5,848.06 -50.70 -0.86 %
CAC 40 4,200.67 -27.86 -0.66 %
Xetra DAX 9,286.23 -107.13 -1.14 %
S&P 500 1,880.05 -35.40 -1.85 %
NASDAQ Composite 4,363.14 -146.42 -3.25 %
Dow Jones 16,204.97 -211.61 -1.29 %
(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1152 -0,48%
GBP/USD $1,4499 -0,62%
USD/CHF Chf0,992 -0,12%
USD/JPY Y116,97 +0,17%
EUR/JPY Y130,44 -0,33%
GBP/JPY Y169,58 -0,45%
AUD/USD $0,7071 -1,81%
NZD/USD $0,6632 -1,36%
USD/CAD C$1,3909 +1,13%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January -0.1%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY January 0.0%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current January 48.7
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook January 48.2
07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) December -0.3% 0.4%
09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence February 9.6 7.2
13:15 Canada Housing Starts January 173
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December -19.6% 5%
15:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index January 2.9
17:05 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks