Major US stock indexes fell slightly as investors once again focused attention on the fact that the Fed will raise interest rates.

Investors were also cautious behavior prior to the annual meeting of central bankers from around the world next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is likely to confirm the expectations of rate increases slowly.

Recall Protocol July meeting to determine the Fed's monetary policy, released Wednesday, showed that those responsible for the policies of the central bank officials still disagree on the need to raise rates this year, reducing expectations of an increase in September. Nevertheless, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, John Williams yesterday expressed support for higher interest rates in the US in the coming months, noting that if you wait too long, it can be expensive economy.

Among the corporate nature should note the publication of financial reports of the company Deere (DE) reports that data showed that the company's profit for the third quarter of fiscal year 2016 was $ 1.55 per share, which was at $ 0.61 above the average forecast of analysts.

Most DOW components of the index closed in negative territory (20 of 30). Most remaining shares rose NIKE, Inc. (NKE, + 2.97%). Outsider is shares Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT, -2.14%).

All business sectors S & P index showed a decline. Conglomerates sectors fell most (-1.8%).

Oil futures fell moderately today, from the 8-week high. A stronger dollar also weighed on prices - today it has grown by 0.5 percent against a basket of currencies.

"We argue that the improved fundamentals are not the key reason for the recent price rebound", - Morgan Stanley said in a note -. The demand for crude oil is anemic, gasoline demand has slowed down around the world, and China's crude oil imports is likely to slow in the second half of this year. "

This week's data on petroleum inventories in the United States, as well as speculation that the leading oil-producing countries can take steps to stabilize prices, have supported the prices. Recall that the meeting of OPEC member states will be held at the end of September 2016, and a number of countries have already expressed interest in the resumption of negotiations on the limitation of production. Former chairman of OPEC Chakib Khelil suggested that the world's largest oil exporters may still agree to freeze production as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Russia extract the highest possible volume of oil or close to it.

However, analysts note that the current price rally may lead to the preservation of oversupply as manufacturers can increase production volume. Later today, the focus will be the publication of the Baker Hughes data on the number of US rigs. The previous report showed that the number of operating drilling rigs is growing.

The cost of the October futures for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 48.80 dollars per barrel.

October futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell to 50.47 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Polish equity market closed lower on Friday. The broad measure, the WIG index, recorded a 0.9% drop. Except for information technology (+1.21%) and oil and gas (+0.82%), every sector in the WIG Index declined, with telecommunication services (-1.64%) lagging behind.

The large-cap stocks fell by 1.14%, as measured by the WIG30 Index. In the index basket, FMCG-wholesaler EUROCASH (WSE: EUR) demonstrated the sharpest decline, tumbling by 9.92% on lower-than-expected Q2 earnings. The company posted Q2 FY16 net profit of PLN 52.5 mln versus analysts' consensus estimate of PLN 61 mln. The other notable losers were thermal coal miner BOGDANKA (WSE: LWB), bank MILLENNIUM (WSE: MIL), chemical producer GRUPA AZOTY (WSE: ATT) and footwear retailer CCC (WSE: CCC), which plunged by 2.8%-2.93%. On the other side of the ledger, coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW) led the gainer, rebounding by 5.45% after yesterday's drop. It was followed by railway freight transport operator PKP CARGO (WSE: PKP), oil and gas producer PGNIG (WSE: PGN) and videogame developer CD PROJEKT (WSE: CDR), adding 1.09%-2.52%.

Gold price dropped as "hawkish" comments from Fed officials have increased the possibility of a rate hike this year. Pressure also had a widespread strengthening of the American currency.

Yesterday the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Williams joined the group of officials who support a rate hike in the coming months. Meanwhile, the president of the New York Fed Dudley has twice indicated this week the possibility of a rate hike. According to the futures market, the probability of a Fed hike in September is 18% and in December 43.1% versus 39.5% yesterday.

The US currency rose 0.5 percent against a basket of major currencies. Recall, a stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Analysts predict that gold will remain in the range of $ 1320- $ 1370.

The gold reserves in the largest ETF SPDR Gold Trust fell on Thursday 1.3 tonnes, continuing the trend , and reaching a level of 956.50 tons. "The main factors influencing the price of gold, as before, is a strengthening of the US dollar and a further outflow of investors from ETFs that specialize in physical gold," - said Commerzbank.

The cost of the October futures on the COMEX fell to $ 1345.70 per ounce.

Major U.S. stock-indexws little changed on Friday, with investors again focusing on when the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next and with the corporate earnings season winding down. Investors were also cagey ahead of next week's annual meeting of central bankers from around the world in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which Fed Chair Janet Yellen is likely to cement expectations for a slow pace of rate increases.

Most of Dow stocks in negative area (20 of 30). Top gainer - NIKE, Inc. (NKE, +2.87%). Top loser - Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -1.01%).

All of S&P sectors in negative area. Top loser - Conglomerates (-2.1%).

At the moment:

Dow 18552.00 -13.00 -0.07%

S&P 500 2180.00 -3.50 -0.16%

Nasdaq 100 4814.00 +5.50 +0.11%

Oil 48.68 -0.21 -0.43%

Gold 1349.40 -7.80 -0.57%

U.S. 10yr 1.59 +0.05

Moody's in the global macro-economic forecast for 2016 - 2017: "We expect that the Russian economy in the second half of this year will begin to exit from the recession, due to lower oil and gas prices and, consequently, a fall in GDP and a sharp devaluation of the ruble"

According to analysts, import substitution policy had a positive impact on improving the performance of a number of manufacturing industries (such as agriculture and the chemical industry), which, in turn, has led to growth of industrial production by 1.7% year on year. "The outlook revision reflects the growth of Russia and these events are testament to the fact that the restructuring of the Russian economy is faster than we expected before"..

The agency has improved the outlook for the Russian economy to -0.5% in 2016 and +2% in 2017. Earlier, Moody's analysts expect the reduction of Russia's GDP by an average of 1.5% in 2016 and moderate growth in 2017.

EUR/USD 1.1350 (EUR 605m)

USD/JPY 101.00 (USD 1.46bln) 103.00 (USD 877m) 104.00 (1.08bln)

AUD/USD 0.7650 (AUD 640m)

USD/CAD 1.2990-1.3000 (USD 756m)

AUD/NZD 1.0700 (AUD 310m) 1.0710-12 (AUD (485m)

We did not spend a long time on these, slightly higher levels, which we mentioned in the previous comment. After 14 o'clock (Warsaw time) contracts for the S&P500 went back to session lows area and in response to such behavior both of the DAX as well as our WIG20 went down to the vicinity of its minimum levels.

In anticipation of the start of Wall Street once again we went down in the area of the previous lows of the session, which confirms that even in the afternoon cards on our parquet are distributed by the supply side. It seems that the bears are standing in the blocks and just waiting for a good opportunity to start the attack on the level of 1,800 points.

Such a situation occurred after the start of trading in the US. Among blue chips grow only two companies - PGNiG 1.8 percent and PKN Orlen 0.2 percent.

The WIG20 index 15 minutes after the start of overseas trading stood at the level of 1,798 points (-1,22%).

Rumors that the UK prime minister May said to want to trigger Art. 50 before French, German votes.

If this is the case it would be a confirmation of the withdrawal calendar and the markets could like this - sell the rumors, buy the facts.

U.S. stock-index futures slipped amid shifting speculation over the next Federal Reserve rate increase and volatile oil prices.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 16,545.82 +59.81 +0.36%

Hang Seng 22,937.22 -85.94 -0.37%

Shanghai 3,108.72 +4.61 +0.15%

FTSE 6,861.55 -7.41 -0.11%

CAC 4,398.91 -38.15 -0.86%

DAX 10,561.47 -41.56 -0.39%

Crude $48.06 (-0.33%)

Gold $1343.40 (-1.02%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Other:

Wal-Mart (WMT) target raised to $76 from $73 at RBC Capital Mkts; Underperform
Wal-Mart (WMT) target raised to $78 from $71 at Telsey Advisory Group

Retail sales edged down 0.1% to $44.1 billion in June. Weaker sales at food and beverage stores and general merchandise stores offset higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Sales were down in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 54% of retail trade.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms declined 0.3% in June.

Weaker sales at food and beverage stores and general merchandise stores

Food and beverage stores (-1.5%) recorded the largest decrease in dollar terms among subsectors in June. After advancing 6.4% in May, sales at beer, wine and liquor stores were down 4.7%, the largest monthly drop since June 2013. Receipts at supermarkets and other grocery stores fell 0.9% in June. Following three months of declines, sales at specialty food stores posted a 1.1% gain. Sales at convenience stores were up 0.3%.

General merchandise stores recorded a 1.5% sales decrease in June, down for the second month in a row.

Sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.9%) fell for the third time in four months.

Clothing and clothing accessories stores posted a 1.7% sales decline in June. Sales at clothing stores (-1.7%) and shoe stores (-3.6%) were down, following gains in May. Jewellery, luggage and leather goods stores recorded a 1.1% sales increase.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% in the 12 months to July, after increasing 1.5% in June.

Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.9% year over year in July, matching the gain in June.

Prices rose in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to July, with the shelter and food indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year gain in consumer prices. The transportation index, which includes gasoline, and the clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis in July.

The transportation index was down 0.2% in the 12 months to July, after rising 1.1% in June. Gasoline prices declined more year over year in July (-14.0%) than in June (-8.5%); on a monthly basis, gasoline prices fell 5.6% in July. On a year-over-year basis, the purchase of passenger vehicles index (+5.4%) and the city bus and subway transportation index (+2.1%) rose less in July than in June.

The clothing and footwear index decreased 0.4% year over year in July, after posting a 1.2% gain in June. This turnaround was partly attributable to a decline in the women's clothing index in the 12 months to July (-0.4%), following a year-over-year increase in June (+2.2%). Compared with the same month a year earlier, shoppers also paid less for children's clothing and men's clothing in July.

Deere reported Q3FY16 earnings of $1.55 per share (versus $1.53 in Q3FY15), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.94.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $5.861 bln (-14.3% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $6.027 bln.

Deere also increased its FY16 net income forecast to $1.35 bln from $1.2 bln, but lowered FY16 sales projection to down 10% from down 9%.

DE rose to $79.90 (+3.85%) in pre-market trading.

EUR/USD

Offers : 1.1335 1.1350 1.1380-85 1.1400 1.1425-30 1.1450

Bids : 1.1300 1.1280 1.12501.1230 1.1200 1.1185 1.1150

GBP/USD

Offers : 1.3160 1.3180-85 1.3200 1,3230 1.3250 1.3270 1.3300

Bids : 1.3110 1.3100 1.3080-85 1.3050 1.3030 1.3000 1.2980 1.2950

EUR/GBP

Offers : 0.8650 0.8685 0.8700 0.8725-30 0.8750

Bids : 0.8600 0.8585 0.8570 0.8550 0.8530 0.8500

EUR/JPY

Offers : 113.80 114.00 114.30 114.50 114.75 115.00

Bids : 113.50 113.25-30 113.00 112.75-80 112.50 112.30 112.00-10

USD/JPY

Offers : 100.30 100.50 101.00 101.25-30 101.50

Bids : 100.00 99.85 99.65 99.50 99.30 99.00 98.80 98.50

AUD/USD

Offers : 0.7650 0.7680 0.7700 0.7725-30 0.7750-55 0.7785 0.7800

Bids : 0.7620-25 0.7600 0.7585 0.7565 0.7550 0.7500

The morning phase of the session on the WIG20 diagram is a clear correlation with the graph of the German DAX. In the first hours of trading our market declined "head to head" with the German index. As a result, the WIG20 lost about 1 percent and stabilized in the area of the psychological barrier of 1,800 points. Successive bars of trade brought a rebound in Euroland and the DAX recovered 2/3 of today's losses. On Warsaw market such effect is far much smaller, which does not mean that it may not be bigger.

Noon rarely results in lasting pulses, so at least, for a serious move we will wait until the time at which its presence in the markets will mark investors from the USA.

In the middle of today's session the WIG20 reached the level of 1,808 points (-0,68%).

European stocks dropped in the course of trading today and for the week, while the Stoxx 600 may show the biggest weekly decline since July, despite a steady rebound in oil prices.

The composite index of Europe's largest enterprises Stoxx 600 fell by 0.6% - to 340.96 points. Since the beginning of the week lost almost 7%.

The capitalization of mining companies BHP Billiton and Glencore Plc declined 1.1% and 1%, respectively, following the decline in metal prices.

BMW shares fell 1.8% after the German automaker was forced to recall 956 sedans models of the M5, M6 coupes, convertibles and sedans M6 M6 Gran Coupe 2015 because of problems with the quality of the welding.

Vonovia shares climbed 0.9% after the company raised annual profit forecast for the second time.

The price of securities of the transport and oil companies A.P. Moeller-Maersk A / S has increased by 0.9%. Denmark's largest company said it is still considering different options for further strategic development. Earlier media reported that the company can be divided into two parts, one of which will depart transport assets, the other - in the sphere of oil production assets.

Norwegian telecommunications company Telenor has added 1% of market value after its head Segway Brekke stated that the company intends to sell its stake in VimpelCom Ltd.

Shares of betting company William Hill jumped 5.3% on news that its operating profit in the current year will be closer to the upper limit of its forecast.

Shares of Vopak, the world's largest independent tank terminal operator for the storage of petroleum products decreased by 3.5% after the company reported results for the first half.

Nibe Shares added 3.5% as earningssurpassed the forecasts.

At the moment:

FTSE 6853.47 -15.49 -0.23%

DAX 10540.18 -62.85 -0.59%

CAC 4404.75 -32.31 -0.73%

"There will be a strong focus on Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole on 26 August and the next US non-farm payrolls release set for 2 September. We expect markets to reprice Fed rate hike expectations and the USD to rally.

...The US Federal Reserve has begun to lay the groundwork for a September rate hike, in our view. The resulting pickup in US front-end rates should mean that the USD has bottomed out in the short term, paving the way for a broad recovery in the coming weeks. Dependent on the extent to which an adjustment of expectations of future Fed policy also challenges the risk environment, we would expect USD gains to be most pronounced versus the commodity-exporting currencies in the G10. However, with the Fed unlikely to embark on a regular series of hikes, we do not expect a large adjustment in the US curve and doubt the USD will gather much momentum.

In addition to the Fed and the US there are several other factors that will play a key role in determining the foreign exchange market trend.

The equity market's response will be critical, especially as regards the AUD and NZD. Our STEER model indicates that global equities are the principal driver of these currencies Of the five input factors that constitute our STEER model (2 year-swap rates, relative yield curve slope, commodity prices, relative equities and global equities), the co-efficient for global equities is, by some margin, the highest. Global equities have supplanted the traditional drivers of relative yields and commodity prices. As represented by the US S&P 500 Index, they have recently posted record highs. If such bullish momentum is threatened by increasing US rate-hike expectations, the AUD and NZD would be very vulnerable to a reversal.

The AUD is particularly at risk as our FX Positioning Analysis signals that it is the second-most-owned currency among the G10 group. We forecast 0.68 on AUDUSD by year end.

The GBP also appears extremely vulnerable. This week's relief rally, following robust unemployment data and the surprise rebound in July retail sales, is unlikely to prevent a sharp GDP output decline to zero in the UK that our economists forecast for the next three quarters. The retail sales jump is likely to prove a temporary, weather-related phenomenon. The greatest risk comes from the dramatic decline in the PMI surveys for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys. Both have fallen to multi-year lows and suggest the BoE will need to ease policy further. UK output data, especially the September PMI surveys, will be pivotal for the GBP".

Copyright © 2016 BNP Paribas™, eFXnews™

This morning, New York crude oil futures for WTI fell by -0.04% to $ 48.20 and Brent oil futures were down -0.47% to $ 50.65 per barrel. Thus, the black gold has slightly decreased in value, correcting the recent rise amid expectations of the largest manufacturers to restore the balance of supply and demand. At the OPEC president saidi last week that the cartel plans to hold an informal meeting on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in September. Later, Saudi Arabia and Russia have also expressed their willingness to participate in a coordinated action to support the market. At the same time, some traders are skeptical of the success of this meeting, in particular, the possibility of freezing the cartel's production.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £3.0 billion to £23.7 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April to July 2016), compared with the same period in 2015.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) was in surplus by £1.0 billion in July 2016; a decrease in surplus of £0.2 billion compared with July 2015.

Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) at the end of July 2016 was £1,604.2 billion, equivalent to 82.9% of gross domestic product (GDP); an increase of £35.3 billion compared with July 2015.

This is the second successive month of debt falling on the year as a percentage of GDP and indicates that GDP is currently increasing (year-on-year) faster than net debt excluding public sector banks. However, care should be taken when inferring trends from only two months' data, especially given the provisional nature of centred GDP estimates for the latest month.

Central government net cash requirement decreased by £5.1 billion to £22.2 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April to July 2016), compared with the same period in 2015.

The government, having burned through much of its foreign currency reserves, faces a crushing debt burden and is having trouble meeting its civil service payroll. On Thursday, the central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate by a remarkable 4.5 percentage points to 15 percent to prop up the tugrik, the world's worst performing currency in August.

Mongolia, a mineral-rich and landlocked $12 billion economy bordering Russia and China, is staring at a full-blown balance of payments crisis. It's caused barely a ripple in global financial markets, but the nation's economic meltdown offers instructive lessons to far bigger resource-reliant economies like Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

This is an economy that gives new meaning to what economists call the resource curse. An overabundance of natural resources can result in lopsided economic growth, government waste and boom-bust cycles that can leave a country's finances in tatters.

*source: bloomberg.com

EUR/USD 1.1350 (EUR 605m)

USD/JPY 101.00 (USD 1.46bln) 103.00 (USD 877m) 104.00 (1.08bln)

AUD/USD 0.7650 (AUD 640m)

USD/CAD 1.2990-1.3000 (USD 756m)

AUD/NZD 1.0700 (AUD 310m) 1.0710-12 (AUD (485m)

The US dollar was moderately higher against major currencies after it reached new lows yesterday, nevertheless, under pressure after the FOMC minutes. The minutes reported that the leaders of the Central Bank tried to leave the door open for a rate hike. They also tried to come to a unified assessment of prospects for the economy. In general, reports signaled that rates could be raised as early as September, but the Central Bank will not act as long as the majority of its leaders will not come to a consensus regarding the outlook for the economy, employment and inflation. According to the futures market, the probability of a Fed rate hike is 18% in September and at the December meeting is estimated at 42.8% versus 41.7%.

Also yesterday yesterday the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams said the central bank should start raising interest sooner rather than later. With this statement, Williams joined the growing number of Fed leaders who believe that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs, as well as the fear of exceeding the inflation target set by the Fed.

"In the context of a strong domestic economy with good momentum, it makes sense to start a gradual increase in interest rates, preferably - sooner rather than later," - said Williams.

Next week, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at the annual conference of the central bank in Jackson Hole. Investors will be closely watching for hints of further Fed action with respect to monetary policy.

The yen has weakened slightly since the beginning of the session, but the USD / JPY pair has no clear direction because of the lack of new signals.

Activity index for large enterprises of all industries of Japan increased by 1.0% in June, after falling 1.0% in May. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.9%. This indicator estimates the capital costs of all sectors except the Japanese financial industry and is considered a leading growth performance.

The New Zealand Dollar was down against the US dollar: "The key factor determining the dynamics of the New Zealand dollar, are the prospects for US monetary policy, while the RBNZ policy has no significant impact on the prospects for the New Zealand currency" - say BNZ.

WIG20 index opened at 1824.95 points (+0.22%)

WIG 48055.68 0.18%

WIG30 2075.03 0.20%

mWIG40 3832.93 0.23%

*/ - change to previous close

The WIG20 futures took off with a predominance of up to 9 points compared to yesterday's close. Such a significant optimism in the trade before 9:00 am may not be favorable for the bulls, but results, among others, from improved sentiment after yesterday's growth in the US, which moves as long as the specter of a global correction in the markets. Morale on major European stock exchanges are also optimistic, as evidenced by the increase in contracts for the major indexes.

Start of the cash market, as in the case of contracts was quite nice. Bulls manage to not only defend yesterday pulled up the final fixing, but even earn more points. Prevails, of course, the green color, but the distinctions growth include only Tauron (WSE: TPE), which tried to make up for yesterday's losses. On the red side of the market at the forefront we may see Eurocash (WSE: EUR), which lost 2.6 percent. after the release of weaker-than-expected results for the second quarter.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1447 (3604)

$1.1426 (4661)

$1.1397 (4631)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1338

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1294 (1005)

$1.1241 (2401)

$1.1170 (2727)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 9 is 53031 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1250 (4980);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 9 is 57909 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5831);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 18

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3404 (2190)

$1.3306 (3124)

$1.3210 (1927)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3145

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3090 (1047)

$1.2994 (2185)

$1.2896 (2027)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 9 is 32360 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (3124);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 9 is 26128 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2478);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.81 versus 0.81 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Thursday's session on Wall Street ended with modest increases in the major indexes. In the case of the broad S&P500 growth was 0.22 percent. The biggest impact on the outcome of the session was the behavior of oil prices, which helped for the raw material sector. The low level of turnover showed that the US trade had holiday character. The situation is similar in the Asian markets where local indices record cosmetic changes. It does not promise any serious emotions in early trading in Europe. Emotions also hard to find in the macro calendar, which lacks of important reports today.

From the point of view of the Warsaw Stock Exchange is worth to note yesterday's growth (+ 0.9%) of emerging markets cart. This is a continuation of the previous session and the positive reaction of investors to the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Yesterday's defense of ​​1,819-1,800 points area on the WIG20 index indicates that the buyer always count on shallow withdrawal.

"USD/JPY has been trading through the graphical support of 100. Short term indicators have been posting positive divergence however a meaningful recovery has so far remained elusive. Short term, a retest of recent lows at 98.90/98.20, also a projection for the down move can't be ruled out. However this will remain a crucial level.

In case this gives way, USD/JPY will head for a deeper down move with next projections at 97/96.80 initially. 100.60 is an immediate resistance while hourly descending trend at 101.40 will affirm early signs of recovery.

AUD/USD tested the neckline of the inverted H&S at 0.7780. The pattern highlights significance of the stabilization after a steady downtrend until January this year.

A break above 0.7780 will confirm the formation and indicate extension in rebound towards last May highs of 0.8160".

Copyright © 2016 Societe Generale, eFXnews™

The activity index for large enterprises of all industries increased by 1.0% in June, after falling -1.0% in May. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.9%. This estimates the capital costs of all sectors except the Japanese financial industry and is considered a leading growth performance.

Visitor arrivals numbered 237,900 in July 2016, setting a new July record, Statistics New Zealand said today. Visitor arrivals were up 14 percent from July 2015, due mainly to a 21 percent increase in holiday arrivals.

"More holidaymakers from Australia, China, and the United States boosted the holiday arrival numbers this month," population statistics manager Jo-Anne Skinner said. "This is the first time that holiday visitor arrivals from Australia have exceeded 50,000 in a July month."

In the July 2016 year, visitor arrivals hit a record 3.34 million, up 11 percent from the July 2015 year.

In July 2016 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 2.0% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In June 2016 the annual rate of change all over had been -2.2%.

Compared with the preceding month June 2016 the overall index rose by 0.2% in July 2016 (+0.4% in June and in May).

In July 2016 energy prices decreased by 6.2% compared with July 2015, prices of intermediate goods by 1.8%. In contrast prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.4%, prices of capital goods by 0.5% and prices of durable consumer goods by 1.2%.

The overall index disregarding energy decreased by 0.5% compared with July 2015 and rose slightly by 0.2% compared with June 2016.

European's main stock benchmark closed with gains for the first time in five sessions on Thursday, with resource companies helping to lead the charge higher on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve won't raise rates this year.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.72% gained 0.7% to end at 342.91, recovering almost entirely from a 0.8% drop on Wednesday.

Wednesday's weakness came as investors feared the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July would signal a rate increase could happen as soon as September. However, the meeting minutes, released after the European market closed on Wednesday, showed the central-bank officials remain split over whether a rate increase is needed soon.

U.K. stocks rose on Thursday after surprisingly strong retail sales for July dispelled fears Britain is sliding into a recession because of the Brexit vote.

The FTSE 100 index UKX, +0.14% gained 0.1% to close at 6,868.96, partly recovering from a 0.5% loss on Wednesday.

Retail sales were the main focus on the data front on Thursday, capping off a week of the first economic data to show the real effect on the U.K. economy from the referendum on European Union membership.

The Office for National Statistics said sales rose 1.4%, well above a 0.2% estimated rise in a FactSet poll of analysts.

U.S. stocks on Thursday logged a modest return in a trading session marked by relatively muted moves for the main benchmarks as investors pored over a batch of upbeat economic data and digested signs that the Federal Reserve remains divided about the timing of the next interest-rate hike.

A rise in oil prices, which pushed West Texas Intermediate crude trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange - the U.S. benchmark - into bull-market territory, helped nudge energy stocks up. A bull market is defined as a 20% rise from a recent low.

Asian stocks retreated on Friday and the dollar edged up from a near eight-week low after some Federal Reserve officials reiterated the case for raising interest rates in coming months.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 erased earlier gains to trade 0.1 percent lower, set for a weekly loss of 2.6 percent.

China's CSI 300 index .CSI300 and the Shanghai Composite .SSEC slid 0.2 percent, but were still up 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent for the week, respectively.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 48.34 +0.25%

Gold 1,357.50 +0.02%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 16,486.01 -259.63 -1.55%

Shanghai Composite 3,104.32 -5.23 -0.17%

S&P/ASX 200 5,507.82 0.00 0.00%

FTSE 100 6,868.96 +9.81 +0.14%

CAC 40 4,437.06 +19.38 +0.44%

Xetra DAX 10,603.03 +65.36 +0.62%

S&P 500 2,187.02 +4.80 +0.22%

Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,597.70 +23.76 +0.13%

S&P/TSX Composite 14,695.68 -1.92 -0.01%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1352 +0,57%

GBP/USD $1,3160 +0,91%

USD/CHF Chf0,9547 -0,78%

USD/JPY Y99,92 -0,28%

EUR/JPY Y113,42 +0,25%

GBP/JPY Y131,48 +0,62%

AUD/USD $0,7684 +0,35%

NZD/USD $0,7286 +0,45%

USD/CAD C$1,2772 -0,60%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m June -1% 0.9%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) July 0.4% 0.1%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) July -2.2% -2.1%

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln July -7.31 1.2

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m June 0.2% 0.5%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY June 3.6%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m June 0.9% 0.3%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m July 0.2% -0.1%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y July 1.5% 1.3%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y July 2.1% 2.1%