Oil prices fell moderately, retreating from the highest point of the year. Pressure on the quotes provide evidence of increasing oil production in the Middle East.
Bloomberg reported that in April, oil production by OPEC countries as compared to March increased by 484 thousand. Barrels and reached 33.217 million barrels a day, which is the highest since 1989. Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Reuters, shows that oil production in April rose to 32.64 million barrels a day to 32.47 million barrels in March, slightly lower than in January, when the highest rate of production was recorded (32 65 million barrels) in 1997. Both agencies indicate growth occurred at the expense of Iran, which is rapidly increasing its production volumes after the lifting of sanctions. According to Bloomberg, Iran already produces 3.5 million barrels, which is the largest level since December 2011, but according to Reuters, this figure reached 3.4 million barrels.
Analysts say that rising volumes from the OPEC production outweigh the reduction in raw material extraction level in the US, as well as the depreciation of the US dollar. Noting the past three months, oil prices have risen by 70 per cent.
Investors also continue to analyze the data Friday from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of drilling rigs in the US fell last week by 11 to 332, its lowest level in six years. At the same time it has been used 679 rigs last year. This week the focus will be data on oil reserves in the United States - on Tuesday they will release the American Petroleum Institute, and on Wednesday, official data release Ministry of Energy.
In the course of trading is also affected by the latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed that for the week April 26th volume of net speculative long position in futures for WTI peaked with last May, and the volume of gross shorts down to ten months lows. "Market participants are focused not on the current excess supply, and on the balancing market predictions in the 2nd half of the year", - the expert said Societe Generale Mike Whitner.
WTI for delivery in June fell to $45.36 a barrel. Brent for June fell to $46.37 a barrel.
Gold prices rose to a new 15-month high, supported by the weakening of the US currency, but later again fell below $ 1,300 an ounce, as the dollar began to regain losses. It should be emphasized, many Asian markets and the UK market closed due to national holidays, so trading volumes are reduced.
The dollar began to actively become cheaper after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left the rate unchanged and reiterated that future rate increases depend on the data. The delay in raising interest rates, tends to encourage demand for gold, as the metal is reduced relative cost containment, guaranteeing investors a higher profit. Analysts say that the main factor that will determine the prospects for gold price will remain the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 17% in June.
"The longer the Fed delays raising interest rates, the better for the gold - said HSBC analysts -. Precious metals market will now focus on the prospects for increasing rates at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve in June, and the likelihood that the Central Bank did raise rates later this year, can help limit the growth of prices for bullion. " Gold rose in price by 17 percent since the beginning of the year on expectations that the Fed will not raise rates aggressively this year.
In the course of trading was also influenced by the US statistics. Final data presented Markit Economics, showed: the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI index fell in April to 50.8 points from 51.5 points in March. The latter value has coincided with the preliminary estimates and forecasts. However, the index dropped below the average for the 1st quarter of 2016 (51.7), and pointed to the weakest improvement in the general conditions for a little more than 6.5 years.
Meanwhile, a report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), showed that ISM manufacturing index fell to 50.8 in April, compared with 51.8 in March. It was expected that this figure will decline only to 51.5 points. 15 of 18 industries reported an increase in new orders compared with 13 branches in March. Also, 15 of 18 industries reported an increase in production in comparison with 12 branches in March.
Some analysts believe that the recent rise in price of gold is partly due to technical factors, as traders under the influence of the current dynamics of actively open position and reinforce the trend. Recall, on the gold price last week increased by 5%.
In addition, data Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long position in gold in the week ended last Tuesday.
The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today at $ 1296.0 per ounce.
The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 11 rigs to 332 last week. It was the lowest level since 2009.
The number of gas rigs declined by 1 to 87.
Combined oil and gas rigs decreased by 12 to 420.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may reached the bottom, adding that it would depend on the global economy.
"In a normal economic environment, we will see the price direction is rather upwards than downwards," he said.
Birol noted that the oil market would rebalance in the second half of the year or next year.
The Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in April from 50.2 in March, according to the Chinese government. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 50.4.
A reading above the 50 mark indicates expansion, a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The decrease was driven by falls in output, new orders and employment. The production sub-index declined to 52.2 in April from 52.3 in March, the new orders sub-index was down to 51 from 51.4, and the new exports sub-index fell to 50.1 from 50.2, while the employment sub-index decreased to 47.8 from 48.1.
The services PMI decreased to 53.5 in April from 53.8 in March.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Oil 45.70 -0.48%
Gold 1,293.30 +0.22%