The US dollar depreciated significantly against the euro, reaching a minimum of 26 August 2015, which was caused by technical factors and the publication of weak US statistics. Final data presented at Markit, showed: the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March. The value coincided with the preliminary estimate and forecasts. However, the index dropped below the average for the 1st quarter of 2016 (51.7), and pointed to the weakest improvement in the general conditions for a little more than 6.5 years. Production remained almost unchanged in April, but the pace of expansion was the weakest since October 2009. The Markit said that weak customer demand, uncertainty about the economic outlook and lower capital costs for an energetic sector put pressure on industrial production in April. Meanwhile, manufacturers are once again recorded a slight increase in orders, but the growth rate was the weakest since December 2015. The volume of new orders from abroad fell at the fastest pace in 1.5 years, while the number of unfilled orders decreased for the third time in a row, recording the highest growth since September 2009. Against this background, the pace of job creation turned out to be the weakest in nearly three years.
Meanwhile, a report published by the Institute for Supply Management, showed that the manufacturing index fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. It was expected that the rate will drop to 51.5. Activity in the manufacturing sector fell from the end of 2014 because of the collapse in oil prices and lower export demand, which was the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation abroad and the strengthening of the dollar.
On the trading dynamics also affect the application of the ECB Draghi. He noted that in conditions of extremely low inflation is no alternative to a soft monetary policy. Draghi also said that in the medium term depositors of banks benefit from low interest rates. "To date, our policy can stimulate the eurozone economy in the conditions of falling output and extremely low inflation due to the fact that interest rates remain below their long-term levels," - he said.
The British pound strengthened against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since 5 January. Experts point out that the current increase of the pair was due to a widespread weakening of the US currency. The dollar began to actively become cheaper after last Wednesday, the Fed left rates at the same level and did not give a clear signal as to whether to wait for the growth rate in June. This decision was taken by the central bank on a background of mixed signals from the global economy and the slowdown in inflation in the United States. Preservation of low interest rates has a negative impact on the US currency, making it less attractive to investors. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 17% in June.
Later this week, investors will be watching UK data on business activity in the manufacturing sector, the construction sector and the service sector. It is expected that the manufacturing index rose in April to 51.2 from 51.0, the PMI index for the construction sector fell to 54.0 from 54.2, while the PMI index for the services sector fell to 53.6 from 53.7.
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said in an interview with on radio station France Inter on Monday that the central bank's stimulus measures were working, but more time was needed.
"That's working and creating growth, but where we're still waiting for results is on inflation, because it takes time and because energy prices are still low," he said.
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said in opinion piece in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung on Sunday that the central bank was acting to fulfil its price stability mandate.
He noted that inflation would rise only gradually.
Coeure defended the ECB's quantitative easing.
"People are not just savers - they are also employees, taxpayers and borrowers, as such benefiting from the low level of interest rates," he said.
Stock indices traded higher after the release of the mostly positive final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for the Eurozone. Markit Economics released its final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone on Monday. Eurozone's final manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 in April from 51.6 in March, up from the preliminary reading of 51.5.
The rise was driven by a faster growth in employment and as deflationary pressures moderated.
"The survey is signalling an anaemic annual rate of growth of manufacturing production of just less than 1%, which is half the pace seen in the months leading up to the recent slowdown," Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said.
"The survey data therefore so far show no signs of ECB stimulus or the weaker euro helping to revive the manufacturing sector, at least for the euro area as a whole," he added.
Germany's final Markit/BME manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in April from 50.7 in March, down from the preliminary reading of 51.9. The index was mainly driven by rises in new business and employment.
France's final manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.0 in April from 49.6 in March, down the preliminary reading of 48.3. The index was driven by drops in new business, output and output prices. Output prices slid a fastest pace since July 2009.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said on Monday that there was no alternative to the central bank's quantitative easing.
"There is simply no alternative to this today," he said.
Draghi noted that savers would benefit from the central bank's monetary policy in the medium term.
"It might seem at first glance that this policy is tantamount to penalising savers in favour of borrowers. But in the medium-term, expansionary policy is actually very much to the benefit of savers," the ECB president said.
Markets in the U.K. are closed for a public holiday.
Indexes on the close:
Name Price Change Change %
FTSE 100 closed
DAX 10,123.27 +84.30 +0.84 %
CAC 40 4,442.75 +13.79 +0.31 %
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said on Monday that there was no alternative to the central bank's quantitative easing.
"There is simply no alternative to this today," he said.
Draghi noted that savers would benefit from the central bank's monetary policy in the medium term.
"It might seem at first glance that this policy is tantamount to penalising savers in favour of borrowers. But in the medium-term, expansionary policy is actually very much to the benefit of savers," the ECB president said.
Oil prices fell moderately, retreating from the highest point of the year. Pressure on the quotes provide evidence of increasing oil production in the Middle East.
Bloomberg reported that in April, oil production by OPEC countries as compared to March increased by 484 thousand. Barrels and reached 33.217 million barrels a day, which is the highest since 1989. Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Reuters, shows that oil production in April rose to 32.64 million barrels a day to 32.47 million barrels in March, slightly lower than in January, when the highest rate of production was recorded (32 65 million barrels) in 1997. Both agencies indicate growth occurred at the expense of Iran, which is rapidly increasing its production volumes after the lifting of sanctions. According to Bloomberg, Iran already produces 3.5 million barrels, which is the largest level since December 2011, but according to Reuters, this figure reached 3.4 million barrels.
Analysts say that rising volumes from the OPEC production outweigh the reduction in raw material extraction level in the US, as well as the depreciation of the US dollar. Noting the past three months, oil prices have risen by 70 per cent.
Investors also continue to analyze the data Friday from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of drilling rigs in the US fell last week by 11 to 332, its lowest level in six years. At the same time it has been used 679 rigs last year. This week the focus will be data on oil reserves in the United States - on Tuesday they will release the American Petroleum Institute, and on Wednesday, official data release Ministry of Energy.
In the course of trading is also affected by the latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed that for the week April 26th volume of net speculative long position in futures for WTI peaked with last May, and the volume of gross shorts down to ten months lows. "Market participants are focused not on the current excess supply, and on the balancing market predictions in the 2nd half of the year", - the expert said Societe Generale Mike Whitner.
WTI for delivery in June fell to $45.36 a barrel. Brent for June fell to $46.37 a barrel.
Polish equity market closed higher on Monday. The broad market measure, the WIG index, added 016%. Sector performance in the WIG Index was mixed. Construction sector (-0.75%) suffered the biggest loss, while food sector (+1.53%) fared the best.
The large-cap stocks' measure, the WIG30 Index, advanced 0.23%. Coking coal producer JSW (WSE: JSW) kept its position as a growth leader among the large-cap stocks, gaining 5.24%. It was announced that the company would receive about PLN 300-400 mln ($79-105 mln) in state funding to restructure its coal mines. Clothing retailer LPP (WSE: LPP) emerged as the second best-performing stock, adding 3.01% on the back of strong sales report for April. Other major advancers were agricultural producer KERNEL (WSE: KER), oil refiner LOTOS (WSE: LTS) and thermal coal miner BOGDANKA (WSE: LWB), surging by 2.86%, 2.76% and 2.63% respectively. On the other side of the ledger, chemical producer SYNTHOS (WSE: SNS) and copper producer KGHM (WSE: KGH) tumbled the most, down 1.47% and 1.43% respectively.
The Warsaw Stock Exchange will be closed on Tuesday, May 3, due to celebration of Polish Constitution Day (Święto Konstytucji 3 Maja or Święto Narodowe Trzeciego Maja).
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Monday that quantitative easing was appropriate as inflation was low, adding that quantitative easing for a longer period could entail risks and side effects.
He pointed out that global economy needed supply side demand reforms not stimulus measures.
Gold prices rose to a new 15-month high, supported by the weakening of the US currency, but later again fell below $ 1,300 an ounce, as the dollar began to regain losses. It should be emphasized, many Asian markets and the UK market closed due to national holidays, so trading volumes are reduced.
The dollar began to actively become cheaper after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left the rate unchanged and reiterated that future rate increases depend on the data. The delay in raising interest rates, tends to encourage demand for gold, as the metal is reduced relative cost containment, guaranteeing investors a higher profit. Analysts say that the main factor that will determine the prospects for gold price will remain the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 17% in June.
"The longer the Fed delays raising interest rates, the better for the gold - said HSBC analysts -. Precious metals market will now focus on the prospects for increasing rates at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve in June, and the likelihood that the Central Bank did raise rates later this year, can help limit the growth of prices for bullion. " Gold rose in price by 17 percent since the beginning of the year on expectations that the Fed will not raise rates aggressively this year.
In the course of trading was also influenced by the US statistics. Final data presented Markit Economics, showed: the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI index fell in April to 50.8 points from 51.5 points in March. The latter value has coincided with the preliminary estimates and forecasts. However, the index dropped below the average for the 1st quarter of 2016 (51.7), and pointed to the weakest improvement in the general conditions for a little more than 6.5 years.
Meanwhile, a report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), showed that ISM manufacturing index fell to 50.8 in April, compared with 51.8 in March. It was expected that this figure will decline only to 51.5 points. 15 of 18 industries reported an increase in new orders compared with 13 branches in March. Also, 15 of 18 industries reported an increase in production in comparison with 12 branches in March.
Some analysts believe that the recent rise in price of gold is partly due to technical factors, as traders under the influence of the current dynamics of actively open position and reinforce the trend. Recall, on the gold price last week increased by 5%.
In addition, data Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long position in gold in the week ended last Tuesday.
The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today at $ 1296.0 per ounce.
Standard & Poor's (S&P) affirmed the U.K.'s AAA credit rating on Friday. The outlook is negative.
According to S&P analysts, Britons will vote to remain in the European Union (EU).
"Our affirmation of the rating reflects our assumption that, by a small majority, the referendum will deliver a vote to remain in the EU", the agency said.
But S&P added that a possible leave weighed on Britain's creditworthiness.
The Melbourne Institute (MI) released its monthly inflation data for Australia on Monday. MI Inflation gauge for Australia rose 0.1% in April, after a flat reading in March.
On a yearly basis, inflation gauge climbed 1.5% in April, after a 1.7% increase in March.
Prices for fruit and vegetables climbed 3.4% in April, medical and hospital services prices rose 3.5% and automotive fuel prices jumped 3.7%, while prices for holiday travel and accommodation slid 4.3%, prices for insurance and financial services fell 0.4% and household furniture & equipment prices were down 0.2%.
The National Australia Bank (NAB) released its business confidence index for Australia on Monday. The index fell to 5 points in April from 6 points in March.
"Even though business conditions eased this month, they have remained well above average levels for the past year. With consistently good results like these from our survey it is difficult not to have a degree of confidence in the near-term outlook," NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said.
The main business conditions index decreased to 9 points in April from 12 points in March, while employment remained uncaged at 4 points.
The Australian Industry Group (AiG) released its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Australia on the late Sunday evening. The index dropped to 53.4 in April from 58.1 in March. It was the highest level since April 2004.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.
A stronger Australian dollar weighed on the activity in the manufacturing sector.
The European Central Bank (ECB) purchased €17.55 billion of government and agency bonds under its quantitative-easing program last week.
The ECB bought €1.24 billion of covered bonds, and the value of asset-backed securities fell by €132 million.
In April as whole, the central bank purchased €78.5 billion of government and agency bonds, €6.6 billion of covered bonds, and €50 million of asset-backed securities
The ECB cut its interest rate to 0.00% from 0.05% and deposit rate to -0.4% from -0.3% at its March monetary policy meeting. The ECB also expanded its monthly purchases to €80 billion from €60 billion.
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.17%, Nasdaq +0.07%, S&P +0.16%
Wall Street started the session at levels that in the small extent differ from the indications of derivatives. Europe extends the correction of Friday's weakness, but the CAC and the DAX indexes are still far to make up the losses from Friday. In fact, the German bulls managed to barely make up half of the decline from the last session. The WSE tries to nourish this impulse and no weakening of the zloty to the dollar, but at 130 million turnover every move is easy to generate.
It is worth to remember that tomorrow's macro calendar contains PMI reading for the Chinese industry, which in the absence of other data may raise some emotions in the markets, especially of raw materials.
The U.S. Commerce Department released construction spending data on Monday. Construction spending in the U.S. increased 0.3% in March, in line with expectations, after a 1.0% rise in February. February's figure was revised up from a 0.5% decline.
The increase was mainly driven by a rise in total private spending. Total public construction spending slid 1.9% in March, while total spending on private construction projects increased 1.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management released its manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. on Monday. The index slid to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. Analysts had expected the index to decrease to 51.5.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction.
The decrease was mainly driven by falls in production and new orders. The production index dropped to 54.2 in April from 55.3 in March, while the new orders index plunged to 55.8 from 58.3.
The employment index was up to 49.2 in April from 48.1 in March.
The price index jumped to 59.0 in April from 51.5 in March.
Markit Economics released its final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. on Monday. The U.S. final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March, in line with the preliminary estimate.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity.
The index was driven by a slower pace of growth in output and new business.
"The April PMI data suggest there's no end in sight to the current downturn in manufacturing activity," Markit's Chief Economist Chris Williamson said.
"Rather than reviving after a disappointingly weak first quarter, the data flow therefore appears to be worsening in the second quarter, raising question marks over whether GDP growth will improve on the near-stalling seen in the first three months of the year," he added.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the Supply Chain Management Association (SCMA) and Markit Economics released their RBC Canadian manufacturing PMI on Monday. The index rose to 52.2 in April from 51.5 in March. It was the highest level since December 2014.
The rise was mainly driven by increases in output, new orders and employment.
"The recent trend in Canadian manufacturing is encouraging with an improvement in output, new orders and employment. This pickup in activity has come alongside solid U.S. domestic demand and a more competitive currency which supports export activity," RBC senior vice-president and chief economist, Craig Wright, said.
EURUSD: 1.1400 (EUR 340m) 1.1475 (275m) 1.1500 (1.33bln)
GBPUSD 1.4650 (GBP 759m)
AUDUSD 0.7700 (AUD 294m) 0.7715 (505m)
The final Markit/Nikkei manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Japan rose to 48.2 in April from 48.0 in March, up from the preliminary reading of 48.0. It was the lowest level since January 2013.
March's figure was revised down from 49.1.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, a reading below 50 indicates contraction of activity.
Output, new orders and input prices declined at a faster pace in April.
"Latest survey data signalled a marked deterioration in operating conditions at Japanese manufacturers, partly a consequence of the two earthquakes which struck one of Japan's key manufacturing regions," economist at Markit, Amy Brownbill, said.
U.S. stock-index futures rose.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 16,147.38 -518.67 -3.11%
Hang Seng Closed
Shanghai Composite Closed
FTSE Closed
CAC 4,451.61 +22.65 +0.51%
DAX 10,131.53 +92.56 +0.92%
Crude $45.82 (-0.22%)
Gold $1301.50 (+0.85%)
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALCOA INC. | AA | 11.25 | 0.08(0.7162%) | 37460 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 62.84 | 0.13(0.2073%) | 600 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 661.7 | 2.11(0.3199%) | 28887 |
American Express Co | AXP | 65.55 | 0.12(0.1834%) | 156 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 55.84 | 0.02(0.0358%) | 50530 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 94.04 | 0.30(0.32%) | 153511 |
AT&T Inc | T | 38.89 | 0.07(0.1803%) | 11672 |
Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE | ABX | 19.58 | 0.21(1.0842%) | 296424 |
Boeing Co | BA | 134.7 | -0.10(-0.0742%) | 815 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 77.7 | -0.02(-0.0257%) | 3688 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 102.25 | 0.07(0.0685%) | 506 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 27.36 | -0.13(-0.4729%) | 6700 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 84.11 | 0.00(0.00%) | 1671 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 88.31 | -0.09(-0.1018%) | 6169 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 117.89 | 0.31(0.2636%) | 131327 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 13.6 | 0.04(0.295%) | 51384 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 14.21 | 0.21(1.50%) | 319401 |
General Electric Co | GE | 30.71 | -0.04(-0.1301%) | 27687 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 32.1 | 0.30(0.9434%) | 1362 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 695.83 | 2.82(0.4069%) | 1078 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 134.15 | 0.26(0.1942%) | 1325 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 114.27 | -0.00(-0.00%) | 2576 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 30.38 | 0.10(0.3302%) | 13152 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 146.38 | 0.44(0.3015%) | 656 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 112.08 | 0.00(0.00%) | 7435 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 63.34 | 0.14(0.2215%) | 300 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 126.52 | 0.03(0.0237%) | 6342 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 49.94 | 0.07(0.1404%) | 10445 |
Nike | NKE | 58.94 | -0.00(-0.00%) | 1665 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 32.83 | 0.12(0.3669%) | 4002 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 80.32 | 0.20(0.2496%) | 4393 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 56.28 | 0.05(0.0889%) | 4091 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 241.49 | 0.73(0.3032%) | 6205 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 44.83 | 0.03(0.067%) | 9815 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 14.73 | 0.11(0.7524%) | 80716 |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 104 | -0.37(-0.3545%) | 261 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 50.98 | 0.04(0.0785%) | 1991 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 66.85 | -0.02(-0.0299%) | 1982 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 103.5 | 0.24(0.2324%) | 15337 |
Yahoo! Inc., NASDAQ | YHOO | 36.68 | 0.08(0.2186%) | 21557 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 20.52 | 0.05(0.2443%) | 765 |
Markit Economics released its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Spain on Monday. Spain's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was up to 53.5 in April from 53.4 in March.
The increase was mainly driven by a faster growth in output, while input costs declined at a slower pace.
"There were mixed signals from the latest Spanish manufacturing PMI, with output growth accelerating but other key variables such as new orders and employment increasing at slower rates. There was also a noticeable weakening in the pace of cost deflation in April in a sign that inflationary pressures may be returning," a senior economist at Markit Andrew Harker said.
Upgrades:
Downgrades:
United Tech (UTX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Other:
Chevron (CVX) target raised to $114 from $110 at Jefferies
Markit Economics released its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Italy on Monday. Italy's Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI increased to 53.9 in April from 53.5 in March.
The increase was driven by a faster growth in output, new orders, exports and job creation, while output and input prices fell at a slower pace.
"The manufacturing economy showed signs of improved health in April. The PMI moved to its highest level in 2016 so far, as accelerating inflows of new orders led to a robust increase in production as well as the creation of more jobs at factories," Markit economist Phil Smith said.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
00:00 China Bank holiday
01:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m 0.0% 0.1%
02:00 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 48.0 Revised From 49.1 48.0 48.2
06:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.6% Revised From -0.4% -0.3%
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March -0.4% Revised From -0.2% -1.3%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI April 53.2 54.7
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 49.6 48.3 48
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 50.7 51.9 51.8
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 51.6 51.5 51.7
09:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks
The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the U.S. economic later in the day. The final manufacturing purchasing managers' index is expected to rise to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March.
The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index is expected to decrease to 51.5 in April from 51.8 in March.
The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the mostly positive final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for the Eurozone. Markit Economics released its final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone on Monday. Eurozone's final manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 in April from 51.6 in March, up from the preliminary reading of 51.5.
The rise was driven by a faster growth in employment and as deflationary pressures moderated.
"The survey is signalling an anaemic annual rate of growth of manufacturing production of just less than 1%, which is half the pace seen in the months leading up to the recent slowdown," Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said.
"The survey data therefore so far show no signs of ECB stimulus or the weaker euro helping to revive the manufacturing sector, at least for the euro area as a whole," he added.
Germany's final Markit/BME manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in April from 50.7 in March, down from the preliminary reading of 51.9. The index was mainly driven by rises in new business and employment.
France's final manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.0 in April from 49.6 in March, down the preliminary reading of 48.3. The index was driven by drops in new business, output and output prices. Output prices slid a fastest pace since July 2009.
The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic data from the U.K. Markets in the U.K. are closed for a public holiday.
The Swiss franc traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The Federal Statistical Office released its retail sales data for Switzerland on Monday. Retail sales in Switzerland were down at an annual rate of 1.3% in March, after a 0.4% decrease in February. February's figure was revised down from a 0.2% fall. On a monthly basis, retail sales fell by 0.3% in March, after a 0.6% drop in February. February's figure was revised down from a 0.4% fall.
Credit Suisse and procure.ch released their manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Switzerland on Monday. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index in Switzerland climbed to 54.7 in April from 53.2 in March, hitting the 2-year high. The increase was mainly driven by rises in output and backlog of orders sub-indexes. The production increased to 59.4 in April from 58.0 in March, while the backlog of orders sub-index jumped to 57.6 from 54.9.
EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.1498
GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.4690
USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 51.5 50.8
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m March -0.5% 0.3%
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing April 51.8 51.5
15:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
16:30 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
May 2
After the Close:
American International Group (AIG). Consensus EPS $1.00, Consensus Revenue $13749.00 mln
May 3
Before the Open:
Pfizer (PFE). Consensus EPS $0.55, Consensus Revenue $11991.71 mln
May 4
After the Close:
Tesla Motors (TSLA). Consensus EPS -$0.65, Consensus Revenue $1602.78 mln
May 5
Before the Open:
Merck (MRK). Consensus EPS $0.85, Consensus Revenue $9453.44 mln
The final of the forenoon phase of the session brings greater departure of the WIG20 from defended last week resistance. The WIG20 index in the middle of the session was in the area of 1,906 pts., which is largely a response to the rise in core markets. The DAX has been growing about 0,8 percent - far away to catch Friday's losses and a decrease of more than 3 percent in the previous week - and clearly creates upward pressure in Warsaw. It also helps to gold, which loses to the euro, but not to the dollar. Unfortunately, the turnover on the level of PLN 83 mln reinforces expectations that the session will not have serious, especially reliable consequences.
Stock indices traded higher after the release of the mostly positive final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for the Eurozone. Markit Economics released its final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone on Monday. Eurozone's final manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 in April from 51.6 in March, up from the preliminary reading of 51.5.
The rise was driven by a faster growth in employment and as deflationary pressures moderated.
"The survey is signalling an anaemic annual rate of growth of manufacturing production of just less than 1%, which is half the pace seen in the months leading up to the recent slowdown," Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said.
"The survey data therefore so far show no signs of ECB stimulus or the weaker euro helping to revive the manufacturing sector, at least for the euro area as a whole," he added.
Germany's final Markit/BME manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in April from 50.7 in March, down from the preliminary reading of 51.9. The index was mainly driven by rises in new business and employment.
France's final manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.0 in April from 49.6 in March, down the preliminary reading of 48.3. The index was driven by drops in new business, output and output prices. Output prices slid a fastest pace since July 2009.
Markets in the U.K. are closed for a public holiday.
Current figures:
Name Price Change Change %
FTSE 100 closed
DAX 10,119.77 +80.80 +0.80 %
CAC 40 4,443.16 +14.20 +0.32 %
Credit Suisse and procure.ch released their manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Switzerland on Monday. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index in Switzerland climbed to 54.7 in April from 53.2 in March, hitting the 2-year high.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The increase was mainly driven by rises in output and backlog of orders sub-indexes. The production increased to 59.4 in April from 58.0 in March, while the backlog of orders sub-index jumped to 57.6 from 54.9.
Purchase prices were up to 47.3 in April from 47.0 in March.
Employment rose to 49.1 in April from 46.1 in March.
The Federal Statistical Office released its retail sales data for Switzerland on Monday. Retail sales in Switzerland were down at an annual rate of 1.3% in March, after a 0.4% decrease in February. February's figure was revised down from a 0.2% fall.
Sales of food, beverages and tobacco climbed at an annual rate of 1.5% in March, while non-food sales dropped 5.7%.
On a monthly basis, retail sales fell by 0.3% in March, after a 0.6% drop in February. February's figure was revised down from a 0.4% fall.
Sales of food, beverages and tobacco declined 0.3% in March, while non-food sales dropped 1.6%.
Markit Economics released its final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for France on Monday. France's final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 48.0 in April from 49.6 in March, down the preliminary reading of 48.3.
The index was driven by drops in new business, output and output prices. Output prices slid a fastest pace since July 2009.
"The French manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction during April, precipitated by a steeper reduction in new order intakes. This was despite output prices being cut at the steepest rate since mid-2009, highlighting the sector's struggles in the face of persistently weak demand," Markit Senior Economist Jack Kennedy said.
Markit Economics released its final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Germany on Monday. Germany's final Markit/BME manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in April from 50.7 in March, down from the preliminary reading of 51.9.
The index was mainly driven by rises in new business and employment.
"Although some relief was offered by today's survey results, the German manufacturing sector remains stuck in a low gear at the start of the second quarter," Markit economist Oliver Kolodseike said.
Markit Economics released its final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the Eurozone on Monday. Eurozone's final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) climbed to 51.7 in April from 51.6 in March, up from the preliminary reading of 51.5.
The rise was driven by a faster growth in employment and as deflationary pressures moderated.
"The survey is signalling an anaemic annual rate of growth of manufacturing production of just less than 1%, which is half the pace seen in the months leading up to the recent slowdown," Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said.
"The survey data therefore so far show no signs of ECB stimulus or the weaker euro helping to revive the manufacturing sector, at least for the euro area as a whole," he added.
The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 11 rigs to 332 last week. It was the lowest level since 2009.
The number of gas rigs declined by 1 to 87.
Combined oil and gas rigs decreased by 12 to 420.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may reached the bottom, adding that it would depend on the global economy.
"In a normal economic environment, we will see the price direction is rather upwards than downwards," he said.
Birol noted that the oil market would rebalance in the second half of the year or next year.
Canada's government said on Friday that budget surplus narrowed to C$3.2 billion ($2.56 billion) in February. For 11 months of the fiscal year 2015-16, revenue climbed by 6.2%, program expenses increased by 7.0%, while public debt charges dropped 5.0%.
The government said in March that it expected budget deficits in the coming years.
The Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in April from 50.2 in March, according to the Chinese government. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 50.4.
A reading above the 50 mark indicates expansion, a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The decrease was driven by falls in output, new orders and employment. The production sub-index declined to 52.2 in April from 52.3 in March, the new orders sub-index was down to 51 from 51.4, and the new exports sub-index fell to 50.1 from 50.2, while the employment sub-index decreased to 47.8 from 48.1.
The services PMI decreased to 53.5 in April from 53.8 in March.
WIG20 futures took off 6 points above Friday's closing. This increase is part of a morning uplift of contracts on major European stock exchanges, but how this will translate into trade in the next stages of today's specific session is a different matter. Theoretically we have a chance to bounce in the context of the return movement to the broken last week support. Such opportunities are flowing at least from a technical analysis of the Friday session.
WIG20 index opened at 1898.93 points (+0.12%)*
WIG 47681.11 0.08%
WIG30 2118.74 0.04%
mWIG40 3622.23 0.22%
*/ - change to previous close
Europe begins sessions with the expected increases - the DAX and the CAC are growing by more than 0.5 per cent, while London is celebrating. For valuation of shares in the euro zone helps the weaker common currency, but the echo of this weakness is the strengthening of the dollar. Stronger dollar weakens zloty (PLN), which strength was helping the bulls in Warsaw at the end of Friday's session. As a result, the WIG20 begins the day without big change, but clearly outpacing the increases in the environment. The shallowness of the market causes, however, that a single bound slight decrease changes in uplift of 0.2 per cent. The topics for the sessions seem to be partly revealed: sensitivity to the condition of the zloty and a hole in the order book.
The yen hit a fresh 18-month high against the dollar, hurting the profit outlook for exporters and other shares that benefit from a weaker yen. The U.S. Treasury put Japan on a new currency monitoring list along with four other countries that have large trade surpluses with the United States. The report could make it harder for Japan to intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's gains. Japan's major automakers, which rely heavily on export sales for profits, underperformed the sagging Nikkei index. Toyota Motor Corp shares fell 3.8 percent while Nissan Motor Co Ltd tumbled 5 percent and Honda Motor Co Ltd declined 4 percent.
A private-sector gauge of Australian consumer prices showed inflation slowed further in April despite a pick up in petrol and heath care costs, underlining the case for a cut in interest rates perhaps as early as this week. Monday's survey from the Melbourne Institute showed consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent in April, after a flat outcome in March.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $1.1480
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.4590-20
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y106.15-75
Based on Reuters materials
Friday's trading on Wall Street ended in solidarity declines in major indices, which lost 0.3 to 0.6 percent. On Friday, Europe responded not only to the weakness of Wall Street.
The main element of lowering the share prices of CAC and DAX indexes was the strength of the euro against the dollar, and in this area there is no change. The dollar remains weak against the yen and euro. It does not help also in Asia, where the Nikkei in response to the strength of the yen lost 3,3 percent today. In short, at the threshold of a new week the atmosphere is not better than at the end of the previous one.
Investors' attention should shift to always published at the beginning of the month readings of PMI indices in the euro zone. In the next hours will be valid until the reading of the US ISM also for the industry. The London market is closed today, Chinese stock exchanges are also off. Therefore on the Warsaw Stock Exchange a low liquidity and low turnover are expected today.
Starting today May on core markets is considered to be a weak period for stocks. This favors the extension of the April correction, which may result in a decline in WIG20 in area of ,1800 points. The market had also recently sensitivity to the condition of the zloty (PLN), which will be an important element in the balance of power in the course of the month starting today.
European stocks suffered their worst session in two months Friday, as investors tackled a raft of economic data and a fresh batch of corporate results as the week and month drew to a close. But, separately, inflation in the currency bloc fell to negative 0.2% in April, missing expectations for a flat reading. The data highlight the challenge of stubbornly low inflation the European Central Bank has been battling against.
Stocks fell on Friday as blue-chip tech shares dragged on the market, but the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average clung to April gains to score the second monthly rise in a row. While the earnings flow was light during the day, stocks were still reeling from a sharp selloff in the second half of a Thursday session that was driven by a number of factors-including a weak reading on U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product and a surprise decision by the Bank of Japan to leave monetary policy on hold. Dow industrials had stumbled more than 200 points on Thursday for their worst drop in two months.
Japanese stocks fell sharply early Monday, leading declines in the rest of Asia, on the yen's surge to a new 1½-year high against the dollar, weak earnings results from several firms and selling after the Bank of Japan's inaction on Thursday.
Based on MarketWatch materials
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1544 (5905)
$1.1515 (2742)
$1.1481 (3594)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1466
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1400 (885)
$1.1371 (2732)
$1.1334 (3390)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 6 is 42916 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5905);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 6 is 59175 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (10024);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.38 versus 1.40 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 29
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.4901 (348)
$1.4802 (921)
$1.4704 (1054)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.4605
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.4497 (880)
$1.4399 (1462)
$1.4299 (831)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 6 is 24946 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (2063);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 6 is 34125 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (4025);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.37 versus 1.34 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 29
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Oil 45.70 -0.48%
Gold 1,293.30 +0.22%
(index / closing price / change items /% change)
Hang Seng 21,067.05 -320.98 -1.50 %
S&P/ASX 200 5,252.22 +26.79 +0.51 %
Shanghai Composite 2,938.45 -7.14 -0.24 %
Topix 1,340.55 -43.75 -3.16 %
FTSE 100 6,241.89 -80.51 -1.27 %
CAC 40 4,428.96 -128.40 -2.82 %
Xetra DAX 10,038.97 -282.18 -2.73 %
S&P 500 2,065.3 -10.51 -0.51 %
NASDAQ Composite 4,775.36 -29.93 -0.62 %
Dow Jones 17,773.64 -57.12 -0.32 %
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1451 +0,86%
GBP/USD $1,4607 +0,01%
USD/CHF Chf0,9593 -0,74%
USD/JPY Y106,49 -1,53%
EUR/JPY Y121,74 -0,82%
GBP/JPY Y155,33 -1,67%
AUD/USD $0,7604 -0,33%
NZD/USD $0,6976 +0,23%
USD/CAD C$1,2551 -0,07%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m 0.0%
01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m March -5.3%
01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI April 49.7
02:00 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 49.1 48.0
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) March -0.4%
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March -0.2%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI April 53.2
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 49.6 48.3
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 50.7 51.9
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 51.6 51.5
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 51.5 50.8
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m March -0.5% 0.3%
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing April 51.8 51.5