Notícias do Mercado

7 novembro 2013
  • 20:01

    U.S.: Consumer Credit , September 13.7 (forecast 12.8)

  • 19:00

    American focus : the dollar against the euro has increased markedly

    The euro exchange rate against the dollar has declined markedly , although half of the previously recovered lost ground as market participants' attention shifted to tomorrow's employment report in the U.S.. Experts expect the number of people employed in non c / agricultural sector grew in October at 126 thousand , compared with an increase of 148 million in September .

    It should be noted that today, the pressure on the European currency had the ECB's decision to lower its key policy rates to a new record low , and the lending rate , as some analysts predicted after last week's euro zone inflation data came out much worse than expected. The Governing Council of the ECB lowered its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points up to 0.25 %. The bank also lowered the rate of lending by 25 basis points to 0.75 %, while the deposit rate remained unchanged at 0.00%. ECB refrained from lowering rates in May .

    Negative for the euro was also a report on the United States, which showed that the gross domestic product , the broadest measure of goods and services produced in all sectors of the economy, grew at an annual rate of 2.8 % in the third quarter. The result showed the highest growth rate for the year , which followed a 2.5 % rise in the second quarter. Economists had expected growth in the third quarter will be at 1.9 %. The report reflects a good picture of the state of the economy before the 16 -day partial government shutdown , which began Oct. 1. The higher growth housekeeper largely attributable to restocking by companies and the rise in the cost of state and local governments.

    The report showed that inflation in general has increased , but the basic prices remain weak. The price index for personal consumption expenditures - an indicator that the Fed is used as a benchmark of inflation - rose by 1.9 %. The rate of core inflation , which excludes volatile food prices and energy prices, rose 1.4 %. This indicates that the core inflation rate remains below the annual forecast of the inflation the Fed at 2% .

    The yen declined significantly against the dollar, losing points scored in response to the publication of the U.S. GDP . We add that the pair slid to new lows against the fading of euphoria and reduction of U.S. stocks .

    Experts also point out that when a couple has broken this morning , investors rushed to buy it , even though many have placed stop orders at Y99. These stop orders were triggered when the pair fell back to the level of Y99, causing large dollar sales and pitting the pair to Y98.50. There were "large dollar purchases at lower " and it means that the pair is likely to remain below Y99 not for long.

  • 15:15

    Japan's leading index rises sharply in September

    An indicator of the performance of the Japanese economy increased sharply in September, after falling in the previous month, preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office showed Thursday.
    The leading economic index, which is designed to measure changes in the direction of the economy, moved up to 109.5 in September from 106.8 in August. The September score was slightly above 109.4 economists had forecast. In July, the index was at 107.9.
    At the same time, the coincident economic index, which measures the current economic situation, advanced to 108.2 in September from 107.6 a month earlier.
    The lagging index, which gauges the past performance of the economy, increased to 115.1 from 114.4 in August, data showed.

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y97.75, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y98.60, Y99.00, Y100.00

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3650, $1.3700

    GBP/USD $1.6100

    EUR/GBP stg0.8400, stg0.8425, stg0.8450, stg0.8470, stg0.8485

    USD/CHF Chf0.9060, Chf0.9100, Chf0.9150

    AUD/USD $0.9450, $0.9470, $0.9475, $0.9500, $0.9550

    AUD/NZD Y94.00

    NZD/USD $0.8275, $0.8425

    USD/CAD C$1.0425, C$1.0440

  • 13:31

    U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q, Quarter III +1.9% (forecast +1.5%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, October 336 (forecast 332)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: GDP, q/q, Quarter III +2.8% (forecast +1.9%)

  • 13:16

    European session: the euro fell

    06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter III -9 -2 -5

    08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves October 432.4 434.7

    11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) September +1.6% Revised From +1.4% +0.2% -0.9%

    11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) September +0.9% Revised From +0.3% +0.8% +1.0%

    12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375 375

    12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

    12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

    12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.25%


    The euro fell sharply against major currencies after the ECB decided to lower its key policy rates to a new record low , and the lending rate , as some analysts predicted after last week's euro zone inflation data came out much worse than expected. The Governing Council of the ECB lowered its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points up to 0.25 %. The bank also lowered the rate of lending by 25 basis points to 0.75 %, while the deposit rate remained unchanged at 0.00%. ECB refrained from lowering rates in May . Now all attention turned to the speech of the Central Bank , Mario Draghi , who will comment on the government's decision at a press conference scheduled for 13:30 GMT.

    Previously, the pressure on the single currency had data on German industrial production . The volume of German industrial production fell more than expected to 0.9 percent in September , although the two-month average suggests that the situation in the industry in Europe's largest economy is on the path to growth. Industrial production declined in spite of the consensus forecast of economists, who had expected growth of 0.2 percent. The value in August was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points , and recorded a growth of 1.6 percent. The two-month average showed a slight increase in production of 0.6 percent , according to the Ministry of Economy. " Production in the manufacturing sector as a whole is on the way up , despite a slight decrease in the current level," the ministry said .

    The pound fell against the dollar after the ECB decision , but previously ignored the decision of the Bank of England to keep monetary policy unchanged. At the last meeting of the Bank of England did not bring any surprises markets , leaving the key lending rate at a record low 0.5 %, where it has been since March 2009 , while the purchase of assets remained at £ 375 billion the central bank announced its intention to keep rates at a low level as long as the rate b / d in Britain will not fall below 7% , which is not expected before 2016. The latest economic forecasts willows within the inflation report will be published on 13 November. Minutes of this meeting will be made public on Wednesday, November 20.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3353


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6015

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y98.81

    At 13:30 GMT will be the monthly press conference of the ECB . At 13:30 GMT the United States will publish the change in GDP for the quarter , the GDP price index , an index of personal consumption expenditures , the main index of personal consumption expenditures in Q3 . At 19:00 GMT deliver a speech , ECB President Mario Draghi .

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3600, $1.3565/70, $1.3550

    Bids $1.3500, $1.3450/40, $1.3420, $1.3350


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6200/10, $1.6180, $1.6140/50, $1.6120/25

    Bids $1.6050/40, $1.6020, $1.6005/00, $1.5985/80, $1.5950


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9600, $0.9575/80, $0.9555/65, $0.9500

    Bids $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8520/30, stg0.8500, stg0.8480, stg0.8415/20

    Bids stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8370/65, stg0.8320, stg0.8300


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y134.20, Y134.00

    Bids Y133.10/00, Y132.55/50, Y132.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y99.50, Y99.20, Y99.00

    Bids Y98.00, Y97.80


  • 12:46

    Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, 0.25% (forecast 0.50%)

  • 12:00

    United Kingdom: BoE Interest Rate Decision, 0.50% (forecast 0.50%)

  • 12:00

    United Kingdom: Asset Purchase Facility, 375 (forecast 375)

  • 11:00

    Germany: Industrial Production s.a. (MoM), September -0.9% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 10:45

    Swiss consumer confidence improves in October

    Sentiment among Swiss consumers improved in three months through October, a survey published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, revealed Thursday.

    The confidence index rose to -5 in October from -9 in the July survey. Economists had forecast a better reading of -4.

    This development largely reflected households' more optimistic expectations with regard to the economic prospects and the labor market over the next 12 months, SECO said in the survey report.

    At the same time, the expectations for their personal financial situation and opportunities for savings over the coming months remained broadly at the same level as in July.

    Between October and July, both the assessment of inflation over the last twelve months as well as the prospects for inflation for the coming twelve months remained virtually unchanged, SECO said.

  • 10:20

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y97.75, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y98.60, Y99.00, Y100.00

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3650, $1.3700

    GBP/USD $1.6100

    EUR/GBP stg0.8400, stg0.8425, stg0.8450, stg0.8470, stg0.8485

    USD/CHF Chf0.9060, Chf0.9100, Chf0.9150

    AUD/USD $0.9450, $0.9470, $0.9475, $0.9500, $0.9550

    AUD/NZD Y94.00

    NZD/USD $0.8275, $0.8425

    USD/CAD C$1.0425

  • 08:00

    Switzerland: Foreign Currency Reserves, October 434.7

  • 07:01

    Asian session: The euro held a gain from yesterday

    00:30 Australia Unemployment rate October 5.6% 5.7% 5.7%

    00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed October 9.1 10.3 1.1

    05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index September 106.8 109.4 109.5

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index September 107.6 108.3 108.2


    The euro held a gain from yesterday versus most major peers before European Central Bank policy makers meet today amid speculation the region’s economy isn’t fragile enough to warrant an interest-rate cut. The ECB will leave its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.5 percent today, according to 67 of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Bank of America Corp., Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS AG predict the central bank will reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points.

    A gauge of U.S dollar strength remained lower before data that may show an expansion in U.S. gross domestic product slowed last quarter. U.S. GDP grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, down from 2.5 percent in the previous three months, according to a Bloomberg survey before the data are released today. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 120,000 last month after a 148,000 gain in September, Labor Department figures may show tomorrow, a separate poll indicates.

    Australia’s dollar slid after a government report showed employers added 1,100 jobs in October. Economists forecast a gain of 10,000 workers, according to the median response in a Bloomberg poll.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3500-20

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6065-85

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y98.55-75


    The main focus for the day is undoubtedly the key policy decisions from both the ECB and the BOE, both due lunchtime. Across the Atlantic, the third quarter US GDP data will be the highlight. There is only a limited European data calendar expected ahead of the central bank decisions. At 0800GMT, Spain's September industrial output data is set for release. At 1100GMT, Germany's September industrial output data will be published. The ECB announces the latest policy decision at 1245GMT, with President Draghi's press conference expected at 1330GMT.

    The first central bank decision of the day is expected at 1200GMT, when the Bank of England announces their outcome. With the economic recovery starting to gain traction, no change is seen either in Bank Rate or QE levels, with forward guidance firmly anchored.

  • 06:46

    Switzerland: SECO Consumer Climate, Quarter III -5 (forecast -2)

  • 06:24

    Currencies. Daily history for Nov 6'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3513 +0,30%

    GBP/USD $1,6078 +0,21%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9119 -0,15%

    USD/JPY Y98,64 +0,15%

    EUR/JPY Y133,30 +0,46%

    GBP/JPY Y158,61 +0,38%

    AUD/USD $0,9526 +0,20%

    NZD/USD $0,8375 +0,14%

    USD/CAD C$1,0417 -0,35%

  • 05:59

    Schedule for today, Thursday, Nov 7’2013:

    00:30 Australia Unemployment rate October 5.6% 5.7%

    00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed October 9.1 10.3

    05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index September 106.8 109.4

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index September 107.6 108.3

    06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter III -9 -2

    08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves October 432.4

    11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) September +1.4% +0.2%

    11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) September +0.3% +0.8%

    12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

    12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

    12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

    12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

    13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

    13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +1.8% +1.6%

    13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +0.6% +1.5%

    13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims October 340 332

    13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter III +2.5% +1.9%

    18:50 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks

    19:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

    20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit September 13.6 12.8

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