Notícias do Mercado

6 novembro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus : the dollar fell against the euro

    The euro exchange rate rose sharply against the dollar, although it has lost some of the previously won positions in response to rumors that report , quoting official sources in the ECB that the decline in inflation does not become a reason to lower the rates of the Central Bank at tomorrow's meeting.

    Now the pair continues to consolidate above the key level of 1.3500 , and all the attention of market participants have already drawn for tomorrow's ECB meeting . Meanwhile, traders are walking among rumors of a possible lowering of rates or operated other instrument of monetary stimulus .

    If the ECB decides tomorrow to leave rates unchanged , likely rally EUR / USD will be much less extensive than the fall , which could determine the reduction rate by 25 basis points This is due to the fact that after the announcement of the decision itself (presumably - the abandonment rate at the same level ), attention switches to the markets of the subsequent press conference , the tone of which can be very dovish , and will assume or the inclusion of the ECB dictionary of vocabulary or allusions to measures - and potentially aggressive - in the future . "

    The pound traded higher against the dollar, while retreating from a session high . Note that initially helped the growth of currency data on industrial production in the UK , which showed that total production rose by 2.2 percent year on year in September , after falling 1.5 percent in August and 1.1 percent decline in July. The consensus forecast of economists was at 1.8 percent.

    In addition, the data showed that manufacturing output increased by 0.8 percent annually in September. This happened after falling 0.2 percent in August and 0.4 percent drop in July. The result corresponds to the forecast of economists.

    On a monthly basis , total production increased by 0.9 percent compared with a forecast of 0.7 percent growth. Manufacturing output increased by 1.2 percent in September compared with the previous month , in line with economists' forecasts .

    It should be noted that the support of the pound has also had a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which showed that economic growth in the UK for three months , including October , is 0.7 %, mainly due to service companies of the private sector . It is slightly smaller than the GDP growth of 0.8 % in the three months through September , and significantly less than the growth of 1.3% , which was mentioned in the latest study by PMI .

    NIESR expects GDP growth rate in 2013 at 1.4 % , and 2.0 % in 2014 , slightly below average expectations of economists.

    Add that little pressure on the currency have expectations of tomorrow's Bank of England decision . Note that the Bank of England is likely to leave monetary policy unchanged, despite signs of strengthening the economy , as fulfills the promise to keep the level of the key rate , while unemployment exceeds the benchmark .

  • 15:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, October +1.6

  • 15:01

    Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, October 62.8 (forecast 54.7)

  • 15:00

    United Kingdom: NIESR GDP Estimate, October +0.7% (forecast +0.5%)

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Leading Indicators , September +0.7% (forecast +0.7%)

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.45, Y98.50, Y98.65, Y98.75, Y99.00, Y100.00

    EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3600, $1.3620, $1.3650

    GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6010, $1.6060, $1.6075

    EUR/GBP stg0.8445, stg0.8470

    USD/CHF Chf0.9100

    AUD/USD $0.9400, $0.9500

    AUD/JPY Y94.00

    AUD/CHF Chf0.8550, Chf0.8600

    NZD/USD $0.8225

    USD/CAD C$1.0395, C$1.0430, C$1.0455, C$1.0500

  • 13:30

    Canada: Building Permits (MoM) , September +1.7% (forecast +7.8%)

  • 13:16

    European session: the pound rose

    08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index October +0.3% +0.4% +0.7%

    08:00 nited Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y October +6.2% +7.0% +6.9%

    08:48 France Services PMI (Finally) October 50.2 50.2 50.9

    08:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) October 52.3 52.3 52.9

    08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) October 50.9 50.9 51.6

    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) September -1.1% +0.7% +0.9%

    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) September -1.5% +1.8% +2.2%

    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) September -1.2% +1.2% +1.2%

    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) September -0.2% +0.8% +0.8%

    10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) September +0.5% Revised From +0.7% -0.3% -0.6%

    10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) September -0.2% Revised From -0.3% +0.6% +0.3%

    11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) September -0.3% +0.6% +3.3%

    11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) September +3.1% +5.6% +7.9%


    The euro traded in a range against the dollar amid mixed statistics on retail sales in the euro zone and industrial orders in Germany.

    Retail sales in the euro zone fell in September as consumer spending remained weak against the backdrop of high unemployment and slow wage growth . Retail sales rose in July and August, and their fall in September serves as a reminder that , despite the rise in consumer confidence , consumer demand in the euro area remains sluggish and inflation pressures - is extremely low. The European Union 's statistics agency announced on Wednesday that sales in September compared with August fell by 0.6 % , although up 0.3 % compared to the same period in 2012 . The data was worse than expected.

    Orders in the industrial sector in Germany in September rebounded sharply thanks to strong foreign demand for capital goods , as well as in a large volume of orders for big-ticket items . Orders in the manufacturing sector rebounded in September by 3.3 % compared with the previous month , far exceeding forecasts of economists, who expected an increase of 0.6 %. In the previous two months, the volume of orders decreased.

    Strong performance of orders in September provided a jump in foreign demand : foreign orders jumped by 6.8 % compared with the previous month , offsetting a 1.0% decline in domestic demand. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the total volume of orders adjusted for the number of working days increased by 7.9%. Unadjusted orders jumped 11.0%.

    The pound rose against the dollar , supported by data on industrial production in Britain.

    British industrial production rose in September after two consecutive declines , according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics . Recovery was stronger than economists expected.

    Total production increased by 2.2 percent year on year in September , after falling 1.5 percent in August and 1.1 percent decline in July. The consensus forecast of economists was at the level of growth of 1.8 percent .

    Manufacturing output grew by 0.8 per cent per annum in September. This happened after falling 0.2 percent in August and 0.4 percent drop in July. The result corresponds to the forecast of economists.

    On a monthly basis , total production increased by 0.9 percent compared with a forecast of 0.7 percent growth. Manufacturing output increased by 1.2 percent in September compared with the previous month , in line with economists' forecasts .


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.3486 - $ 1.3528


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6117

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y98.46


    Canada at 13:30 GMT will publish the change in volume of building permits issued in September , at 15:00 GMT - the index of the PMI Ivey ( seasonally adjusted ) from the Ivey PMI index for October. At 15:00 GMT Britain will release data on the change in GDP from NIESR for October. At 18:00 GMT the United States places the 10 - year bonds .

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3650, $1.3615/20, $1.3600, $1.3565/70, $1.3540/50, $1.3525

    Bids $1.3420, $1.3350


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6200/10, $1.6180, $1.6160/65, $1.6140/50, $1.6120/25

    Bids $1.6050/40, $1.6021


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9650, $0.9600, $0.9575/80, $0.9545/50

    Bids $0.9500, $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8650/55, stg0.8600/05, stg0.8575/85, stg0.8520/30, stg0.8500, stg0.8480

    Bids stg0.8380, stg0.8370/65, stg0.8320, stg0.8300


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y134.20, Y134.00, Y133.40/50

    Bids Y132.80, Y132.55/50, Y132.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y99.50, Y99.20, Y99.00

    Bids Y98.00, Y97.80


  • 11:20

    Eurozone retail sales fall more than forecast

    Eurozone retail sales declined slightly more than expected in September driven by the weakness in both food and non-food product turnover, data showed Wednesday.

    The volume of retail sales dropped 0.6 percent month-on-month, reversing August's 0.5 percent rise, Eurostat reported. Economists had forecast sales to fall 0.4 percent in September.

    Sale of food, drinks and tobacco slipped 0.6 percent and non-food product sales edged down 0.1 percent.

    Compared to the same period of last year, retail sales were up 0.3 percent in September, in contrast to the 0.2 percent drop seen in August.

  • 11:10

    Eurozone's private sector expands faster than estimated

    Eurozone's private sector business activity expanded at a slightly faster pace than previously estimated in October, detailed results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Wednesday. However, the rate of expansion remained weaker than that of September.

    The composite output index, an indicator that measures performance of both manufacturing and service sectors, came in at 51.9, higher than the flash reading of 51.5. In September, the index stood at 52.2, a 27-month high.

    This suggested that the October slowdown was less marked than originally thought, Markit said.

    A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.

    The services business activity index scored 51.6 in October, up from the preliminary reading of 50.9. This was lower than 52.2 in September.

    New orders received by Eurozone private sector grew at a weaker pace in October, leading to further fall in employment.

  • 11:02

    Germany: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY), September +7.9% (forecast +5.6%)

  • 11:00

    Germany: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM), September +3.3% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 10:45

    U.K. industrial output rebounds in September

    British industrial production bounced back in September after two consecutive declines, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The rebound was stronger than expected by economists.

    Total production rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in September following a 1.5 percent fall in August and a 1.1 percent decline in July. The consensus was for an increase of 1.8 percent.

    Manufacturing output grew 0.8 percent annually in September. This comes after a 0.2 percent fall in August and a 0.4 percent drop in July. The outcome matched economists' forecast.

    On a monthly basis, total production increased 0.9 percent compared with forecast for a 0.6 percent gain. Factory output increased 1.2 percent in September from a month earlier, a tad faster than 1.1 percent rise expected.

  • 10:27

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.45, Y98.50, Y98.65, Y98.75, Y99.00, Y100.00

    EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3600, $1.3620, $1.3650

    GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6010, $1.6060, $1.6075

    EUR/GBP stg0.8445, stg0.8470

    USD/CHF Chf0.9100

    AUD/USD $0.9400, $0.9500

    AUD/JPY Y94.00

    AUD/CHF Chf0.8550, Chf0.8600

    NZD/USD $0.8225

    USD/CAD C$1.0395, C$1.0430

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), September -0.6% (forecast -0.3%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), September +0.3% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Industrial Production (MoM), September +0.9% (forecast +0.7%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Industrial Production (YoY), September +2.2% (forecast +1.8%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (MoM) , September +1.2% (forecast +1.2%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (YoY), September +0.8% (forecast +0.8%)

  • 09:00

    Eurozone: Services PMI, October 51.6 (forecast 50.9)

  • 08:53

    Germany: Services PMI, October 52.9 (forecast 52.3)

  • 08:48

    France: Services PMI, October 50.9 (forecast 50.2)

  • 08:04

    United Kingdom: Halifax house price index, October +0.7% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 08:04

    United Kingdom: Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y, October +6.9% (forecast +7.0%)

  • 07:03

    Asian session: The euro rose against the dollar

    00:30 Australia Trade Balance September -0.82 -0.51 -0.28


    The euro rose against the dollar and the yen as traders speculated a recent drop in the common currency was too rapid with economists saying the European Central Bank will hold interest rates unchanged tomorrow.

    The yen fell against major peers as a surge in Asian equities reduced demand for the currency as a haven.

    The dollar retreated from near a six-week high against the euro before data tomorrow forecast to show the world’s largest economy slowed last quarter, weighing on expectations the Federal Reserve will move to reduce stimulus. A report tomorrow is predicted to show U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, down from 2.5 percent in the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said yesterday economic growth in recent months has fallen short of his expectations, partially eroding his confidence gains in the labor market will endure without monetary stimulus.

    New Zealand’s kiwi climbed to its highest since Oct. 24 as employers added more jobs than forecast. The nation’s employment rose 1.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 0.4 percent gain in the previous three months.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3525

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.9095

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y98.75


    Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway from 1200GMT, when the MBA Mortgage Index for the November 1 week are released, followed by the October challenger layoffs data at 1230GMT. At 1500GMT, the US September Leading Indicator data will be released. The index of leading indicators is expected to rise 0.7% in September. Positive contributions are expected from a lower initial claims level and some rebound in stock prices, offset by a decline in consumer expectations and a shorter factory workweek. At 1530GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the November 1 week are due to be released. At 1810GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto will deliver a speech on housing and the economy, in Columbus, Ohio.

  • 06:24

    Currencies. Daily history for Nov 5'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3473 -0,30%

    GBP/USD $1,6045 +0,49%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9133 +0,41%

    USD/JPY Y98,49 -0,10%

    EUR/JPY Y132,69 -0,41%

    GBP/JPY Y158,00 +0,37%

    AUD/USD $0,9507 -0,02%

    NZD/USD $0,8363 +0,96%

    USD/CAD C$1,0453 +0,30%

  • 06:05

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, Nov 6’2013:

    00:30 Australia Trade Balance September -0.82 -0.51

    08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index October +0.3% +0.4%

    08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y October +6.2% +7.0%

    08:48 France Services PMI (Finally) October 50.2 50.2

    08:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) October 52.3 52.3

    08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) October 50.9 50.9

    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) September -1.1% +0.7%

    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) September -1.5% +1.8%

    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) September -1.2% +1.2%

    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) September -0.2% +0.8%

    10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) September +0.7% -0.3%

    10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) September -0.3% +0.6%

    11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) September -0.3% +0.6%

    11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) September +3.1% +5.6%

    13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) September -21.2% +7.8%

    15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate October +0.8% +0.5%

    15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index October 51.9 54.7

    15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators September +0.7% +0.7%

    15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories October +4.1

    22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index October 47.6

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