News on 6 novembro 2013

20:00

Dow +115.69 15,733.91 +0.74% Nasdaq -11.08 3,928.78 -0.28% S&P +6.32 1,769.29 +0.36%

19:20

American focus : the dollar fell against the euro

The euro exchange rate rose sharply against the dollar, although it has lost some of the previously won positions in response to rumors that report , quoting official sources in the ECB that the decline in inflation does not become a reason to lower the rates of the Central Bank at tomorrow's meeting.

Now the pair continues to consolidate above the key level of 1.3500 , and all the attention of market participants have already drawn for tomorrow's ECB meeting . Meanwhile, traders are walking among rumors of a possible lowering of rates or operated other instrument of monetary stimulus .

If the ECB decides tomorrow to leave rates unchanged , likely rally EUR / USD will be much less extensive than the fall , which could determine the reduction rate by 25 basis points This is due to the fact that after the announcement of the decision itself (presumably - the abandonment rate at the same level ), attention switches to the markets of the subsequent press conference , the tone of which can be very dovish , and will assume or the inclusion of the ECB dictionary of vocabulary or allusions to measures - and potentially aggressive - in the future . "

The pound traded higher against the dollar, while retreating from a session high . Note that initially helped the growth of currency data on industrial production in the UK , which showed that total production rose by 2.2 percent year on year in September , after falling 1.5 percent in August and 1.1 percent decline in July. The consensus forecast of economists was at 1.8 percent.

In addition, the data showed that manufacturing output increased by 0.8 percent annually in September. This happened after falling 0.2 percent in August and 0.4 percent drop in July. The result corresponds to the forecast of economists.

On a monthly basis , total production increased by 0.9 percent compared with a forecast of 0.7 percent growth. Manufacturing output increased by 1.2 percent in September compared with the previous month , in line with economists' forecasts .

It should be noted that the support of the pound has also had a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which showed that economic growth in the UK for three months , including October , is 0.7 %, mainly due to service companies of the private sector . It is slightly smaller than the GDP growth of 0.8 % in the three months through September , and significantly less than the growth of 1.3% , which was mentioned in the latest study by PMI .

NIESR expects GDP growth rate in 2013 at 1.4 % , and 2.0 % in 2014 , slightly below average expectations of economists.

Add that little pressure on the currency have expectations of tomorrow's Bank of England decision . Note that the Bank of England is likely to leave monetary policy unchanged, despite signs of strengthening the economy , as fulfills the promise to keep the level of the key rate , while unemployment exceeds the benchmark .

18:20

European stock close

European stocks climbed to a five-year high after companies from Alstom SA to ING Groep NV posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, and as industrial data from Germany and the U.K. improved.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3 percent to 323.14 at 4:30 p.m. in London, its highest level since May 22, 2008. The equity benchmark has rallied 16 percent so far in 2013, its best performance since 2009.

A report from the Office for National Statistics showed U.K. industrial production rose 0.9 percent in September, rebounding from its biggest decline in almost a year and exceeding the median forecast for growth of 0.6 percent.

A release from Germany’s Economy Ministry showed factory orders in Europe’s largest economy increased 3.3 percent in September. That exceeded the 0.5 percent median estimate of economists..

Markit Economics’ gauge of services industries in the 17-nation euro area fell at a slower-than-projected rate in October. A separate report from the European Union’s statistics agency showed that retail sales in the currency bloc increased 0.3 percent in September from last year, less than the 0.6 percent gain that economists had predicted.

The European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 percent at tomorrow’s meeting, according to three out of 70 estimates. Eight of 38 economists in a separate survey forecast policy makers will lower interest rates in December.

National benchmark indexes climbed in every Western-European market except the U.K. and Iceland.

FTSE 100 6,741.69 -5.15 -0.08% CAC 40 4,286.93 +33.59 +0.79% DAX 9,040.87 +31.76 +0.35%

Alstom, the French maker of trains, gained 6.5 percent to 28.84 euros, its biggest advance since June 2012. Operating profit in the period between April 1 and Sept. 30 fell to 695 million euros from 703 million euros last year. That still beat the average analyst estimate of 664 million euros. Chief Executive Officer Patrick Kron said the company will seek to sell a minority stake in Alstom Transport SA and other assets, according to a statement.

ING added 3.6 percent to 9.61 euros, rebounding from its biggest loss since August. Net income dropped 85 percent to 101 million euros in the third quarter from a year earlier, following a 950 million-euro writedown on the sale of its South Korean life insurance unit. Analysts had predicted a 27.3 million-euro loss. The Dutch financial-services company also said it has reached an agreement with the European Commission to sell more than 50 percent of ING Life Japan by the end of 2015.

Adecco climbed 3.6 percent to 68.50 Swiss francs after saying third-quarter net income surged 61 percent to 190 million euros. That exceeded the 138.2 million-euro average estimate of analysts. Sales dropped less in France this quarter, its largest market, while revenue from Spain and Portugal showed its first quarterly increase in more than two years, Adecco said in a statement.

Axel Springer AG, the publisher of the Die Welt and Bild-Zeitung newspapers in Germany, advanced 1.8 percent to 44.20 euros. Third-quarter sales rose 3.6 percent to 815.8 million euros from last year, beating the 808 million-euro average estimate.

Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) surged 15 percent to 167.20 kroner, its highest price since May 2011. The world’s largest wind-turbine maker forecast an earnings-before-interest-and-taxes margin of at least 2 percent in 2013, up from 1 percent in the second quarter. Vestas also said free cash flow will exceed 500 million euros and may climb as high as 700 million euros, more than double the previous estimate.

17:00

European stock close: FTSE 100 6,741.69 -5.15 -0.08% CAC 40 4,286.93 +33.59 +0.79% DAX 9,040.87 +31.76 +0.35%

16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The price of oil has grown considerably today , rising at the same time to $ 95 (WTI) and $ 106 (Brent), which was associated with an unexpectedly large drop in gasoline inventories in the United States, and the concerns about reduced supplies from Libya.

Note that the data of the Department of Energy on changes in stocks in the U.S. for the week October 27 - November 2 showed that:

- Oil stocks rose 1.577 million barrels to 385.448 million barrels ;

- Gasoline inventories decreased by 3,755 million barrels . to 210.036 million barrels . ;

- Distillate stocks fell 4.899 million barrels . to 117.817 million barrels .

- Refining capacity utilization rate of 86.8 % versus 87.3 % a week earlier .

We also add that according to preliminary data analysis organization , " American Petroleum Institute " (API), which came out yesterday, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States on the basis of the reporting week ending November 1 , increased by 871 thousand barrels per day . , While the industry experts forecast a week before the rise in oil inventories at 2.4-2.6 million barrels.

According to analysts , the overall picture is still negative for oil , given the low level of demand, especially in Europe.

Meanwhile , we note that the increase in oil prices today are also due to the active technical purchases of oil futures , which on the eve of significantly dropped in price , providing favorable conditions for opening long positions.

In addition, the rise in the cost of oil to maintain a positive macroeconomic data from the euro zone . The composite index of business activity in the region , in the final assessment in October fell to 51.9 points from 52.2 points in September , when the figure stood at the highest in more than two years level. However, the data were better than analysts' forecasts , which believed that the rate will remain at the level of the initial assessment of 51.5 points.

The cost of the December futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 94.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 0.37 to $ 106.01 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

16:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices rose slightly today , breaking with the longest string of declines in nearly six months, as the dollar fell to strengthen expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will expand its monetary stimulus . Note that , according to John Williams , president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco , the economic growth in the U.S. in recent months, did not meet expectations. In this regard , he noted that the situation in the labor market are unlikely to improve without incentives.

It should be noted that the timing of a possible narrowing of the monthly bond purchases by the Fed was the main factor that influenced the price of gold. Precious metal has lost a fifth of its value so far on fears that the Fed will reduce the volume of stimulation.

Recent mixed economic data cast doubt on the real strength of the U.S. economy, leading some economists were made with the assumption that the Fed will change its policy before the end of the year.

Add that trading volumes were low in the past few sessions , and , most likely, and will remain so in the coming days , as investors are awaiting data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the economy, which may give more clues about the state of the economy and future incentives by the Fed .

Also, market participants are waiting for the ECB 's interest rate. Improvement in macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. and the UK in sharp contrast with the data from the euro zone , where in the last week have been reported record- high unemployment and negative inflation . It is expected that the ECB will leave rates unchanged , but the dynamics of gold will also depend on the value of the dollar relative to the single European currency.

Demand for physical gold has not grown much as traders are waiting for the determined price direction . Customers in Asia are hoping to wait for a lower price.

The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today rose to $ 1316.90 per ounce.