The euro exchange rate fell markedly against the U.S. dollar , though, and stepped back from session lows . Note that among the players on euro negative sentiment prevailed before the ECB meeting , scheduled for Thursday. Speculation pigeon rhetoric Mario Draghi continued to gain momentum after the release of the latest report on inflation in the euro zone , according to which consumer prices rose by 0.7 % y / y vs. 1.1 % previously , well below the target level of the ECB. This, together with the positioning will play against those who buy the euro. We add that the number of long positions on the euro reached a maximum level, which is not observed since May 2011 .
It should be noted that the pressure on the European currency also had a message saying that the European Commission reduced its economic growth forecast for the eurozone in 2014 and raised its estimate for unemployment for the same year, saying that growth will remain subdued , while the risks and uncertainties remains high . Commission reduced the outlook for euro area GDP in 2014 to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent, as previously assumed, and also raised its forecast for the unemployment rate to 12.2 percent from 12.1 percent. The Commission expects that in 2013 the economy will expand 0.4 percent in the unemployment rate of 12.2 percent.
Meanwhile, we add that the strengthening of the dollar against the euro also helped the positive U.S. data , which showed that in October, the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector , which is calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose , reaching at the same level of 55.4, compared the September reading at around 54.4 . According to expert estimates , the value of this index was down slightly to 54.2 . All major sub- indexes in September remained in expansion ( more than 50). The greatest influence on the growth of the sub- indices have employment and business activity. Reducing the sub- indices showed new orders and prices.
The pound rose sharply against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of strong data on service sector activity in Britain. Activity in the UK service sector expanded at the fastest pace in more than sixteen years , showed in October , a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS). On a seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 62.5 in October from 60.3 in September. October value represents the strongest growth in activity since May 1997 . The survey found that the volume of new orders showed the strongest growth rate since records began the survey in July 1996. Also during the month significantly increased employment. The report also noted that inflation accelerated on rising wages.
The composite index PMI, which measures business activity in the UK as a whole throughout the private sector , reached a historic high 61.5 in October , up from 60.2 in September.
Also, the growth of the pound has helped a message stating that the European Commission raised its outlook for the UK economy , as domestic demand and exports to help growth.
"Gross domestic product will grow by 1.3 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year. That is, the forecast has been increased compared to the previous one, which involved an increase of 0.6 percent and 1.7 percent respectively, " - said the commission.
Confederation of British Industry and the National Institute of Economic and Social Studies this week raised their forecasts after the economy grew by 0.8 percent in the third quarter, the highest rate in more than three years . According to the updated forecast CBI, the economy will grow by 1.4 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2014 , according to a quarterly report. In August, CBI had expected growth of 1.2 percent and 2.3 percent , respectively.
The yen declined significantly against the dollar, having lost all previously earned position. Note that the initial growth of the yen helped worsening economic outlook in the euro area. Last week, the euro zone released unexpectedly low inflation rates, which, coupled with high unemployment fueled speculation about a possible reduction in the refinancing rate of the ECB on Thursday . CPI inflation in the region has increased in September at 0.7% vs. 1.1 %. Rate b / d eurozone remains at a record high of 12.2%. Data on the Spanish labor market , released this morning showed that the unemployment rate rose by 87,028 in October. Pessimistic data led the ECB to lower the growth forecast for the euro area to 1.1 % compared with the May estimate.
However, surprisingly good U.S. data could change the course of trade , throwing the yen against the dollar to levels of the session. The report showed that in October ISM in the U.S. service sector rose to 55.4 vs. 54.0 and 54.4 in September , indicating that the acceleration of growth in the category.
European stocks fell from a five-year high as the European Commission cut its growth forecast for the euro area and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG retreated after reporting results.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent to 321.67 at 4:33 p.m. in London. The benchmark gauge has still soared 15 percent in 2013 as the Federal Reserve maintained stimulus measures and the European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record low. The ECB will make its next announcement on monetary policy on Nov. 7.
The executive arm of the European Union trimmed its forecast for euro-area growth next year as the economy struggles to gain momentum with the debt crisis dragging into a fifth year and unemployment at a record. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency bloc will rise by 1.1 percent in 2014, less than the 1.2 percent forecast in May.
The commission forecast that France’s budget deficit will be 3.7 percent of GDP in 2015, which would mean it misses a deadline to reduce the shortfall to 3 percent by then.
A U.S. government release on Thursday is forecast to show the world’s largest economy grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, compared with a 2.5 percent increase in the previous three months. Economists predict a report the next day will show U.S. payrolls climbed by 120,000 in October, according to a separate survey.
National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets, except Portugal and Ireland.
FTSE 100 6,746.84 -16.78 -0.25% CAC 40 4,253.34 -35.25 -0.82% DAX 9,009.11 -28.12 -0.31%
BMW slid 2.7 percent to 81.38 euros, its biggest drop since Aug. 27. The automaker reported a 3.7 percent decline in third-quarter earnings before interest and taxes as spending on expansion offset stronger demand for the 3-Series sedan.
RSA plunged 6.5 percent to 120.7 pence, the largest slide in eight months, after saying wind damage in Europe and adverse weather in Canada will push return on equity below 10 percent for the year. That compares with a previous target range in August of 10 percent to 12 percent.
Bouygues declined 2.7 percent to 28.35 euros, the largest retreat in two months. Orange said it has no plans to change its pricing structure.
Beiersdorf climbed 5.6 percent to 73.62 euros after saying sales will rise 6 percent to 7 percent this year. The Hamburg-based company had previously forecast revenue would increase 5 percent to 6 percent.
Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS), the U.K.’s largest clothing retailer, advanced 4.3 percent to 508 pence after reporting the smallest decline in general-merchandise sales in more than two years. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 1.3 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 28, M&S said. That beat the median estimate of 17 analysts for a 1.5 percent drop.
The price of oil fell moderately today , having fallen at the same time to the lowest level in more than four months on speculation that U.S. crude inventories increased last week , which could become the seventh consecutive weekly increase .
Experts expect that tomorrow's report from the Energy Information Administration show that U.S. crude inventories last week rose by 2.2 million barrels - up to 386.1 million barrels , while stocks of fuel fell by 400,000 barrels, while distillates - by 1.5 million barrels. Note that in the past months , oil production in the U.S. rose to a 24- year high , while the idle plants for maintenance, and that reduced the demand for crude oil.
"The dynamics of prices relatively restrained . Minimal movement in the market may be related to the desire of investors to wait until the release of weekly U.S. Energy Department report , which will give them information about the stocks in the country ," - said the head of the investment department of Phillip Futures Theo Sai Hwa .
In addition, many market participants continue to pay attention to the news from Libya, which in the coming days plans to restore the terminal Hariga oil exporter . Currently, the country is gradually restoring the volume of oil production and exports after the closure of facilities in connection with the armed conflict.
We also add that today, Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded forecast of oil production in the OPEC countries for the current year by 190 thousand barrels per day in connection with possible supply disruptions from Libya. The medium-term outlook for the bank's cost of Brent crude oil is left at $ 110 per barrel.
However, adding that a further drop in oil prices supported the European Commission forecasts that the growth of real GDP in the euro area in 2015 accelerated to 1.7 % from 1.1% in 2014. In 2013, the rate will be reduced by 0.4 %. At the same time, the regulator expects to reduce the level of public debt in the region in 2015 to 95.4% of the region's GDP from 95.9 % of GDP in 2014.
The cost of the December futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 93.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
December futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.39 to $ 105.77 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold prices fell today , losing all previously won positions , which was due to release a report on U.S. economic activity . Note that in October, the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector , which is calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose , reaching at the same level of 55.4, compared with the September reading at around 54.4 . According to expert estimates , the value of this index was down slightly to 54.2 . The data also show that the employment index increased by 3.5 to 56.2 % . Note that the index remains in positive territory for 15 consecutive months.
Growth in October was recorded in 10 sectors , namely, arts, entertainment and recreation , agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing , transportation and warehousing , construction, mining sector , utilities, health care and social assistance , accommodation and food services . Many respondents commented on the negative impact of the partial termination of the government in October.
Add that many investors are closely watching U.S. data in anticipation of clues about when the Fed will lower its program of quantitative easing, which has become one of the major factors to increase the price of gold during the financial crisis.
Also today it was announced that the demand for gold in India, which is the largest consumer of gold in the world, and failed to raise on a Tuesday. Indian premiums for gold halved in the last week , traders said , as demand for the metal fell after the festival season . Note that the premium in China, which is ready to take on the role of the largest consumer of gold in the world, slightly recovered .
In addition, the pressure on the price of gold futures rendered speculation that the European Central Bank may decide to have another reduction of key rates if inflation will remain " subdued ."
The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1309.30 per ounce.
U.S. stock-index futures declined as investors awaited a report on the services industry for clues on the economy’s strength.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 14,225.37 +23.80 +0.17%
Hang Seng 23,038.95 -150.67 -0.65%
Shanghai Composite 2,157.24 +7.61 +0.35%
FTSE 6,725.35 -38.27 -0.57%
CAC 4,239.13 -49.46 -1.15%
DAX 8,982.99 -54.24 -0.60%
Crude oil $94.05 -0.63%
Gold $1314.00 -0.05%
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3650, $1.3615/20, $1.3600, $1.3565/70, $1.3540/50, $1.3525
Bids $1.3470, $1.3450/40, $1.3420, $1.3385/80, $1.3350
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6160/65, $1.6140/50, $1.6120, $1.6100/05, $1.6065/70
Bids $1.5950, $1.5870, $1.5850/40
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9600, $0.9575/80, $0.9545/50, $0.9520
Bids $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9350
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8700, stg0.8650/55, stg0.8600/05, stg0.8575/85, stg0.8520/30, stg0.8500, stg0.8480
Bids stg0.8400, stg0.8370/65
EUR/JPY
Offers Y134.00, Y133.50, Y132.80
Bids Y132.00, Y131.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y99.20, Y99.00
Bids Y98.00, Y97.80, Y97.50
European stocks fell from a five-year high as the European Union cut its growth outlook and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG retreated after reporting results. U.S. index futures dropped, while Asian shares were little changed.
The EU cut its forecast for euro-area growth next year as the economy struggles to gain momentum with the debt crisis dragging into a fifth year and unemployment at a record. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency bloc will rise by 1.1 percent in 2014, less than the 1.2 percent forecast in May, the Brussels-based European Commission said today.
The commission forecast that France’s budget deficit will be 3.7 percent of GDP in 2015, which would mean it misses a deadline to reduce the shortfall to 3 percent by then.
BMW sank 4.3 percent to 80.05 euros, the biggest drop since June 20. The automaker reported a 3.7 percent decline in third-quarter earnings before interest and taxes as spending on expansion offset stronger demand for the 3-Series sedan.
Beiersdorf climbed 4.9 percent to 73.16 euros, the biggest gain since March, after saying sales will rise 6 percent to 7 percent this year. The Hamburg-based company had previously forecast revenue would increase 5 percent to 6 percent.
Marks & Spencer Group Plc, the U.K.’s largest clothing retailer, advanced 3.1 percent to 502 pence after reporting the smallest decline in general-merchandise sales in more than two years. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 1.3 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 28, M&S said. That beat the median estimate of 17 analysts for a 1.5 percent drop.
FTSE 100 6,730.09 -33.53 -0.50%
CAC 40 4,272.48 -16.11 -0.38%
DAX 9,009.48 -27.75 -0.31%
Industrial producer prices in the Eurozone decreased at a faster-than-expected pace n September, with prices falling in the major industrial sectors, latest data showed Tuesday.
The producer price index decreased 0.9 percent in September from the same month of last year, following a 0.8 percent fall in August, statistical office Eurostat said. Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent decline for September.
The decline of the headline index primarily reflected a 1.5 percent fall in intermediate goods prices. Prices of energy products slid 2.7 percent, while non-durable consumer goods prices and capital goods prices advanced 1.6 percent and 0.6 percent respectively.
Among member states, the largest decreases in the total index were observed in Cyprus, Bulgaria, the Netherlands and Lithuania. The highest increases were registered in Estonia , Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The producer price index edged up 0.1 percent compared to August, when they stayed unchanged. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent gain.
In the European Union (EU), output prices decreased at a faster annual rate of 0.5 percent in September than 0.4 percent a month earlier. Sequentially, prices moved up 0.1 percent in the EU, as they did in August, data showed.
British service sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than sixteen years in October, a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS) revealed Tuesday.
The headline seasonally adjusted business activity index rose to 62.5 in October from September's 60.3. The October reading represented the sharpest rise in activity since May 1997.
"This has largely been the result of rising levels of incoming new business placed with service providers as market sentiment has improved in line with a strengthened economic climate," Markit said.
The survey found that incoming new work rose at the sharpest rate recorded since the survey began in July 1996. Employment increased markedly during the month. The report also noted that cost inflation accelerated on the back of higher utility and wage bills.
The all-sector PMI, measuring business activity across the UK private sector economy, hit an all-time high of 61.5 in October, up from 60.2 in September.
Switzerland's consumer prices declined further in October, and the rate of fall exceeded economists' expectations, latest data showed Tuesday.
The consumer price index dropped 0.3 percent in October from the same month of last year, following a 0.1 percent decline in September, the Federal Statistical Office said. Economists had forecast a 0.1 percent for October.
Consumer prices declined a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent compared to September, contrary to expectations for a 0.1 percent increase. In September, prices had increased 0.3 percent month-on-month.
The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), measured under the EU methodology, stayed unchanged year-on-year in October, defying the forecast for a 0.2 percent gain.
Sequentially, the HICP edged down 0.1 percent. The index was expected to rise 0.1 percent month-on-month.
USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.25, Y97.75, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.60/65/70, Y99.00, Y99.10
EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3520, $1.3525, $1.3530, $1.3560, $1.3600
GBP/USD $1.5875, $1.5975, $1.6000, $1.6165, $1.6200
EUR/GBP stg0.8470, stg0.8475
EUR/CHF Chf1.2300
AUD/USD $0.9400, $0.9505, $0.9510, $0.9540, $0.9550, $0.9630
NZD/USD $0.8300, $0.8355
USD/CAD C$1.0395, C$1.0475, C$1.0500, C$1.0525
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as Hong Kong’s benchmark index dropped ahead of a meeting of China’s top party officials this weekend. HSBC Holdings Plc gained after Europe’s largest lender posted higher earnings.
Nikkei 225 14,225.37 +23.80 +0.17%
S&P/ASX 200 5,431.96 +41.43 +0.77%
Shanghai Composite 2,157.24 +7.61 +0.35%
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. paced declines among mainland lenders listed in Hong Kong.
Nissan Motor Co. sank 10 percent, the most since 2008, after the Japanese carmaker cut its profit forecast.
Kubota Corp. rose 7.9 percent in Tokyo as the industrial-machinery maker reported profit that topped estimates.
HSBC Holdings Plc added 1.7 percent in Hong Kong after third-quarter pretax profit increased 30 percent.
00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y October +0.7% +1.1% +0.8%
01:45 China HSBC Services PMI October 52.4 52.6
03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
07:45 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks
The euro declined versus the yen before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks today ahead of a policy meeting this week as traders weigh the prospects for monetary stimulus in the region. European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will release economic growth forecasts for the region in Brussels today. The ECB meets on Nov. 7, with 65 of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicting policy makers will hold the key rate at a record-low 0.5 percent. Bank of America Corp., UBS AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc forecast a cut.
The yen advanced versus its 16 major peers as regional equities erased gains, boosting haven demand.
The dollar fell for a second day against Japan’s currency before a report predicted to show an expansion in U.S. services slowed last month, weighing on expectations the Federal Reserve will move to reduce stimulus. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. non-manufacturing index probably dropped to a four-month low of 54 in October, from 54.4 the previous month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey before today’s report. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The Australian dollar dropped after the Reserve Bank said the currency is “uncomfortably high.” “The Australian dollar, while below its level earlier in the year, is still uncomfortably high,” Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement. “A lower level of the exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.”
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3495-25
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5960-85
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y98.25
The European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, with the release of the Spanish unemployment data for October. The PMI manufacturing data released Monday saw the employment index fall to the lowest levels since April. At 1000GMT, the EMU September PPI data will be published. PPI is seen up 0.2% on month, down 0.8% on year. Also due Tuesday are the EU's own "Autumn Economic Forecasts." The only UK data scheduled for release comes at 0928GMT, with the release of the October CIPS/Markit Services PMI numbers. However, the data is unlikely to impact on Thursday's BOE policy decision, with both rates, QE and forward guidance left unchanged.
GOLD 1,314.10 0.90 0.07%
OIL (WTI) 94.47 -0.14 -0.15%
Nikkei 225 Closed
S & P / ASX 200 5,390.53 -20,59 -0,38%
Shanghai Composite 2,149.13 -0.43 -0.02%
FTSE 100 6,763.62 +28.88 +0.43%
CAC 40 4,288.59 +15.40 +0.36%
DAX 9,037.23 +29.40 +0.33%
Dow +23.89 15,639.44 +0.15%
Nasdaq +14.55 3,936.59 +0.37%
S&P +6.31 1,767.95 +0.36%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3513 +0,20%
GBP/USD $1,5967 +0,27%
USD/CHF Chf0,9096 -0,29%
USD/JPY Y98,59 +0,15%
EUR/JPY Y133,24 +0,11%
GBP/JPY Y157,42 +0,20%
AUD/USD $0,9509 +0,76%
NZD/USD $0,8283 +0,22%
USD/CAD C$1,0422 +0,04%
00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y October +0.7% +1.1% +0.8%
01:45 China HSBC Services PMI October 52.4 52.6
03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
07:45 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index October +0.3% +0.4%
08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y October +6.2% +7.0%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) October -0.1% -0.1%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) October +0.3% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services October 60.3 60.4
10:00 Eurozone Economic Growth Forecasts from European Commission
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM September 0.0% +0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) September -0.8% -0.8%
13:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing October 54.4 54.2
21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories October +5.9
21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter III +0.4% 0.5%
21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter III 6.4% 6.2%
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes