The euro has decreased significantly against the dollar being under pressure amid increased expectations of a rate cut at the December meeting of the ECB. These conversations were triggered yesterday's inflation data , pointed to a sharp drop in the CPI. Furthermore , the rate b / d is at high level. In September, the euro zone CPI was 0.7 % , as reported by the agency Eurostat. Analysts had expected result of 1.1 %. Inflation continues to be under pressure from the problem of unemployment in the eurozone. Eurostat revised to increase the more optimistic figure of 12% ( at the level of September) to 12.2 %.
We add that the pair EUR / USD steady decline from the opening on Monday, and threatened to register today most massive drop in February on the week.
Recall that earlier euro strengthened mainly due to expectations that the Fed will postpone start rolling QE program at least until March due to weak employment growth and affected due to the first 17 years of the government shatdauna consumer confidence.
The dollar had evidence that the U.S. economic activity in the manufacturing sector in October rose for the fifth month in a row . Overall, the economy is growing throughout the 53rd consecutive month . The index of business activity in September rose 0.2 % to 56.2 . The index is growing every month since June, and the maximum value in October of 2013 . The new orders index in October rose by 0.1 % to 60.6 , the index of production fell by 1.8% to 60.8 %. Indices of new orders and production volume exceeds 60 for three consecutive months. The employment index fell by 2.2% to 53.2 . Comments respondents mostly positive about the business climate , though conflicting answers regarding the termination of the government and had the effect of potential default in October. Of the 18 industries 14 showed an increase in October.
The pound fell against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of weak data on Britain. The results of recent studies that have been presented the Royal Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics, showed that the increase in activity in the British manufacturing sector slowed slightly in October , exceeding while forecasts.
According to the report, the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell in October to the level of 56 points, compared with a revised downwards index for September at 56.3 (initially reported 56.7 points). Add that to the experts according to the average value of this indicator should have been 56.5 . Recall also that the value of the index is above 50 , however, indicates expansion of the sector .
Economists say that despite the downturn, the increase in activity remains solid . PMI is currently above the 50 level for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, the data showed that the new influx of orders increased in October , as domestic and foreign demand is gaining momentum . The number of new export orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2011 , said Markit.
In addition, it was reported that manufacturing employment rose for the sixth straight month in October. However , the pace of job growth has dropped from a 27-month peak, which was seen in September. We also add that the purchase price inflation continued to decline during the month of October , while wholesale prices rose , registering with the fourth monthly increase in a row.
The Swiss franc fell against the U.S. dollar after it became known that the growth in the industrial sector in Switzerland slowed in October , despite the forecasts of experts at a small improvement , while offsetting the rise in the previous month. It became known from the results of the study, which was published by Credit Suisse and procure.ch.
According to the report , the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell this month to the level of 54.2 points compared to 55.3 points in September. Add that many experts had expected an increase of this index to the level of 55.4 . Recall that the index value above 50 suggests growth of activity in the manufacturing sector , while a decline below indicates decline. Note also that before the October decline in activity has increased seven consecutive months.
European stocks advanced for a fourth week as companies from BP Plc to Alcatel-Lucent SA posted results that exceeded estimates, while cooling inflation fueled speculation the European Central Bank may ease monetary policy.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.4 percent to 321.50 this week, extending its rally so far this year to 15 percent. The gauge climbed to a five-year high of 322.37 on Oct. 31, capping its second consecutive month of gains.
Inflation in the region fell to 0.7 percent in October, the lowest annual rate since November 2009 and below the ECB’s target of 2 percent. Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, UBS, and Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit project the central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 percent after its policy meeting next week. Still, 65 of 68 economists predict no change from 0.5 percent, estimates compiled by Bloomberg News show.
National benchmark indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western European markets this week. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) advanced 0.2 percent, while Germany’s DAX added 0.3 percent and France’s CAC 40 gained less than 0.1 percent.
BP rallied 7.5 percent, its biggest weekly increase since December 2011, after raising its dividend by 5.6 percent to 9.5 cents a share as third-quarter profit slipped less than analysts had predicted. Europe’s third-largest oil company also said it will sell a further $10 billion of assets by the end of 2015 and give most of the proceeds to shareholders, favoring buybacks.
Alcatel-Lucent jumped 18 percent, rebounding from its worst week since April, after reporting a net loss of 200 million euros ($270 million), compared with 316 million euros a year earlier and analyst predictions of 274 million euros. Spending cuts helped the French network-equipment maker save 259 million euros so far this year, putting it on course to exceed its full-year target for as much as 300 million euros in savings.
Nokia Oyj, which in September agreed to sell its mobile-phone division to Microsoft Corp., increased 12 percent. The Finnish company predicted operating profit, excluding some costs, will be as high as 16 percent of sales at its network unit in the final quarter of 2013. That compares with 8.4 percent in the previous quarter.
BT Group Plc rose 5.4 percent after Britain’s biggest fixed-line phone company reported a smaller-than-projected decline in profit as more than 2 million customers subscribed to its new BT Sport channels.
West Texas
Intermediate fell below $95 a barrel for the first time since June on surging
Futures
headed for a fourth straight weekly decline, the longest stretch of decreases
in more than a year. A
WTI for
December delivery decreased $1.50, or 1.6 percent, to $94.88 a barrel at 11:20
a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $94.81, the lowest
intraday level since June 26. Prices are down 3 percent this week and fell 5.8
percent in October. The volume of all futures traded was about 22 percent below
the 100-day average.
Brent for
December settlement dropped $1.88, or 1.7 percent, to $106.96 a barrel on the
London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 18 percent higher than the
100-day average. The European benchmark crude traded at a $12.08 premium to
WTI, down from $12.46 yesterday.
The price of gold reached a two-week low after a sharp drop on Thursday caused by profit-taking at the end of the month , strong economic performance and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Business activity in the U.S. Midwest in October exceeded forecasts by increasing the volume of new orders to the maximum level in 2004 , while the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell last week.
The published data on Friday Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that despite the suspension of the government , manufacturing activity in the U.S. in October remained at a high level as last month. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in the U.S. October was 56.4 against 56.2 in September. The October index was the highest since April 2011 .
Investors fear that the improvement in the economy will force the Fed will soon begin to reduce the volume of buying bonds to $ 85 billion a month.
The outflow of funds from the world's largest secured gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust this year has exceeded $ 20 billion , and its reserves are close to a minimum of four years.
China in September, the fifth consecutive month, bought more than 100 tons of gold in Hong Kong due to the high demand for jewelry and bullion. This year, China could become the world's largest consumer of gold instead of India .
The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1305.60 per ounce.
USD/JPY Y96.50, Y97.00, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.10, Y98.20, Y98.30/35, Y98.50, Y99.00
EUR/JPY Y134.35
EUR/USD $1.3540, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3615, $1.3650, $1.3680, $1.3700
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6080, $1.6145, $1.6225
EUR/CHF Chf1.2305, Chf1.2320
AUD/USD $0.9350, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9460, $0.9550, $0.9600
AUD/JPY Y93.40
NZD/USD $0.8300
USD/CAD C$1.0400, C$1.0410, C$1.0470, C$1.0475, C$1.0485, C$1.0525
Data
00:30 Australia Producer Price Index q / q III m +0.1 % +0.3 % +1.3 %
00:30 Australia Producer Price Index y / y III quarter +1.2 % +1.9 %
1:00 China Manufacturing PMI 51.1 51.2 October 51.4
1:45 China Manufacturing PMI HSBC ( final data ) October 50.9 50.7 50.9
05:30 AU Commodity Index from the RBA , g / g III quarter -3.1 % -1.0 %
8:30 Switzerland The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in October 55.3 55.4 54.2
09:30 UK Manufacturing PMI 56.7 56.5 October 56.0
13:00 USA index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final ) October 51.1 51.1
13:10 Speech U.S. Federal Open Market Committee D. Bullard
The euro exchange rate against the dollar has decreased significantly , being under pressure amid increased expectations of a rate cut at the December meeting of the ECB. These conversations were triggered yesterday's inflation data , pointed to a sharp drop in the CPI. Furthermore , the rate b / d is at high level. In September, the euro zone CPI was 0.7 % , as reported by the agency Eurostat. Analysts had expected result of 1.1 %.
Inflation continues to be under pressure from the problem of unemployment in the eurozone. Eurostat revised to increase the more optimistic figure of 12% ( at the level of September) to 12.2 %.
We add that the pair EUR / USD steady decline from the opening on Monday, and threatened to register today most massive drop in February on the week.
Recall that earlier euro strengthened mainly due to expectations that the Fed will postpone start rolling QE program at least until March due to weak employment growth and affected due to the first 17 years of the government shatdauna consumer confidence.
The pound fell against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of weak data on Britain.
The results of recent studies that have been presented the Royal Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics, showed that the increase in activity in the British manufacturing sector slowed slightly in October , exceeding while forecasts.
According to the report, the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell in October to the level of 56 points, compared with a revised downwards index for September at 56.3 (initially reported 56.7 points). Add that to the experts according to the average value of this indicator should have been 56.5 . Recall also that the value of the index is above 50 , however, indicates expansion of the sector .
Economists say that despite the downturn, the increase in activity remains solid . PMI is currently above the 50 level for the seventh consecutive month.
Meanwhile, the data showed that the new influx of orders increased in October , as domestic and foreign demand is gaining momentum . The number of new export orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2011 , said Markit.
In addition, it was reported that manufacturing employment rose for the sixth straight month in October. However , the pace of job growth has dropped from a 27-month peak, which was seen in September. We also add that the purchase price inflation continued to decline during the month of October , while wholesale prices rose , registering with the fourth monthly increase in a row.
The Swiss franc fell against the U.S. dollar, after it became known that the growth in the industrial sector in Switzerland slowed in October , despite the forecasts of experts at a small improvement , while offsetting the rise in the previous month. This became of the results of the study, which was published by Credit Suisse and procure.ch.
According to the report , the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell this month to the level of 54.2 points compared to 55.3 points in September. Add that many experts had expected an increase of this index to the level of 55.4 . Recall that the index value above 50 suggests growth of activity in the manufacturing sector , while a decline below indicates decline. We also note that the October decline in activity has increased seven consecutive months.
These also states that the decline in activity in October was due to the fall of the sub -index of production and order backlog , which , despite the deterioration remained in the growth zone . Meanwhile, it was reported that output grew in October for the seventh consecutive month. Employment also continued to improve, after the relevant sub- index of the growth zone in September, which was recorded for the first time in 12 months.
After a bumpy recovery , to date, employment seems to have ceased to decline, thus fulfilling one of the conditions required for the acceleration of recovery, the study said.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3507
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5951
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.80, then rebounded to Y98.37
At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will release the ISM manufacturing index for October.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3690/700, $1.3660/65, $1.3650, $1.3615/20, $1.3600
Bids $1.3510/00, $1.3475/65, $1.3450, $1.3420
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6120, $1.6100/05, $1.6080, $1.6065/70, $1.6050
Bids $1.5980, $1.5965/60, $1.5950/40, $1.5870, $1.5850/40, $1.5820
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9600, $0.9575/80, $0.9545/50, $0.9500/10
Bids $0.9455/50, $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9350
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8575/85, stg0.8520/30, stg0.8500, stg0.8480
Bids stg0.8445/40, stg0.8425/15, stg0.8400, stg0.8370/65
EUR/JPY
Offers Y134.10/20, Y134.00, Y133.50, Y133.20/30
Bids Y132.50, Y132.00, Y131.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y99.00, Y98.80, Y98.50
Bids Y97.50, Y97.20, Y97.00
European stocks dropped, paring the fourth weekly gain for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as investors awaited data that may show U.S. manufacturing growth slowed. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares fell.
The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2 percent to 321.7 at 10:54 a.m. in London. The gauge has climbed 0.5 percent this week, yesterday closing at its highest level since May 2008, as the Federal Reserve refrained from paring stimulus measures and as companies from BNP Paribas SA to Volkswagen AG reported better-than-forecast profit.
A release may show the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 55 last month from September’s 56.2 that was the strongest since April 2011. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The report would follow data from China, where the official manufacturing gauge rose more than forecast to an 18-month high. A Chinese PMI from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics also topped projections.
Investors are watching data to gauge the health of the U.S. economy after the Federal Reserve this week said it needs to see more evidence of sustained improvement before slowing the pace of its monthly bond purchases.
RBS fell 5.4 percent to 347.7 pence. Britain’s biggest publicly owned lender said it will write down as much as 4.5 billion pounds ($7.2 billion) in the fourth quarter after transferring 38.3 billion pounds of its riskiest loans to an internal bad bank. RBS (RBS) also posted a net loss of 828 million pounds in the third quarter.
Renault dropped 5.6 percent to 60.88 euros, its biggest retreat since June 20. Nissan lowered its full-year profit forecast by 15 percent. Japan’s second-biggest carmaker expects to post net income of 355 billion yen ($3.6 billion) in the year ending March, compared with its previous estimate of 420 billion yen and the average projection of 440.3 billion yen.
Meggitt Plc tumbled 10 percent to 515.5 pence, its largest decline since April 2009. The world’s biggest provider of wheels and brakes for military aircraft cut its full-year sales forecast, citing short-term production problems at a unit. Meggitt predicted sales growth in low single digits, compared with a previous forecast for a mid-single-digit increase.
ASM International NV, which makes machines used to turn silicon wafers into chips, rose 3 percent to 25.05 euros after reporting third-quarter sales of 116.4 million euros ($158 million). The surpassed the 110.4 million euros forecast on average by analysts.
FTSE 100 6,725.48 -5.95 -0.09%
CAC 40 4,285.61 -14.28 -0.33%
DAX 9,021.75 -12.17 -0.13%
USD/JPY Y96.50, Y97.00, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.10, Y98.20, Y98.30/35, Y98.50, Y99.00
EUR/JPY Y134.35
EUR/USD $1.3540, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3615, $1.3650, $1.3680, $1.3700
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6080, $1.6145, $1.6225
EUR/CHF Chf1.2305, Chf1.2320
AUD/USD $0.9350, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9460, $0.9550, $0.9600
AUD/JPY Y93.40
NZD/USD $0.8300
USD/CAD C$1.0400, C$1.0410, C$1.0470, C$1.0475, C$1.0485, C$1.0525
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index paring its weekly advance, as speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus in coming months overshadowed improving China manufacturing data.
Nikkei 225 14,201.57 -126.37 -0.88%
S&P/ASX 200 5,411.12 -14.37 -0.26%
Shanghai Composite 2,149.56 +7.95 +0.37%
Sony Corp. slumped the most in five years in Tokyo after the television and digital camera maker unexpectedly lowered its full-year profit forecast by 40 percent.
Sydney Airport sank 3.6 percent after its largest shareholder Macquarie Group Ltd. announced plans to give some of its stake to its investors.
Panasonic Corp. surged 6.2 percent, a fifth day of gains, after doubling its full-year profit forecast.
00:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter III +0.1% +0.3% +1.3%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter III +1.2% +1.9%
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI October 51.1 51.2 51.4
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) October 50.9 50.7 50.9
05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y Quarter III -3.1% -1.0%
The euro declined to the lowest level in two weeks against the dollar and the yen as signs of economic weakness in the currency bloc fueled speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates.
The 17-nation currency extended its biggest drop in more than a year versus the greenback before data forecast to show manufacturing contracted in France. An index based on a survey of French purchasing managers in manufacturing fell to 49.4 in October, the lowest since June, according to a separate poll for the Nov. 4 data. That would confirm the initial reading released on Oct. 24. Reports yesterday showed the euro region’s inflation slowed and unemployment climbed to a record. The euro area’s annual consumer-price index declined to 0.7 percent last month, the least since November 2009, from 1.1 percent in September, the European Union’s statistics office said yesterday. Euro-area unemployment stood at a record 12.2 percent in September, separate data showed.
The Australian dollar pared declines after data showed Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months, boosting trade prospects. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.4 in October, the highest since April 2012 and up from 51.1 in September, National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing today. China is Australia’s biggest export market.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3540
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair fell to $ 1.6015
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.80
UK manufacturing PMI data due at 0928GMT and will provide the main domestic focus (f'cast 56.4 vs last 56.7). For the afternoon, US PMI and ISM data will provide interest. Fed Bullard speaks at 1310GMT.
GOLD 1,323.50 -25.80 -1.91%
OIL (WTI) 96.25 -0.52 -0.54%
Nikkei 225 14,327.94 -174,41 -1,20%
Hang Seng 23,206.37 -97,65 -0,42%
S & P / ASX 200 5,425.5 -5.36 -0.10%
Shanghai Composite -0,87 -18,85 2,141.61%
FTSE 100 6,731.43 -46.27 -0.68%
CAC 40 4,299.89 +25.78 +0.60%
DAX 9,033.92 +23.65 +0.26%
Dow 15,545.75 -73.01 -0.47%
Nasdaq 3,919.71 -10.91 -0.28%
S&P 500 1,756.54 -6.77 -0.38%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3588 -1,09%
GBP/USD $1,6042 +0,04%
USD/CHF Chf0,9064 +0,79%
USD/JPY Y98,37 -0,07%
EUR/JPY Y133,65 -1,18%
GBP/JPY Y157,78 -0,03%
AUD/USD $0,9457 -0,25%
NZD/USD $0,8255 -0,11%
USD/CAD C$1,0434 -0,40%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter III +0.1% +0.3% +1.3%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter III +1.2%
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI October 51.1 51.2 51.4
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) October 50.9 50.7 50.9
05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y Quarter III -3.1%
08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI October 55.3 55.4
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing October 56.7 56.5
13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) October 51.1 51.1
13:10 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing October 56.2 55.3