(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Gold $1,311.2 -21.80 -1.64%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $106.81 -0.11 -0.10%

Nikkei 14,475.3 +251.07 +1.77%

Hang Seng 21,846.45 +409.75 +1.91%    

Shanghai Composite 2,066.28 +18.66 +0.91%   

S&P 500 1,857.44 -9.08 -0.49%

NASDAQ 4,226.39 -50.40 -1.18%

Dow 16,276.69 -26.08 -0.16%

FTSE 6,520.39 -36.78 -0.56%

CAC 4,276.34 -58.94 -1.36%

DAX 9,188.77 -154.17 -1.65%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3838 +0,33%

GBP/USD $1,6495 +0,05%

USD/CHF Chf0,8807 -0,23%

USD/JPY Y102,22 -0,03%

EUR/JPY Y141,45 +0,32%

GBP/JPY Y168,60 +0,01%

AUD/USD $0,9125 +0,49%

NZD/USD $0,8545 +0,12%

02:00 China Leading Index February +1.2%         

04:45 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks                 

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6%         

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +9.4%         

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate March 111.3 110.9     

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment March 114.4 114.6     

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations March 108.3 107.7     

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m February -0.3% +0.5%     

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y February +2.8% +2.6%     

09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y February +2.8% +2.6%     

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) February -0.9% +0.4%     

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) February -3.1% -5.3%     

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) February +0.3% +0.2%     

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) February +1.2% +1.0%     

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals February 50.0 50.0     

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m February -0.6% +0.5%     

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y February +1.9% +1.7%     

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y February +1.6% +1.6%     

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. January 13.7 13.9     

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance March 37 30     

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m January +0.8% +0.7%     

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y January +7.7%         

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y January +13.4% +13.3%     

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index March -6 -1     

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence March 78.1 78.7     

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales February 468 447     

16:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks                 

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories March +5.9         

22:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks                 

23:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                 

The euro exchange rate against the dollar rose sharply , returning with all previously lost ground and setting a new high . Impact on the dynamics of the U.S. data , as well as statements by the Fed . As it became known , the index of business activity in the U.S. industry from Markit in March , according to preliminary data , down to 55.5 . Preliminary data include approximately 85% of the respondents' answers . The business activity index fell to 45 -month high , but growth continues. The growth rate was only slightly lower than the three-year high , which the index reached in February. Manufacturers say that the higher level of output due to an increase in new orders , and the desire to reduce the backlog . Companies began to overcome deceleration caused by weather conditions in the winter. The growth rate of export orders decreased but continues for the second month in a row.

Meanwhile , the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams said that the Fed last week did not make assumptions about what the Fed will start raising rates earlier than expected . Investors appreciated earlier comments from Fed Chairman Janet Iellen on Monday that the first rate hike could begin six months after the completion of the redemption of bonds as a "hard" . Williams said that such expectations were on the market, and he sees nothing that would indicate intention to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected . Williams called regarded as a "signal of tightening policy" simply a response to a comment recently yield stronger -than-expected unemployment data.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the decision agency Fitch, as well as U.S. data . Note that the rating agency Fitch announced its decision to leave Australia at the same rating at AAA with a stable outlook , as the country has managed to maintain stability to external shocks due to " the presence of a strong economic and institutional foundations , including the highly developed and flexible economy , as well as a reliable political rate and effective political and social institutions . " However, the agency noted factors , mainly related to the slowdown in China's economy that could potentially determine the downgrade in the future : deterioration in the trade balance, large-scale problems in the banking sector or unsuccessful rebalancing the economy.

European stocks fell, after posting their biggest weekly advance in more than a month, as world leaders meet to discuss tension over Ukraine, and manufacturing gauges for China, Germany and the U.S. slipped.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.1 percent to 324.38 at 4:12 p.m. in London. The benchmark gauge advanced 1.8 percent last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin said he won’t seek territory beyond Crimea.

“As investors are nervous amid the Crimea crisis and apparent problems in the Chinese economy, stronger numbers would have been important for a continued positive development of the stock markets,” said Martin Schlatter, a fund manager at Swiss Rock Asset Management in Zurich, which oversees about $1 billion. “A confrontation between the West and Russia is absolutely unwanted.”

Leaders of the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and others meet today as concern grows that Russia is massing soldiers on Ukraine’s border. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague wrote in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph that Russia’s troop buildup means the crisis may worsen, calling the situation the most serious risk to European security in the 21st century.

In China, a preliminary report showed manufacturing weakened for a fifth straight month in March. The Purchasing Manager’s Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to 48.1, compared with the 48.7 median estimate of analysts. The number compares with February’s final 48.5 figure. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.

Separate preliminary data showed that a gauge of manufacturing and services in the euro area declined to 53.2 in March, matching forecasts, from 53.3 the previous month. Manufacturing fell to 53.8 from 54.8 in Germany. In the U.S., it slipped to 55.5 from 57.1, compared with the drop to 56.5 that economists had forecast.

National benchmark indexes retreated in all 18 western-European markets today, except Iceland.

FTSE 100 6,520.39 -36.78 -0.56% CAC 40 4,276.34 -58.94 -1.36% DAX 9,188.77 -154.17 -1.65%

KPN (KPN) fell 4.3 percent to 2.55 euros. Citigroup lowered the Dutch telecommunications operator to neutral from buy, meaning it no longer recommends investors purchase the stock. The brokerage said the risk of a failure of the O2/E-Plus deal is rising, while adding that it will still probably close.

Stada Arzneimittel slumped 15 percent, the most since September 2011, to 29.40 euros. The maker of generic drugs said it no longer expects to achieve its forecast for 2014, citing the strong devaluation of the Russian ruble and the Ukrainian hryvnia amid the Crimean crisis. Russia accounted for 19 percent of the company’s sales in 2012, while Ukraine contributed another 1.7 percent.

Centrica Plc slid 1.9 percent to 331.5 pence, and SSE Plc dropped 2.3 percent to 1,475 pence. Industry regulator Ofgem said it will publish a report this month on the state of competition in the energy market. Its assessment may lead to a referral of Britain’s “Big Six” suppliers to the Competition Markets Authority and a possible breakup of their operations, the Sunday Times reported.

CEZ rallied 5.1 percent to 569 koruna, the most since November. The Czech government, which controls 70 percent of the company, will demand a dividend payout of 100 percent of CEZ’s 2013 net income, Hospodarske Noviny reported, citing Finance Minister Andrej Babis. That’s up from the previous policy of 50 percent to 60 percent net income payout.

Deutsche Post AG climbed 1.7 percent to 26.09 euros. Welt am Sonntag reported that Europe’s largest postal company is seeking to lift its mail earnings by 60 percent and generate about 1.6 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of operating profit from its mail unit, the newspaper said, citing supervisory board members it didn’t specify.

Oil prices fell slightly today , which was associated with the release of weak Chinese data indicating that the decline in demand in the world's largest oil consumer . Meanwhile, add that support prices has the possibility of supply disruptions due to the oil crisis in the Ukraine and the turmoil in Libya.

According to preliminary estimates HSBC, the index of business activity in the industry in China in March fell to eight-month low , amounting to 48.1 points versus 48.5 points in February. Analysts , on the contrary , expect growth to 48.7 points. A reading above 50 indicates growth in economic activity, lower - its decline.

" Expectations about China remain low. Statistics in February was weak and the market regains deteriorating outlook for growth " - believes the chief strategist at CMC Markets Michael McCarthy.

Not pleased investors and statistics from the eurozone . Composite index of business activity in industry and services (PMI) in the region, according to preliminary estimates , in March fell to 53.2 points from 53.3 points in February . Analysts believed that the rate will remain at the level of February.

At the same time, investors continue to monitor developments in Ukraine and Libya, as well as their possible impact on the volume of shipments of "black gold " in Europe. In Libya, the government is still trying to establish control over numerous fighters that have captured several port facilities and oil and gas sector .

Meanwhile , we add that the seasonal decline in consumption caused nearly 5 percent decline Brent price since early March , when quotes briefly rose to a three-month high above $ 112. Experts note that the offer on the market is now clearly exceeds demand. Production in the U.S. continues to grow and is at thirty- highs and crude oil reserves , according to the Energy Information Agency report , published in the previous week increased by 5.9 million barrels to 379 million at the same time in power load warehouses gasoline fuel loading refineries the country has fallen to 85.6 percent.

May futures for U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 99.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

May futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.30 to $ 106.83 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) released its business survey on Tuesday. The business climate rose to -6.3 in March from -8.3 in February, exceeding expectations for an increase to -7.5.

The increase was driven by better sentiment in all sectors.

Gold prices fell markedly today , reaching with one-month low , which was associated with increased expectations about rising interest rates in the U.S. in early 2015 .

Recall that at the end of last week, the precious metal fell by 3.5 per cent , showing the maximum decline since November after the statements of the U.S. Federal Reserve about the possible failure of the program to stimulate the economy this year and an increase in interest rates since 2015 .

" The mood in the market is probably a little ahead of the event - said Ted Harper of Frost Investment Advisors LLC. Invest in gold in the next 6-12 months is likely to be problematic. Raising rates could be somewhat sharper and faster , which adversely affects the value of the precious metals . "

The dynamics also affect data that showed that manufacturing activity in China deteriorated again in March. The preliminary value of China's manufacturing index from HSBC fell to an eight-month low of 48.1 in March, with a final value of 48.5 in February. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.7 .

Meanwhile , the research group Markit said that preliminary index of manufacturing activity in Germany retreated to four-month low in March - to 53.8 from 54.8 in February , compared with expectations falling to 54.7 . Nevertheless , a preliminary value of the manufacturing index rose to 33 in France -month high of 51.9 in March from 49.7 in February , compared with expectations of an increase to 49.8 .

99.99 fine gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange traded cheaper spot market and futures in the United States . Surcharge for gold bars in Hong Kong has not changed from last week - $ 1 per ounce to the spot price in London

Stocks of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund secured SPDR Gold Trust rose on Friday by 0.52 percent to 816.97 tons.

The cost of the April gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1312.60 per ounce.

USD/JPY Y100.35, Y100.65/75, Y101.25, Y101.50, Y101.75, Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.10, Y103.20, Y103.25

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3900

AUD/USD $0.8985, $0.9100

EUR/JPY Y138.00

USD/CAD Cad1.1085, Cad1.1120

GBP/USD $1.6800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

AUD/JPY Y93.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF Chf0.8750, Chf0.8800

U.S. stock-index futures advanced  as optimism about the strength of the world’s largest economy overshadowed concern the crisis in Ukraine may escalate.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) rose more than 1% on a report that the company has held talks with Comcast about streaming live and on-demand television.

Global markets:

Crude oil $100.15 (+0.69%)

Gold $1315.50 (-1.53%).

07:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 49.7 49.8 51.9

07:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) March 47.2 47.9 51.4

08:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 54.8 54.7 53.8

08:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) March 55.9 55.9 54.0

08:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 53.2 53.2 53.0

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) March 52.6 52.6 52.4

11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report March

The euro rose against the dollar on strong data on private sector activity in France and then fell sharply to nedotyanuvshih forecasts to data on business activity in the euro zone and Germany.

French private sector returned to growth in March for the first time since last October , revealed on Monday showed preliminary surveys conducted Markit Economics. Composite activity index rose to 51.6 from 47.9 in February. Score above 50 indicates expansion , and the last reading indicates the fastest growth in 31 months . Expansion was broad-based and in the service sector and in manufacturing. The index of activity in services rose to 51.4 , a 26- month high , from 47.2 in February. Index , as expected , had to grow to 47.9 . In addition, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector has improved more than expected to 51.9 , a 33- month high , from 49.7 in the previous month . The index is projected to grow to was 49.8 .

Private sector growth slowed in Germany in March from 33 -month high , but growth remained markedly high on Monday showed preliminary data from surveys conducted in the Markit Economics. Composite activity index fell to 55.0 from February's 33 -month high of 56.4 . Weakening growth in business activity was broad-based , while both indices - for producers and service providers showed weaker growth than seen in February. Preliminary index of service sector activity fell more than expected to 54.0 from 55.9 in February. Predicted that the index would remain at 55.9 . Furthermore , preliminary manufacturing PMI 53.8 compared to 54.8 in February and below the expected reading of 54.7 .

Eurozone economy expanded ninth consecutive month in March , but the growth rate slowed slightly , data showed on Monday, Markit Economics . Consolidated activity index was 53.2 in March. Result was slightly lower than achieved in February of this year a 32- month high of 53.3 and above the expected level of 53.1 . The index remains above the neutral mark of 50, which indicates an increase in private sector activity . Eurozone economy in March continues to be in the strongest period of growth since the first half of 2011, said Markit. Preliminary PMI in service sector fell to 52.4 from 52.6 in February , while he , according to expectations , had to remain at the level of 52.6 . In addition, the manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 from 53.2 in February. It was expected that the index will also remain unchanged at the February level .

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar after ratings agency Fitch announced its decision to leave Australia at the same rating at AAA with a stable outlook , as the country has managed to maintain stability to external shocks due to " the presence of a strong economic and institutional foundations, including the highly advanced and flexible economy, and reliable policies and effective political and social institutions . "

However, the agency noted factors , mainly related to the slowdown in China's economy that could potentially determine the downgrade in the future : deterioration in the trade balance, large-scale problems in the banking sector or unsuccessful rebalancing the economy.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3826 , but then fell to $ 1.3759

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6510 , but then fell to $ 1.6464

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.65 and stepped

At 13:45 GMT the United States will index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in March.

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Bank of America (BAC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities

Other:

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3930, $1.3890-910, $1.3870, $1.3845/50, $1.3830, $1.3800/10

Bids $1.3755-30, $1.3725/20, $1.3710/00, $1.3694

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6600, $1.6580/85

Bids $1.6455/50, $1.6410/00, $1.6385/80, $1.6350

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9200, $0.9150, $0.9120

Bids  $0.9080, $0.9020/10, $0.9000

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.50, Y142.00, Y141.45/50

Bids Y140.50/40, Y140.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.80

Bids Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.25/20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8467, stg0.8450, stg0.8435/40, stg0.8420/25, stg0.8400/10

Bids  stg0.8320/15, stg0.8280/75

European stocks retreated, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly advance in more than a month, as world leaders gather in The Hague to discuss tension over Ukraine and a manufacturing gauge for China and Germany slipped. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

Leaders of the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and others meet today as concern grows that Russia is massing soldiers on Ukraine’s border. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague wrote in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph that Russia’s troop buildup means the crisis may worsen, calling the situation the most serious risk to European security in the 21st century.

In China, a preliminary report showed manufacturing weakened for a fifth straight month in March. The Purchasing Manager’s Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to 48.1, compared with the 48.7 median estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The number compares with February’s final 48.5 figure. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.

Separate preliminary data showed that a gauge of manufacturing in the euro area declined to 53.2 in March, in line with forecasts, from 53.3 the previous month. It fell to 53.8 from 54.8 in Germany. In the U.S., the manufacturing gauge probably slipped to 56.5 from 57.1, the estimates show.

KPN fell 2.4 percent to 2.60 euros. Citigroup lowered the Dutch telecommunications operator to neutral from buy, meaning it no longer recommends investors purchase the stock. The brokerage said the risk of a failure of the O2/E-Plus deal is rising, while adding that it will probably close.

Centrica slid 1.2 percent to 334 pence, and SSE Plc dropped 1.5 percent to 1,487 pence. The Sunday Times reported that the U.K.’s six biggest utilities may be broken up this week when energy regulator Ofgem calls in the competition watchdog. The newspaper cited a chief executive officer it didn’t name.

Nokia Oyj lost 1.2 percent to 5.21 euros. The company, which is working to complete the sale of its mobile-phone division to Microsoft Corp., said the 5.44 billion euro ($7.5 billion) transaction will be delayed until April as Asian regulators review it. The companies had previously predicted that the sale would be completed by the end of March.

CEZ rallied 3.3 percent to 559.40 koruna. The Czech government, which controls 70 percent of the company, will demand a dividend payout of 100 percent of CEZ’s 2013 net income, Hospodarske Noviny reported, citing Finance Minister Andrej Babis. That’s up from the previous policy of 50 percent to 60 percent net income payout.

FTSE 100 6,527.02 -30.15 -0.46%

CAC 40 4,303.19 -32.09 -0.74%

DAX 9,281.85 -61.09 -0.65%

USD/JPY Y100.35, Y100.65/75, Y101.25, Y101.50, Y101.75, Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.10, Y103.20, Y103.25

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3900

AUD/USD $0.8985, $0.9100

EUR/JPY Y138.00

USD/CAD Cad1.1085, Cad1.1120

GBP/USD $1.6800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

AUD/JPY Y93.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF Chf0.8750, Chf0.8800

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index (HSI) paring last week’s losses, as Japanese markets surged on reopening after a holiday and as investors were unfazed by a drop in Chinese manufacturing activity.

Nikkei 225 14,475.3 +251.07 +1.77%

S&P/ASX 200 5,346.89 +8.81 +0.17%

Shanghai Composite 2,066.28 +18.66 +0.91%

Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. surged 6.6 percent in Hong Kong after profit beat estimates and the shares were upgraded by Credit Suisse Group AG.

Macquarie Group Ltd. rose 2.9 percent after Australia’s biggest investment bank said it expects full-year earnings will jump.

Yamato Holdings Co., a parcel delivery company, surged 3.5 percent in Tokyo on a report it will tie up with China Post Group.

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 48.5 48.7 48.1

The yen slid against the euro and the dollar before Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata speaks today amid bets the BOJ will boost stimulus to ease the impact of a planned tax increase due to take effect next week. In Japan, Iwata will speak about the BOJ’s monetary policy at a two-hour forum that starts at 2 p.m. Tokyo time today. The central bank will adjust monetary policy if its target of 2 percent inflation is deemed impossible to achieve, he told lawmakers on March 6. Thirty-five percent of 34 economists polled expect the BOJ to expand stimulus as early as next month when the government increases the sales tax to 8 percent from 5 percent, according to the most recent Bloomberg News survey conducted Feb. 26 to March 4.

Australia’s currency weakened against most of its 16 major peers after China’s factory data fell short of economist estimates. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for China’s manufacturing dropped to 48.1 in March, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics Ltd. said today. The preliminary reading compares with the 48.7 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News and the final number of 48.5 in February. Numbers below 50 signal contraction.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3785-00

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6475-95

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.60

There is a fairly quiet start to the data calendar this week, although the markets will get an early look at how the Crimea crisis has impacted on eurozone sentiment when flash PMI indicators are released. The European calendar gets underway at 0758GMT, when the French March flash manufacturing and services PMIs are set to cross the wires. The numbers will reflect sentiment on the Ukraine, but not the overnight local election results. Analysts are looking for a slight dip in the manufacturing number and a modest pick up in services. The German flash data will be released at 0828GMT, with the amalgamated eurozone numbers published at 0858GMT. German manufacturing is seen a touch lower at 54.5, with services at 55.5, down from 55.9. At 1000GMT, ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen is set to brief the press on monetary policy and the global economy, in Helsinki. US President Barack Obama attends a nuclear security summit in The Netherlands. Obama and other G7 leaders will also meet to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The Belgian National Bank releases their March business survey at 1400GMT. The index is seen slightly lower, with forecasts for a reading of -5, down from -4 in February.