(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0697 +0,14%

GBP/USD $1,2538 +0,23%

USD/CHF Chf0,9945 -0,31%

USD/JPY Y111,92 -0,40%

EUR/JPY Y119,74 -0,25%

GBP/JPY Y140,33 -0,16%

AUD/USD $0,7643 +0,22%

NZD/USD $0,7263 -0,50%

USD/CAD C$1,3142 -0,31%

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December 6.1%

00:10 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence January 6

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y January 4.4%

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) January 3.5% 3.6%

07:00 Germany Current Account December 24.6

07:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln December 22.6

09:00 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM December 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2064 2060

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 246 250

15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories December 1% 1%

16:35 Canada BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks

18:10 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

"With major currencies approaching key technical levels, the markets are closely following the movements in the broad USD index.

The first chart shows the 20d rolling correlation of the BDXY to the major G10 currencies. It shows that the moves in the BDXY and the broader G10 are closely synchronized. This correlation has averaged around 65% over the past few years so the lift in the correlation indicates the importance of the broader USD move at the moment.

We think chatter from the Trump administration regarding its key policy objectives over the first 100 days will remain the key driver. The second week in office showed little appetite to discuss broader tax reform. Indeed, policy makers spent more time discussing 'bad' trade deals and the value of international exchange rates than fiscal stimulus or tax reform. The scope for a BAT is still unknown with the Senate mulling the idea of proposing its own tax reform bill. Recall, the House's budget plan relies on the tax to fund the personal and corporate tax cuts so it is key to broader reform.

These complications and lack of consensus over them keep us cautious on the USD in the near-term".

Copyright © 2017 TD Securities, eFXnews™

British Prime Minister Theresa May said that she believes that within two years the UK will be able to agree on the withdrawal from the European Union and enter into a trade agreement which will enable it to remain a strategic partner of the EU.

EUR/USD 1.0570-1.0575 (EUR 230 M) 1.0600 (EUR 600 M) 1.0650 (EUR 1,364 M) 1.0700-1.0710 (EUR 251 M) 1.0740-1.0755 (EUR 509 M) 1.0775-1.0780 (EUR 314 M) 1.0840-1.0850 (EUR 403 M)

GBP/USD 1.2550 (GBP 645 M)

USD/JPY 111.00 (USD 525 M) 111.50-111.60 (USD 195 M) 112.95-113.00 (USD 533 M) 113.15-113.30 (USD 241 M) 113.35-113.50 (USD 735 M)

AUD/USD 0.7400 (AUD 311 M) 0.7425 (AUD 644 M) 0.7485-0.7500 (AUD 280 M) 0.7585-0.7600 (AUD 362 M) 0.7650 (AUD 754 M) 0.7693-0.7710 (AUD 260 M)

USD/CAD 1.3015-1.3030 (USD 260 M) 1.3150-1.3155 (USD 202 M) 1.3200-1.3203 (USD 508 M) 1.3400 (USD 1,000 M)

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 199,834 units in January compared to 197,881 in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"New home construction started off strong in 2017, both in terms of single-detached homes and multi-unit residential," said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. "While Ontario starts continue to drive the national trend upwards, construction has slowed in BC since last July when it reached a near record high. This slowdown can be partly attributed to builders focusing on projects still underway."

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0680-85 1.0700-05 1.0730 1.0750 1.0780-85 1.0800

Bids 1.0625-30 1.0600 1.0580 1.0550 1.0520 1.0500

GBP/USD

Offers 1.2520-25 1.2550-55 1.2580 1.2600 1.2630 1.2650 1.2685 1.2700

Bids 1.2475-80 1.2450 1.2430 1.2400 1.2380 1.2345-50 1.2320 1.2300

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.8550 0.8585 0.8600 0.8630-35 0.8650

Bids 0.8500 0.8485 0.8465 0.8450 0.8430 0.8400

EUR/JPY

Offers 119.80 120.00 120.20-25 120.50 120.80 121.00

Bids 119.30 119.00 118.60 118.30 118.00

USD/JPY

Offers 112.50-55 112.85 113.00 113.20 113.50

Bids 112.00 111.80 111.65 111.50 111.30 111.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7650 0.7685 0.7700 0.7730 0.7750

Bids 0.7620 0.7600 0.7580 0.7550 0.7520 0.7500

"There does not appear to be much of a driver behind the move higher in USD/CAD beyond a generally more negative risk backdrop and a 1.4% decline in oil prices on Monday.

CAD's cross asset correlations have been very weak lately: 30-day rolling correlation between CAD and oil is close to zero, while USD/CAD continues to trade below the levels suggested by US-Canada 2Y rate differentials.Positioning is also close to neutral according to both IMM CFTC data and our in-house positioning indicator, which suggests low levels of investor participation.

This week is busy for Canadian data starting with Wednesday's international trade, building permits and Ivey PMI, while January employment report will also be release on Friday. CAD is the best performing G10 currency (along with SEK) since President Trump's election, which we find puzzling.

In our view USD/CAD should rise to 1.40 by Q3 as US-Canada rate differentials continue to widen (we expect the BoC to remain on hold this year). Furthermore, CAD is now pricing in little risk of US protectionism, which appears overly optimistic".

Copyright © 2017 Credit Agricole CIB, eFXnews™

• Consumer spending growth had remained resilient, but was expected to ease during the year as prices rose. Investment intentions had edged higher and pointed to small increases in spending during 2017. Export volumes growth had risen due to the fall in sterling and stronger world growth.

• Hiring plans had edged up, but pointed to little change in staffing overall in the next six months. A survey indicated a modest rise in total labour cost growth in the year ahead (see box on page 2). That was partly due to difficulties in hiring and holding on to staff and costs from the forthcoming apprenticeship levy.

• Price pressures had continued to build through supply chains following sterling's fall. So far, the main effect on consumer prices had been higher food and fuel prices. But a wider range of goods prices were expected to be affected over the coming year, causing inflation to rise further.

EUR/USD: 1.0600-05 (EUR 693m) 1.0650 (955m) 1.0700 (887m) 1.0780 (1.33bln) 1.0950 (880m)

USD/JPY: 112.00 (USD 607m) 112.50 (350m) 114.00 (670m) 115.00 (465m)

GBP/USD: 1.2565-70 (GBP 437m) 1.2600 (469m)

AUD/USD: 0.7400 (AUD 571m)

USD/CAD 1.2975 (USD 485m)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

"On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to:

• keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25 per cent.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF remains unchanged at 5.75 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 per cent.

The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5 per cent by Q4 of 2016-17 and the medium-term target of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth. The main considerations underlying the decision are set out in the statement below".

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0793 (3163)

$1.0756 (2486)

$1.0734 (2202)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0664

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0615 (3420)

$1.0586 (3532)

$1.0552 (4616)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 68949 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4603);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 80496 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (5055);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 7

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2704 (2997)

$1.2706 (2859)

$1.2610 (2120)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2504

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2391 (1978)

$1.2294 (3507)

$1.2196 (1559)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 33220 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3646);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 37070 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2300 (3507);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears to be preparing pro-active proposals for President Trump to boost US growth and employment. If the Trump administration delivers on its promised aggressive fiscal policy, we can expect the current account deficit to widen (reflecting expanded domestic demand) and the dollar to strengthen owing to rising interest rates. If Japan's proposals prove effective, we think they would be certain to at least reinforce this change. While President Trump will likely welcome Japan's proposals, he will very likely hold dissatisfaction over the trade deficit against Japan and the weak yen.

...We calculate that after correcting at the low 110 level recently, the dollar/yen cycle will move toward 120-125 as fiscal policy accelerates US growth to 3-4% from 2017 into 2818 and the Fed hikes policy rate repeatedly.

However, a level above 120 would be politically sensitive, and we cannot exclude the possibility that the Japanese authorities may start talking about self-restraint regarding yen depreciation before the currency reaches 120. Coming dollar/yen appreciation will unlikely be unidirectional.

We recommend building long positions by buying on decline strategically at around 110 and tactically at over-115 level".

Copyright © 2017 DB, eFXnews™

• At 10:30 GMT Germany will hold an auction of 10-year bonds

• At 13:00 GMT the Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability John Cunliffe deliver a speech

• At 18:01 GMT the United States will hold an auction of 10-year bonds

• At 20:00 GMT the RBNZ decision on the basic interest rate

According to the data released today, the current account surplus of Japan's balance of payments in December totaled 1.112 trl yen, while analysts had expected growth to 1.302 trl yen. It is + 18.3% higher than the same period a year earlier. The recent figure was the highest since 2007.

• net sales of foreign bonds by Japanese investors in January amounted to 1.621 trillion yen

• net acquisitions of foreign stocks by Japanese investors in January amounted to 519.5 billion yen

• net purchases of Japanese bonds by foreign investors in January amounted to 1.684 trillion yen

• net sales of Japanese equities by foreign investors in January amounted to 119.2 billion yen

Overall performance of the Japanese banking system remains stymied despite sound domestic asset quality and credit costs, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch's Special Report on the Japanese 'mega' banks, published today, summarises the challenges of Abenomics and Japanese mega banks' multiple headwinds under the current operating environment.

Fitch sees the Japanese government's policy launched in 2012 as at a crossroads, which has triggered the authorities' introduction of unconventional policies - Qualitative-Quantitative Easing (QQE) and Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP).

.