(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0738 -1,01%

GBP/USD $1,2489 -0,86%

USD/CHF Chf0,9979 +0,99%

USD/JPY Y108,41 +1,56%

EUR/JPY Y116,39 +0,55%

GBP/JPY Y135,39 +0,72%

AUD/USD $0,7551 +0,11%

NZD/USD $0,7115 -0,10%

USD/CAD C$1,3555 +0,07%

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter III 0.4% 0.3%

07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter III 3.1% 1.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) October 0.2% 0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) October 1.2% 1.7%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) October 0.0% 2.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) October 7.2% 9.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m October 0.2% 0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y October 2% 2.2%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m October 0.2% 0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y October 1% 1.1%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y October 1.5%

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment November 12.3

10:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted September 18.4

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Revised) Quarter III 0.3% 0.3%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Revised) Quarter III 1.6% 1.6%

10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment November 6.2 8.9

13:30 U.S. Import Price Index October 0.1% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. Retail sales October 0.6% 0.5%

13:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY October 2.7%

13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto October 0.5% 0.5%

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index November -6.8 -2

15:00 U.S. Business inventories September 0.2% 0.2%

Expect "buy the rumors, sell the facts" for USD on a Dec hike. Currently the EUR / USD traded at $ 1.0715

"While little is known about scope of Trumps future policies yet, the direction is known. Markets diverged - but not permanently. Trump is NOT Reagan, and Yellen is NOT Volcker, hence the implications for the USD and rates are different going forward...

Trump managed to cause significant divergences in Markets last week: despite the base commodity prices, inflation breakevens, equity prices shooting up, the USD outperformed broadly. Will Trump make the USD great again?

While everyone focused on inflation expectations rising, the main cause of the USD strength was the rise in the USD real rates. The Market went from expecting just one Fed hike within a year to almost two hikes. The longer maturity Treasury real yields rose, e.g. the 10Y real yield came up 16bps in just a week! Hence, the broad USD strength.

But is there a justification for higher USD real yields? So far, the impression from the media has been that Trump will be another Republican Reagan who will produce an "economic miracle" by introducing supply side policies, and he will replace Yellen with Taylor or another central banker who will hike rates...maybe like Volcker did in 80s? A big myth hanging around is that Republicans in general are better for the USD ("strong USD is in the US best interests"). Well, they are not.

If there is one factor justifying higher real yields with "stronger USD and higher equity prices" is NOT which party holds presidency, but the rising US productivity. Have you seen the US productivity lately? Decade lows, and the recent capital investment patterns offer no hope for major improvement in years ahead. By contrast, during the Reagan years, and in the run-up to the dot-com bubble burst, where the US economy looked like a miracle, we indeed saw the USD stronger with rising equity prices, so a rise in real USD yields was justified. Is there a reason to believe Trump will achieve the same productivity burst again? Meh.

While little is known about exact polices, we may at least disentangle the policy shifts with Trump. Sketch a simple supply and demand framework. Depict the demand curve shifting to the right - as a realization of Trump's proposal of unfunded fiscal spending. Now, the supply side curve should shift to the right due to the proposed deregulation of financial sector, tax cuts. More growth! Not so fast.

The key difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan was pro-free trade and immigration. So what Trump may achieve domestically on the supply side, he may well kill with the foreign policy - anti-trade, anti-immigration measures. And given the power and realistic chances Trump has over changing the domestic supply factors quickly (killing Obamacare, Dodd-Frank…) over foreign (dismantling trade deals, imposing barriers), it does seem that the supply curve may eventually shift to the left, at least initially - i.e., less real growth, and potentially more inflation.

Will the fiscal extravagance cause the US growth miracle? Doubtful. What we may end up having with Trump is a flash-in-the-pan fiscal easing binge. But soon it will hit the wall, as will be met by circumstances, again, totally different than those of the starting point for Reagan: a larger twin deficit (need FOREIGN funding, including China), and the US public debt/GDP over three times larger. The US already got its sovereign downgrade back in 2011. Not sure Trump sees it as a way to make America great again.

Fed response? Yellen speaks on Capitol Hill this Thursday. For now, it seems Yellen will serve the full term until February 2018. Yellen is not Volcker, and it's not the roaring 80s in terms of growth and inflation. There is thus no reason for Fed to become more hawkish now. In fact, quite the opposite - domestic economic uncertainty largest since the US downgrade, and the monetary conditions have tightened after the US election, with the stronger USD and higher rates. So, if anything, more of the same in Markets will be met by Fed playing down, not up, expectations for tightening. This should be a natural killer of the market divergences we saw last week".

Copyright © 2016 Nordea, eFXnews™

EURUSD 1.0800 (EUR 985m) 1.0900 (544m) 1.0925 (297m) 1.0945-50 (799m) 1.1000 (1.2bn) 1.1020 (1.03bn) 1.1025 (429m) 1.1045-50 (574m) 1.1075 (477m)1.1200 (535m) 1.1230 (572m) 1.1250 (1.62bn)

USDJPY 103.00 (1.11bn) 104.10 (360m) 104.10-20 (840m) 105.00 (1.03bn) 106.00 (560m) 106.50 (646m)

GBPUSD 1.2500 (GBP 216m) 1.2560 (303m) 1.2625 (356m)

USDCHF 0.9600 (USD 286m)

AUDUSD 0.7400 (500m) 0.7475 (218m) 0.7600 (308m) 0.7700 (352m)

USDCAD 1.3200 (540m) 1.3350 (239m) 1.3400 (220m) 1.3600 (431m) 1.3800 (600m)

NZDUSD 0.7200 (NZD 300m) 0.7300 (400m)

EURJPY 116.25 (EUR 279m)

AUDJPY 79.50 (AUD 260m)

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

10:15 Switzerland manufacturers and import price index y / y in October -0.1% -0.2%

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production m / m in September to 1.8% -1.0% -0.8%

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production y / y in September 2.2% 1.0% 1.2%

The pound retreated from session low against the US dollar, but still shows a decline. In the absence of new catalysts trading dynamics was dictate by risk appetite and sentiment. Later today, Theresa May will give a speach in which it must discuss the issue of trade relations between the United States and Britain. Later this week, investors will pay attention to the October inflation data from UK. Consumer prices in September grew at the fastest pace in almost two years, and most experts expect further acceleration of inflation due to the weakening of the pound after Brexit. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to 1.1% in Octobe vs 1% in September. In addition, markets will wait for the October data for the UK labor market, which in combination with data on retail sales is likely to move the pound significantly. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate remained at around 4.9%, while average earnings growth accelerated to 2.4% from 2.3%.

The dollar rose against the yen significantly by updating 7 of June high. Many experts believe that if the situation remains favorable in the markets it is unlikely that anything will prevent the Fed to raise rates in December. According to the futures market, now the likelihood of tighter monetary policy in December is 81.1% against 71.5% on Friday.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.0725, but then recovered to $ 1.0785

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.2460 and then retreated to $ 1.2535

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair rose to Y108.14

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0780 1.0800 1.0825-30 1.0850 1.0865 1.0900 1.0925-30 1.0950 1.0980-851.1000

Bids 1.0750 1.0720 1.0700 1.0680 1.0650 1.0630 1.0600

GBP/USD

Offers 1.2500 1.2530 1.2550 1.2580-85 1.2600 1.2620 1.2650 1.2685 1.2700

Bids 1.2450 1.2420 1.2400 1.2375-80 1 .2350 1.2330 1.2300

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.8630-35 0.8660 0.8680 0.8700 0.8730 0.8750 0.8785 0.8800

Bids 0.8580-85 0.8550 0.8500 0.8450 0.0.8430 0.8400

EUR/JPY

Offers 116.30 116.50-55 117.00 117.30 117.50 118.00 118.45-50 119.00

Bids 115.80 115.60 115.30 115.00 114.80 114.50 114.20 114.00

USD/JPY

Offers 107.70 107.85 108.00 108.50 109.00 109.15-20 109.50

Bids 107.30 107.00 106.80-75 106.50 106.20 106.00 105.75-80 105.50 105.20 105.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7560-65 0.7580 0.7600 0.7630 0.7660 0.7685 0.7700 0.7730 0.7750

Bids 0.7520 0.7500 0.7475-80 0.7450 0.7420-25 0.7400

"The election, high court ruling and less dovish BoE have distracted investors playing GBP shorts.

There is some speculation that the Trump win can translate into a better political position for the UK vis-à-vis the EU, but the logic is not convincing. US-UK trade has not been an issue. Trade weighted rate differentials have moved against GBP since last week and should stay low without material local stimulus. The Autumn Statement in two weeks is significant in this regard, but doesn't look a catalyst. We think rates and FX vol stay supported while Brexit back-and-forth persists. The January Supreme Court ruling we suspect will not alleviate policy uncertainty. As much makes us hesitant to expect direct investment inflows yet.

We still favor shorts in GBPUSD".

Copyright © 2016 CitiFX, eFXnews™

European stocks are rising again after two days of decline, helped by an increase in prices of mining companies and banks against the background of investors' optimism that the newly elected US President will stimulate growth in the world's largest economy. However, the index is also supported by mergers and acquisitions (M & A).

Particular attention of investors is also drawn by statistical data for the euro area. Eurostat showed that the seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production in the euro zone fell in September by 0.8% after rising 1.8% in the previous month (revised from + 1.6%). Experts predicted a drop of 1.0%. Meanwhile, among the EU countries, industrial production fell by 0.7% after rising 1.6% in the previous month. On an annual basis, industrial production increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU. It was expected that production in the euro zone will grow by 1.0% after rising 2.2% in August (revised from + 1.8%). Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decline in industrial production were registered in Denmark (-8.1%), Germany (-1.9%) and Greece (-1.8%). Top growth was observed in Sweden (+ 7.6%), Ireland (+ 6.4%) and Estonia (+ 5.2%).

The composite index of the largest companies in the region Stoxx Europe Index 600 rose 0.6 percent.

Mining shares demonstrate the best performance among 19 industry groups Stoxx Europe 600 Index, due to an increase in metal prices. Shares of Rio Tinto Group, Glencore Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd rose by at least 2.4 percent.

Bank shares also increased markedly, mainly due to the rise of UBS Group and HSBC Holdings Plc.

The capitalization of Siemens increased 1.9 percent after the purchase of Mentor Graphics Corp for $ 4.5 billion. This step will allow Siemens to expand their opportunities for industrial software.

Novartis shares fell 0.4 percent after people familiar with the matter, said that the Swiss pharmaceutical company is in talks to acquire US Amneal Pharmaceuticals LLC.

The cost of Intrum Justitia AB jumped 12 percent as the largest debt collector in Europe said that acquires Lindorff for $ 1.96 billion.

At the moment:

FTSE 100 +40.65 6771.08 + 0.60%

DAX +40.14 10708.09 + 0.38%

CAC 40 +20.99 4510.26 + 0.47%

• Don't See Need to React Specifically to Rising Yield Curve

• Sees Heightened Uncertainty Following Trump Victory

• Growth Will Increase in Short Term in US

• We Would Like to See a Turning Point in Core Inflation

In September 2016 compared with August 2016, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.8% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In August 2016 industrial production rose by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU28. In September 2016 compared with September 2015, industrial production increased by 1.2% in both zones.

The decrease of 0.8% in industrial production in the euro area in September 2016, compared with August 2016, is due to production of durable consumer goods falling by 5.6%, capital goods by 2.2%, intermediate goods by 0.7% and energy by 0.2%, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.3%. In the EU28, the decrease of 0.7% is due to production of durable consumer goods falling by 3.7%, capital goods by 1.6%, energy by 0.6%, non-durable consumer goods by 0.4% and intermediate goods by 0.1%. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Denmark (-8.1%), Germany (-1.9%) and Greece (-1.8%), and the highest increases in Sweden (+7.6%), Ireland (+6.4%) and Estonia (+5.2%).

The overall index of producer and import prices rose in October 2016 from the previous month by 0.1 percent, reaching 99.8 points (base December 2015 = 100). While the producer price index fell by 0.1 percent, the import price index increased by 0.3 percent. The slight increase in the total amount is mainly due to higher prices of petroleum products. Compared to October 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.2 percent. This is evident from the figures of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

EUR/USD 1.0800 (EUR 985m) 1.0900 (544m) 1.0925 (297m) 1.0945-50 (799m),1.1000 (1.2bn) 1.1020 (1.03bn) 1.1025,(429m) 1.1045-50 (574m), 1.1075 (477m)1.1200 (535m) 1.1230 (572m) 1.1250 (1.62bn)

USD/JPY 103.00 (1.11bn) 104.10 (360m) 104.10-20 (840m), 105.00 (1.03bn) 106.00 (560m) 106.50 (646m)

GBP/USD 1.2500 (GBP 216m) 1.2560 (303m) 1.2625 (356m)

USD/CHF 0.9600 (USD 286m)

AUD/USD 0.7400 (500m) 0.7475 (218m) 0.7600 (308m) 0.7700 (352m)

USD/CAD 1.3200 (540m) 1.3350 (239m) 1.3400 (220m), 1.3600 (431m) 1.3800 (600m)

NZD/USD 0.7200 (NZD 300m) 0.7300 (400m)

EUR/JPY 116.25 (EUR 279m)

"We have been structurally bearish EUR/USD for a long time but scaled back our confidence levels this year as the Fed turned dovish and the ECB ran out of easing options. The Trump victory has changed things.

We now feel more confident that EUR/USD will break out of its 1.05-1.15 range and trade through parity next year.

First, it is high time EURUSD started to move again. The duration of the current lack of trend is approaching a record high (chart 1). When EURUSD last broke out of such a prolonged range corporate hedgers and asset allocators were caught off guard and the EUR moved 10% within the following few weeks.

Second, the dollar is approaching its sweet spot for a late-cycle rally. Big dollar moves are less dependent on the change in short-end yields but on the absolute level: whenever the dollar becomes a top-3 G10 high-yielder it rallies as yieldseeking inflows return. A Fed rate hike this December will make the dollar the third highest yielding currency in the world, a strong dollar positive (chart 2).

Finally, divergence is back. Even before Trump, the risks to US growth were tilted to the upside (chart 3). More fiscal and regulatory easing would add further upside risk to the growth and Fed outlook. Meantime European risks are tilted to the downside given a deteriorating credit impulse and political outlook (chart 4). The recent rise in European real rates increases the odds of a more dovish ECB.

Our EUR/USD forecasts remain at 1.05 and 95 cents for end-16 and end-17 respectively".

Copyright © 2016 DB, eFXnews™

• At 12:00 GMT the ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio will deliver a speech

• At 18:45 GMT the ECB president Mario Draghi will deliver a speech

• At 21:00 GMT ECB Board Member Peter Praet will deliver a speech

The Australian dollar was down against the US dollar after weak data from China. The Index of industrial production, published by the National Bureau of Statistics, rose in October by 6.1% on an annualized basis as well as in September, but was slightly below analysts' forecast of 6.2%. Since the beginning of this year, industrial production in China increased by 6% in annual terms. In addition, in October the retail sales in China fell to 10.0% from the previous value of 10.7% year on year. Analysts had expected the index to coincide with the value of September. Retail sales from the beginning of the year were also weaker than forecast, down from 10.4% to 10.3%.

At the same time, support for the Australian currency was a growth in iron ore prices, which is the largest section of Australian exports. On Friday, its value increased by 7.4%. The price for Australian coking coal since the beginning of this year has tripled, exceeding US $ 300 per tonne.

Nikkei rose more than 1.6% after the publication of strong data on Japan's GDP. As reported today by Japan's Cabinet Office, gross domestic product in the third quarter increased by 0.5%, from the previous value of 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator rose by 2.2%, after rising 0.7% in the second quarter. Economists had expected Japan's economy grew by 0.9% y/y.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.0775

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.2505

USD / JPY: rose to Y107.60 in the Asian session

According to data released today by the Institute of Real Estate of New Zealand (REINZ), seasonally adjusted house prices rose in October by 4% compared with the previous month. In annual terms, the average price of real estates has risen by 10.9%. The country's largest city, Auckland, saw a rise of 16% compared to October 2015.

However, a spokesman for REINZ, Bryan Thomson said there was a reduction in sales of houses in October by 14% compared to the same period of last year. According to the website realestate.co.nz were sold 7.400 less real estate.

According to data released by the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan, the country's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.5%, from the previous value of 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator rose by 2.2% in the third quarter, after rising 0.7% in the second quarter. Economists had expected Japan's economy to grew by 0.9% y/y. Japanese gross domestic product estimates the growth or decline of the economy and is a key macroeconomic indicator of market activity.

• We will continue to carefully monitor the impact of negative interest rates on banks

• Markets seem to like Trump's victory

• Little is known about Trump's policy, so it is premature to comment on that

• Hopefully Trump's policy will contribute positively to the world and the US economy

• GDP data showed that Japan's economy is firmly on its feet

• GDP data indicate a moderate uptrend

• Trans-Pacific Partnership will clearly be a boon for Japan

• The disappearance of the downward pressure from oil prices will allow the inflation of consumer prices in Japan to return to positive territory

China's industrial production and retail sales grew less-than-expected in October, while fixed asset investment growth improved slightly, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed Monday, cited by rttnews.

Industrial production increased 6.1 percent year-on-year in October, at the same pace of growth as seen in September. This was slower than the 6.2 percent expansion economists had expected.

At the same time, retail sales growth eased to 10 percent from 10.7 percent in September, signaling a slowdown in domestic demand. A similar growth was last seen in May. The annual pace of expansion was expected to stabilize at 10.7 percent.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1062 (2151)

$1.1001 (1407)

$1.0954 (659)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0795

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0733 (2824)

$1.0704 (4919)

$1.0673 (2429)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 9 is 62687 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (6325);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 9 is 57567 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (4919);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.90 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 11

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2904 (630)

$1.2807 (1161)

$1.2710 (1442)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2559

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2491 (2915)

$1.2394 (1287)

$1.2296 (3618)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 9 is 34127 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (2560);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 9 is 34710 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2300 (3618);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.