(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 52.57 -0.11%

Gold 1,194.20 +0.08%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -98.55 19368.85 -0.51%

TOPIX -5.48 1543.77 -0.35%

FTSE 100 -66.01 7118.48 -0.92%

DAX -132.38 11681.89 -1.12%

CAC 40 -55.34 4784.64 -1.14%

DJIA -122.65 19971.13 -0.61%

S&P 500 -13.79 2280.90 -0.60%

NASDAQ -47.07 5613.71 -0.83%

S&P/TSX -170.69 15405.12 -1.10%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0693 -0,01%

GBP/USD $1,2483 -0,55%

USD/CHF Chf0,9951 -0,39%

USD/JPY Y113,77 -1,20%

EUR/JPY Y121,65 -1,22%

GBP/JPY Y142,01 -1,75%

AUD/USD $0,7553 +0,08%

NZD/USD $0,7284 +0,32%

USD/CAD C$1,3115 -0,16%

00:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -7 -8

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December 5

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m December 0.5%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y December 5.4%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y December 6.7% 8.4%

05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y December -6.0%

06:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV 0.2% 0.4%

06:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter IV 1.0%

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted December -1.8% 1%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y December 3.2%

08:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6% 6%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January -17 -4

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln December 1926 1700

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals December 67.5 70

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter IV 0.3% 0.5%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter IV 1.7% 1.7%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Preliminary) January 0.9% 0.9%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) January 1.1% 1.4%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate December 9.8% 9.8%

13:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, m/m December 0.3%

13:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, y/y December 1.4%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) November -0.3% 0.3%

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y November 5.1%

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index January 54.6 55

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence January 113.7 112.9

21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter IV 1.4%

21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter IV 4.9%

22:35 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

Major stock indexes in Wall Street closed in the red, as the decision of the President of Donald Trump to restrict entry and immigration to the United States from certain countries has caused uncertainty in the market. Thus, according to the presidential decree, the United States for 120 days suspend the refugee-hosting the program for 90 days and close the entrance for people from several countries with a predominantly Muslim population.

In addition, as it became known today, US consumer spending increased significantly in December, as households have purchased cars and a wide range of services amid rising wages, pointing to robust domestic demand, which could push the economy up to the more rapid growth in early 2017 of the year. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.5% after growth of 0.2% in November. Economists forecast that consumer spending will grow by 0.5% last month. Consumer spending increased by 3.8% in 2016 after rising by 3.5% in 2015.

However, data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, showed that business activity Texas manufacturers rose again in January, registering the fifth consecutive monthly increase. According to the report, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index in January rose to 22.1 points from 17.7 points in December (revised from 15.5 points). Economists had expected the index to fall to 15.0 points. Recall index value above zero indicates growth in business activity.

Oil prices declined by about 1% as the news about the next increase in drilling activity in the US overshadowed the optimism of market participants regarding the conditions of production by OPEC reduction agreement. On Friday, Baker Hughes reported that according to the results ended Jan. 27 working weeks in the number of US rigs increased by 18 units to 712 units. The annualized figure rose to 93 pieces, or 15%.

DOW index components closed mostly in the red (24 of 30). Most remaining shares fell Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, -2.29%). Leaders of growth were shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS, + 1.24%).

All business sectors S & P index finished trading in the red. Сonglomeratessectors fell most (-2.1%) .

At the close:

Dow -0.57% 19,970.03 -114.33

Nasdaq -0.83% 5,613.71 -47.07

S & P -0.55% 2,280.75 -12.61

Majot U.S. stock-indexes were set for their worst day in more than three months on Monday, as President Donald Trump's orders to curb travel and immigration from some countries sparked uncertainty. Trump on Friday signed executive orders to suspend travel to the United States from seven Muslim-majority countries on grounds of national security, while also banning refugees from Syria.

Ком

Most of Dow stocks in negative area (27 of 30). Top loser - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, -2.18%). Top gainer - Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT, +0.88%).

All S&P sectors in negative area. Top loser - Conglomerates (-2.0%).

At the moment:

Dow 19852.00 -160.00 -0.80%

S&P 500 2270.25 -18.75 -0.82%

Nasdaq 100 5114.75 -47.75 -0.92%

Oil 52.68 -0.49 -0.92%

Gold 1198.50 +7.40 +0.62%

U.S. 10yr 2.49 +0.01

Polish equity market closed lower on Monday. The broad market measure, the WIG Index, declined by 1.07%, breaking a four day winning streak. The WIG sub-sector indices mostly closed in negative territory, with mining stocks benchmark, the WIG-MINING Index, (-2.3%) lagging behind.

The large-cap stocks' gauge, the WIG30 Index, dropped by 1.41%. A majority of the index components retreated, with coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW) underperforming with a 3.32% decline. Other major laggards were agricultural producer KERNEL (WSE: KER), oil refiner PKN ORLEN (WSE: PKN), copper producer KGHM (WSE: KGH) and three banking names BZ WBK (WSE: BZW), MBANK (WSE: MBK) and PEKAO (WSE: PEO), which tumbled by 2.14%-2.9%. At the same time, the few gainers included property developer GTC (WSE: GTC), bank ING BSK (WSE: ING), chemical producer SYNTHOS (WSE: SNS), footwear retailer CCC (WSE: CCC) and genco ENERGA (WSE: ENG), advancing by 0.29%-0.93%.

Pending home sales picked up in December as solid increases in the South and West offset weakening activity in the Northeast and Midwest.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing Home Sales by a month or two.

The US market started from a discount of 0.42%, which leads to a large, such for the American conditions, downward gap. This is not a good signal, also for the Warsaw market. After spoiling the mood by Americans, our indices also went down slightly, and an hour before the close of trading the WIG20 index was at the level of 2,066 points (-0,85%).

U.S. stock-index futures fell as investors assessed the implications of President Trump's executive order on immigration and the latest statistics on personal income/spending in the U.S.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,368.85 -98.55 -0.51%

Hang Seng - Closed

Shanghai - Closed

FTSE 7,127.94 -56.55 -0.79%

CAC 4,801.96 -38.02 -0.79%

DAX 11,730.13 -84.14 -0.71%

Crude $53.13 (-0.08%)

Gold $1,191.80 (+0.29%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

EUR/USD 1.0500 (EUR 1.41bln) 1.0525 (313m) 1.0650 (754m)

USD/JPY 113.30-40 (USD 959m)

GBP/USD 1.2500 (GBP 370m)

EUR/GBP 0.8515 (EUR 526m)

AUD/USD 0.7575-85 (AUD 365m)

AUD/NZD 1.0450 (AUD 890m)

AUD/JPY 85.00 (AUD 491m)

Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $43.6 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $63.1 billion (0.5 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in December and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

Upgrades:

American Express (AXP) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette

Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

Downgrades:

DuPont (DD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

Other:

January 31

Before the Open:

Exxon Mobil (XOM). Consensus EPS $0.71, Consensus Revenues $60904.92 mln.

Pfizer (PFE). Consensus EPS $0.51, Consensus Revenues $13689.67 mln.

After the Close:

Apple (AAPL). Consensus EPS $3.23, Consensus Revenues $77107.67 mln.

Arconic (ARNC). Consensus EPS $0.18, Consensus Revenues $3041.08 mln.

February 1

Before the Open:

Altria (MO). Consensus EPS $0.67, Consensus Revenues $4798.25 mln.

After the Close:

Facebook (FB). Consensus EPS $1.31, Consensus Revenues $8494.58 mln.

February 2

Before the Open:

Intl Paper (IP). Consensus EPS $0.71, Consensus Revenues $5319.52 mln.

Merck (MRK). Consensus EPS $0.89, Consensus Revenues $10233.89 mln.

After the Close:

Amazon (AMZN). Consensus EPS $1.42, Consensus Revenues $44689.93 mln.

Visa (V). Consensus EPS $0.78, Consensus Revenues $4278.65 mln.

The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be +1.9% in January 2017. A similarly high rate of inflation was last measured in July 2013 (+1.9%). Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.6% on December 2016.

In January 2017, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 1.9% year on year and to decrease by 0.8% on December 2016.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0730 1.0750 1.0765 1.0780 1.0800 1.0830 1.0850-55

Bids: 1.0680 1.0655-60 1.0625-30 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550 1.0520 1.0500

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2560 1.2580 1.2600 1.2630 1.2660 1.2680 1.2700 1.2730 1.2750

Bids: 1.2525-30 1.2500 1.2480-85 1.2450 1.2430 1.2400

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8550-55 0.8580-85 0.8600 0.8620 0.8650

Bids: 0.8500 0.8470-75 0.8450 0.8430 0.8400

EUR/JPY

Offers: 123.00 123.30 123.50 123.80 124.00 124.20 124.50 124.80 125.00

Bids: 122.55-60 122.30 122.00 121.80 121.60 121.20 121.00

USD/JPY

Offers: 115.00 115.30-35 115.50 115.65 115.80 116.00 116.20 116.50

Bids: 114.50 114.30 114.00 113.80 113.50 113.30 113.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7560 0.7580-85 0.7600 0.7630 0.7650

Bids: 0.7520 0.7500 0.7480-850.7450 0.7430 0.7400

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

• Would Be 'Suicide' for Italy to Leave Eurozone

• In Interest of France and Italy to Remain in Eurozone

• Trump Doesn't See That US Economic Priorities Require Cooperation

• Will Discuss Future Policy Before End of 2017

• ECB Can't React to Developments in One Country

In the first hour of today's trading the Warsaw market presented better than its surrounding. Into the southern phase of trade we have already entered with the discount in the main index of 0.8%, which meant a good correlation with similar declines in the environment. Weaker posture present today the banks sector, which index go down by more than 1%. Still we have to deal with poor investor's activity.

At the halfway point of today's quotations the WIG20 index was at the level of 2,070 points (-0,65%). The turnover in the segment of biggest companies was amounted to PLN 195 million.

The growth of the private sector fell in the three months through January, data from the Confederation of British Industry showed on Monday.

The growth rate dropped to 10 percent compared to 17 percent in December.

The picture was mixed between the various sectors during the period. Retailers reported decent growth in the previous three months, and the growth of production remained stable among producers, albeit at a slower pace. At the same time, the volume of the service sector has not changed.

In general, expectations have been growing at a level that will be maintained at the same rate over the next three months.

"While companies seek Brexit as a success, progress in improving the performance of the UK is the number one priority," said Rain Newton-Smith, chief economist at CBI.

Eurozone economic confidence strengthened in January, monthly survey data from the European Commission showed, cited by rttnews.

The economic confidence index rose to 108.2 in January from 107.8 in December. The score was expected to remain unchanged at 107.8.

The mildly positive developments in euro-area sentiment resulted from improvements in industry, services and consumer confidence which outweighed decreases in retail trade and construction confidence.

"Despite JPY strengthening in the new year, our positioning indicator suggests the market's short JPY position remains at multi-year extremes.

While first-tier data on the labour market and industrial output will attract some attention from the JPY next week, the main local focus will be the BoJ meeting and the Board's Outlook Report.

Over the past year, the JPY TWI has strengthened in the week of all but one of the BoJ meetings. Admittedly, BoJ meetings have usually occurred the same week as FOMC meetings, and a stubbornly dovish FOMC has contributed to JPY strength during those weeks.

While the FOMC also meets next week, its members have been sounding more hawkish and so could contribute to a breaking of this pattern. But we also see a risk of a more upbeat BoJ in its first Outlook Report for the year. Indeed, the weaker JPY in Q4 will lead to stronger inflation and, to some extent, cyclical data readings in the coming months. And JPY depreciation has already helped push medium-term inflation expectations higher. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently said that Japan's economy has improved a lot and that it will grow well above expectations.

There is also some risk of the BoJ scrapping its guidance as when it comes to bond purchases. The central bank may have stepped up purchases in bonds due in 5-10 years, but the increase is not fully offsetting the reduction in shorter-term purchases. Our economists note that the net increment in JGB holding in 2017 will be way below the present guidance of JPY80trn.

As such, a formal taper announcement cannot be excluded. Any announcement of a formal taper would likely contain some sticker shock and strengthen the JPY, as it would lose some of its appeal as a funding currency.

We still significant risk of further downside in JPY crosses".

Copyright © 2017 Credit Agricole CIB, eFXnews™

EUR/USD 1.0500 (EUR 1.41bln) 1.0525 (313m) 1.0650 (754m)

USD/JPY 113.30-40 (USD 959m)

GBP/USD 1.2500 (GBP 370m)

EUR/GBP 0.8515 (EUR 526m)

AUD/USD 0.7575-85 (AUD 365m)

AUD/NZD 1.0450 (AUD 890m)

AUD/JPY 85.00 (AUD 491m)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

This morning, the New York futures for Brent fell slightly to $ 55.59 and WTI fell by 0.09% to $ 53.12. Thus, the black gold prices remains under pressure after news that oil production in the US rose more than 6% since the middle of '16 to 8.96 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that oil production in the US will increase by 320 thousand barrels per day in 2017 to about 12.8 million barrels per day.

WIG20 index opened at 2082.83 points (-0.06%)*

WIG 55651.36 -0.01%

WIG30 2417.56 -0.12%

mWIG40 4655.10 0.23%

*/ - change to previous close

The cash market (the WIG20 index) started the day from a modest discount at moderate turnover. Positively at the opening performed Polimex (WSE: PXM) and GetinNoble Bank (WSE: GTN) where for this second company fosters information about a possible sale of the Idea Bank, which means that the funds will go to recapitalize GetinNoble. The wide market is dominated by increases, what means that the condition of the market at the beginning of the week specifically does not change.

After fifteen minutes of trading the WIG20 index was at the level of 2,083 points (-0,01%).

In January 2017, the Economic Barometer reached a score of 101.7 points. This relates to a slight downward revision by 0.4 points compared to its December value (102.1, revised from 102.2). Positive impulses to the Barometer came from the construction and the export sector.

Negative signals to the January standing came from indicators related to the financial sector, private consumption and, in particular, to the hotel and restaurant industry. The indicators from the manufacturing sector neutralized each other.

The Gross Domestic Product generated by the Spanish economy shows a variation of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the previous quarter, according to Estimation of quarterly GDP. This rate is similar to that recorded in the quarter previous.

The annual variation of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2016 stands at 3.0%, two tenths Lower than in the third quarter (3.2%). By the temporary aggregation of the four quarters, the growth in volume of GDP in the The year 2016 is estimated at 3.2%.

"Year-to-date, the Dow Jones is up 1.71%, US 10Y yields are up 8bp and EUR/USD is 1 1/2 figure higher. Uncertainty is extraordinarily high given the lack of clarity on US economic policy, the risks of EU fragmentation with the near-term UK-EU Brexit negotiations, and the Dutch and French elections. Markets are struggling to grasp the policy uncertainties as the range of possible outcomes is so diverse. Hence, markets are trading sideways awaiting new information. Still, some markets are trending with German 10Y yields reaching the highest level in a year and bank stocks continuing their march higher.

We expected that there would be a market vacuum during H1 given the lofty expectations following Trump's win and the challenge he will face to enact fast fiscal stimulus. But it has surprised us how quickly the market vacuum arrived. This can be explained by positioning as the market was very short 10Y UST futures and long US dollars (USD) from the beginning of the year. The market is impatient and as the new US administration seems to have trade as its #1 priority we are not any wiser on fiscal policy (see Chart 1). However, during Trump's first 100 days in office we should know more about the new US government's fiscal policy plans. The market is likely to be significantly less short UST futures and long USDs than a couple of weeks back.

Where does this leave us in terms of markets? We see risks skewed towards higher US yields as positioning is probably cleaner now than a couple of weeks back and we will get more details on US fiscal stimulus plans during Trump's first 100 days in office. Due to the strong US economic data recently, we will look for signs in next week's FOMC statement on whether the next Fed rate hike could come as soon as March or May. Core European curves should continue to steepen from 5Y and beyond even though they are already at elevated levels (see Chart 2). A dovish ECB should help to reflate the European economy, driving longer-end yields higher.

Over the coming 1-3 months, we expect the USD to strengthen in line with the receipt of more detail on the new US government's fiscal stimulus plans and probably other tariff and tax measures during Trump's first 100 day in office. We expect JPY-crosses to be the worst hit by reflation, with the USD/JPY likely to head up towards mid-December highs of 118/119".

Copyright © 2017 Danske, eFXnews™

Retail sales in Japan fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent on month in December, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday, cited by rttnews.

That missed expectations for a decline of 0.5 percent following the 0.2 percent increase in November.

On a yearly basis, retail sales added 0.6 percent - also shy of forecasts for a gain of 1.7 percent, which would have been unchanged from the November reading.

Large retailer sales dropped an annual 1.3 percent, missing forecasts for a fall of 1.0 percent following the 0.3 percent drop in the previous month.

Today's morning, the capital market has shown some shift away from risk, especially in the form of a lower opening of contracts in the United States. This may be due to the fact that in the US President Donald Trump shifted attention back to protectionism. As for the regulation issued blocking the possibility of the arrival of refugees and immigrants from seven Arab countries. This sparked protests and some legal confusion in the country. In Asia because of the new year will not work exchanges in six countries: China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia.

The Japan Nikkei has lost 0.5%. On the commodity market there is also seen a downward pressure on prices, though small. The macro calendar at the beginning of the week will be calm, we will see the publication of the revenue and expenditure of the Americans, which rather should not confuse a lot on the market, unless indeed will differ from expectations.

The beginning of the new week brings a slightly stronger zloty, mainly in relation to the US dollar. Polish currency is valued by investors as follows: PLN 4.3338 per euro, 4.0440 against the US dollar and PLN 5.0732 in relation to the pound sterling.

European stocks fell from a 13-year high on Friday, closing in negative territory as UBS Group PLC lead banking shares lower after a financial update. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, -0.30% shed 0.3% to 366.38, trimming its weekly gain to 1.1%.

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Friday after a monumental week that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 20,000 for the first time as investors weighed disappointing fourth-quarter data on domestic economic growth and a spate of earnings.

President Donald Trump's executive order on immigration and muted American GDP data have put traders in Asia back into risk-off positions, though many markets in the region are on a holiday break. Late Friday, Trump suspended the U.S. refugee program for four months and banned for 90 days entry into the U.S. for nationals from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somali, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0781 (2520)

$1.0756 (2240)

$1.0740 (449)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0720

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0624 (1339)

$1.0598 (2083)

$1.0569 (1779)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 61138 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (3829);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 72094 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (5013);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 27

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2807 (1711)

$1.2710 (1629)

$1.2615 (1615)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2567

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2487 (1643)

$1.2390 (943)

$1.2293 (1747)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 23126 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2595);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 26143 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3230);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.13 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.