The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the Fed's March monetary policy meeting minutes later in the day. Investors hope to get insight how the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy. The central bank may start to hike its interest rate in June. It is unclear how the Fed want to raise its interest rate.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Retail sales in the Eurozone fell 0.2% in February, missing expectations for a 0.1% decrease, after a 0.9% gain in January. January's figure was revised down from a 1.1% rise.

The decline was driven by lower gasoline sales and lower sales of food and drinks.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 3.0% in February, after a 3.2% increase in January. January's figure was revised down from a 3.7% gain.

German seasonal adjusted factory orders decreased 0.9% in February, missing expectations for a 1.5% increase, after a 2.6% drop in January. January's figure was revised up from a 3.9% decline.

Concerns over Greece's debt problems continue to weigh on the euro. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow today.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The Bank of England released its quarterly Credit Conditions Survey on Wednesday. U.K. lenders expect the demand for secured lending for house purchase to increase in the second quarter of 2015.

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's consumer price index rose 0.3% in March, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.3% decline in February.

The rise was driven by higher prices for clothing, petroleum products and package holidays.

On a yearly basis, Switzerland's consumer price index declined to -0.9% in March from -0.8% in February, beating expectations for a drop to -1.0%. It was the lowest level since June 2012.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi rose against the greenback in the absence of any economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie increased against the greenback in the absence of any economic reports from Australia.

The Aussie remained supported by yesterday's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. The RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen traded higher against the greenback as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its monetary policy unchanged. The central bank voted 8-1 to keep its monetary policy unchanged. Takahide Kiuchi wants the BoJ to cut its asset-purchase target by almost half.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at the press conference on Wednesday that Japan's economy faces less risk now than it did last year. He noted that the stimulus boost in October has a positive impact on wages and prices.

Japan's current account surplus jumped to 1,440.1 billion yen in February from a 61.4 billion yen surplus in January, exceeding expectations for a surplus of 1,150 billion yen. It was the highest level since September 2011.

The increase was driven by the higher value in yen terms of income from overseas investments and a smaller trade deficit.

Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index climbed to 52.2 in March from 50.1 in February, exceeding expectations for an increase to 50.9.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index rose to 53.4 in March from 53.2 in February.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at the press conference on Wednesday that Japan's economy faces less risk now than it did last year. He noted that the stimulus boost in October has a positive impact on wages and prices.

The BoJ governor reiterated that the central will adjust its monetary policy if needed to achieve its 2% inflation target.

The New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Wednesday that the Fed could still start to raise its interest in June if the economic data pick up in the coming months. He noted that it is better to wait to hike interest rate as the inflation is below the Fed's 2% target.

He pointed out that the pace of the interest rate increase will depend on market reaction.

Japan's Cabinet Office released Eco Watchers' Index figures on Wednesday. Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index climbed to 52.2 in March from 50.1 in February, exceeding expectations for an increase to 50.9.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index rose to 53.4 in March from 53.2 in February.

A reading above 50 indicates optimism, while a reading below 50 indicates pessimism.

The Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said in a speech in New York on Wednesday that the Fed should wait longer before tightening its monetary policy, but he expects the first interest rate hike "later this year". He added that he believes it's better to raise interest rate if the economic data better than expected.

Powell noted that the financial crisis damaged the productive capacity of the U.S. economy. "Given this uncertainty, it is even more difficult than usual to assess how much slack remains. It seems plausible that at least part of this supply-side damage could be reversed if the economy enjoys a period of sustained growth," he said.

The Federal Reserve governor expects that the labour market will continue to strengthen.

Powell noted that he expects the interest rate to increase "fairly gradually".

The Bank of England released its quarterly Credit Conditions Survey on Wednesday. U.K. lenders expect the demand for secured lending for house purchase to increase in the second quarter of 2015. The demand for secured lending for house purchase fell in the first quarter.

The demand for credit card lending by households also declined in the first quarter.

The demand for lending from large corporates rose in the first quarter, while the demand from small businesses and medium-sized companies remained unchanged.

EUR/USD: $1.0800(E615mn), $1.0825/35(E600mn), $1.0900(E543mn), $1.0955(E401mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.50($700mn), Y120.00($806mn), Y120.50($301mn), Y120.65($400mn)

GBP/USD: $1.4700(Gbp516mn), $1.4900(Gbp900mn), $1.4930(Gbp301mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7725(A$213mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9710/20($420mn), Chf0.9825($500mn)

The Swiss Federal Statistics Office released its consumer inflation data on Wednesday. Switzerland's consumer price index rose 0.3% in March, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.3% decline in February.

The rise was driven by higher prices for clothing, petroleum products and package holidays.

On a yearly basis, Switzerland's consumer price index declined to -0.9% in March from -0.8% in February, beating expectations for a drop to -1.0%. It was the lowest level since June 2012.

Prices of domestic goods climbed 0.3% in March, while prices of imported goods fell 4.3%.

Eurostat released its retail sales data for the Eurozone on Wednesday. Retail sales in the Eurozone fell 0.2% in February, missing expectations for a 0.1% decrease, after a 0.9% gain in January. January's figure was revised down from a 1.1% rise.

The decline was driven by lower gasoline sales and lower sales of food and drinks.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 3.0% in February, after a 3.2% increase in January. January's figure was revised down from a 3.7% gain.

As oil prices have stabilised in recent months, the households spending sank.

Japan's Ministry of Finance released its current account figures on late Tuesday. The current account surplus jumped to 1,440.1 billion yen in February from a 61.4 billion yen surplus in January, exceeding expectations for a surplus of 1,150 billion yen. It was the highest level since September 2011.

The increase was driven by the higher value in yen terms of income from overseas investments and a smaller trade deficit.

The trade balance deficit fell to 143.1 billion yen in February from the deficit of 864.2 billion yen in the previous month.

Falling oil prices helped to lower the trade deficit.

Exports rose at an annual rate of 0.4%, while imports dropped at an annual 6.2%.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 275 275

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current March 50.1 50.9 52.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook March 53.2 53.4

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -2.6% Revised From -3.9% 1.5% -0.9%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -0.3% Revised From -0.1% -1.3%

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln February -3.7 -3.8 €-3.44B

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) March -0.3% 0.1% 0.3%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) March -0.8% -1.0% -0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February 0.9% Revised From 1.1% -0.1% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 3.2% Revised From 3.7% 3.0%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the Fed's March monetary policy meeting minutes later in the day. Investors hope to get insight how the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy. The central bank may start to hike its interest rate in June. It is unclear how the Fed want to raise its interest rate.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales in the Eurozone fell 0.2% in February, missing expectations for a 0.1% decrease, after a 0.9% gain in January. January's figure was revised down from a 1.1% rise.

The decline was driven by lower gasoline sales and lower sales of food and drinks.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 3.0% in February, after a 3.2% increase in January. January's figure was revised down from a 3.7% gain.

German seasonal adjusted factory orders decreased 0.9% in February, missing expectations for a 1.5% increase, after a 2.6% drop in January. January's figure was revised up from a 3.9% decline.

Concerns over Greece's debt problems continue to weigh on the euro. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow today.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The Bank of England released its quarterly Credit Conditions Survey on Wednesday. U.K. lenders expect the demand for secured lending for house purchase to increase in the second quarter of 2015.

The Swiss franc traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected consumer price inflation from Switzerland. Switzerland's consumer price index rose 0.3% in March, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.3% decline in February.

The rise was driven by higher prices for clothing, petroleum products and package holidays.

On a yearly basis, Switzerland's consumer price index declined to -0.9% in March from -0.8% in February, beating expectations for a drop to -1.0%. It was the lowest level since June 2012.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.0887

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.4952

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0950 1.0900

Bids 1.0825/26 1.0805/00 1.0750 1.0700

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5020/25 1.5000 1.4950

Bids 1.4905/00 1.4800

EUR/JPY

Offers 131.50 131.00 130.50

Bids 129.50 129.20/00 128.50

USD/JPY

Offers 121.00 120.50 120.20

Bids 119.50 119.00

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7390

Bids 0.7250 0,7210/00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7850 0.7780/00 0.7750

Bids 0.7685/80 0.7610/00 0.7550

The Fed released its consumer credits figures on Tuesday. Consumer credit in the U.S. rose by $15.5 billion in February, exceeding expectations for a $13.6 billion increase, after a $10.8 billion gain January.

January's figure was revised down from a $11.6 billion rise.

The increase was driven by a gain in non-revolving credit. Non-revolving credit surged up by $19.2 billion in February, while revolving credit declined by $3.7 billion.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Tuesday ruled out another round of fiscal stimulus to help the economy, which has been hurt by lower oil prices. He said that the economy is still expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated.

Canadian gross domestic product declined 0.1% in January and job creation over the past 12 months has been weak due to lower oil prices.

Harper confirmed the government intension to eliminate deficit ahead of the release of the federal budget later this month.

The Bank of Japan left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.10% after an 8 to 1 vote and kept the bank's Monetary Base Target unchanged at 275 billion. One member voted against and expressed that the stimulus should be reduced but was voted down. Takahide Kiuchi wants the BoJ to cut its asset-purchase target by almost half. The bank should make inflation at 2% a medium to long term target. Tensions on the board are intensifying.

EUR/USD: $1.0800(E615mn), $1.0825/35(E600mn), $1.0900(E543mn), $1.0955(E401mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.50($700mn), Y120.00($806mn), Y120.50($301mn), Y120.65($400mn)

GBP/USD: $1.4700(Gbp516mn), $1.4900(Gbp900mn), $1.4930(Gbp301mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7725(A$213mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9710/20($420mn), Chf0.9825($500mn)

BLOOMBERG

Forget Interest Rates, the Fed Has Another Big Decision to Make in the Next Year

In case exiting years of zero interest rates won't be hard enough, Federal Reserve officials have another challenge approaching quickly: when to begin unwinding trillions of dollars of bond purchases that constitute the world's largest fixed-income portfolio.

Less than a year from now, the Fed must decide whether to reinvest $216 billion of proceeds from Treasury debt maturing in 2016, or shrink its balance sheet by allowing it to expire. By not reinvesting, the Fed would increase the supply of securities available to investors and put upward pressure on yields.

Shrinking the $4.2 trillion portfolio will add to the monetary tightening from increases in the benchmark interest rate officials envision for this year. That would mark a reversal of the easing the Fed achieved when it bought bonds to speed a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/2016-fed-balance-sheet-decision-looms-beyond-rate-liftoff

REUTERS
Oil down on U.S. stock build, record Saudi output

(Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than a percent on Wednesday as industry data showed a larger-than-expected weekly increase in U.S. stockpiles and as Saudi Arabia reported record output in March.

The decline in prices followed a rally on Tuesday, when U.S. crude approached 2015 highs following strong jobs data and government forecasts for lower U.S. crude production growth and higher global demand for oil.

"We're going to need to see a very big uptick in demand to offset that supply," Ben Le Brun, analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney said. "There is a glut of supply in oil at the moment."

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/08/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0MZ03320150408

BLOOMBERG

Shell Will Buy BG Group for $70 Billion in Cash and Shares

Royal Dutch Shell Plc agreed to buy BG Group Plc for about 47 billion pounds ($70 billion) in cash and shares, the oil and gas industry's biggest deal in at least a decade.

The acquisition is the most significant response yet to the slump in oil prices and could set in motion a series of mergers as the largest energy companies look to cut costs and restore profits.

Shell will pay 383 pence in cash and 0.4454 of Shell's B shares for each BG share, BG said in a statement today. That's equal to about 1,367 pence a share and gives BG a market value of about 47 billion pounds. It's a premium of about 50 percent on BG's closing share price yesterday.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/shell-will-buy-bg-group-for-70-billion-in-cash-and-shares

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 275 275

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current March 50.1 50.9 52.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook March 53.2 53.4

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -3.9% 1.5% -0.9%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -0.1% -1.3%

The U.S. dollar is trading broadly lower against its major peers after yesterday's better-than-expected U.S. job openings figures did not lend further support and a possible rate hike delay weighed on the currency. Job openings climbed to 5.133 million in February from 4.965 million in January. It was the highest level since January 2001. January's figure was revised down from 4.998 million. Analysts had expected job openings to rise to 4.978 million. Today at 13:30 GMT FOMC Member Dudley speaks and at 18:00 the FOMC minutes of the last policy meeting will be published.

The Australian dollar continued to add gains against the U.S. dollar after the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.25% yesterday but said that future rate cuts could be necessary and appropriate in order to keep growth and inflation consistent with the target.

New Zealand's dollar booked gains against the greenback during the Asian in the absence of any major economic news.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the greenback in the Asian session. The Bank of Japan left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.10% after an 8 to 1 vote and kept the bank's Monetary Base Target unchanged at 275 billion. One member voted for a lower target but was voted down. The current Eco Watchers Survey for March increased above estimates to 52.2, beating forecasts of an increase to 50.9 from a previous reading of 50.1. The Eco Watchers Outlook rose from 53.2. to 53.4. At 06:30 GMT the Bo J will hold a press conference.

EUR/USD: the euro traded higher against the greenback

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln February -3.7 -3.8

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March -0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March 8.3%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) March -0.3% 0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) March -0.8% 1.0%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February 1.1% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 3.7%

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April 4.8

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance March 14% 15%

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index March 43.9

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1015 (1985)

$1.0946 (1060)

$1.0901 (116)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0838

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0764 (1221)

$1.0724 (1783)

$1.0673 (3142)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 44184 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6149);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 60793 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (7533);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.38 versus 1.38 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 7

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5111 (1334)

$1.5015 (1281)

$1.4919 (690)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4846

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4778 (2387)

$1.4682 (2758)

$1.4586 (602)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 17580 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5100 (1334);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 24297 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4700 (2758);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.38 versus 1.46 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/JPY $1,0811 -1,13%

GBP/USD $1,4813 -0,51%

USD/CHF Chf0,9663 +0,86%

USD/JPY Y120,30 +0,67%

EUR/JPY Y130,06 -0,45%

GBP/JPY Y178,2 +0,17%

AUD/USD $0,7637 +0,45%

NZD/USD $0,7497 -0,65%

USD/CAD C$1,2506 +0,27%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 275

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current March 50.1 50.9

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook March 53.2

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -3.9% 1.5%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -0.1%

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln February -3.7 -3.8

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March -0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March 8.3%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) March -0.3% 0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) March -0.8% 1.0%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February 1.1% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February 3.7%

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April 4.8

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance March 14% 15%

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index March 43.9