The dollar appreciated strongly against the euro, approaching to $ 1.12. Experts note that the euro under pressure in light of the lack of progress in the Greek negotiations. Also today, the German publication Bild reported that Greece plans to defer payment of the IMF in June for 6 months. The publication Bild quoted unnamed sources in Europe. However, the Greek government has denied reports that Athens plans to delay debt payments. Earlier today, it was rumored that on Sunday held an extraordinary meeting of eurozone authorities. In turn, German Chancellor Merkel said that almost no information on the progress in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. Merkel added that she is not sure that will be possible to reach an agreement by Thursday.
In addition, investors caution pending the outcome of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA, which will be held June 16-17. According to the consensus forecast, the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates in June, but it may toughen the wording of the statement in preparation for the normalization of monetary policy.
Small influenced today's data on the US housing market. The Commerce Department reported that the establishment of new homes in the US fell by 11.1% compared to the previous month and reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036 thousand. Units. Nevertheless, bookmarks were up 22.1% in April, more than preliminary estimates. Economists had expected the establishment of new homes will be reduced to the level of 1100 thousand. In May. Report on Tuesday suggests that the pace of construction can recover later this year. Building permits rose 11.8% last month to equal 1275 thousand., Exceeding economists' expectations in 1100 thousand. Permits. Data on housing starts are inaccurate and often revised as more data become available. Broader trends show a marked increase in activity. Bookmarks new homes were 5.1% higher in May compared with a year earlier, while building permits were more than 25.4%.
The pound rose against the dollar, recovering all the lost ground earlier and reached a three-week high as investors turn their attention to tomorrow's meeting of the FOMC. Despite the fact that the increase in June, almost no one expects the market will closely monitor the language of the statement. Support currency also had a report from the Conference Board, which showed that the results of April leading economic index (LEI) for the UK increased by 0.4 percent to 113.6 points (2010 = 100) after rising 0.3 percent in March and an increase of 0.7 percent in February. Within six months (April), this figure rose by 1.4 percent (about 2.9 per cent per annum) compared with an increase of 0.6 percent (about 1.3 per cent per annum) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, the coincident economic indicator (CEI) improved by 0.2 percent to 106.0 (2010 = 100), after rising 0.2 percent in March and February. For the six-month period (April) index rose by 1.4 percent (about 2.9 per cent per annum compared with 0.6 percent (about 1.2 per cent per annum) over the previous six months. Taken together, the changes of the composite index suggests that the economy It is likely to continue to grow moderately during the summer, and has the potential to accelerate growth.
Earlier significant pressure on the pound have inflation data. As it became known, in the UK, consumer prices rose in May after falling for the first time since 1960. Consumer prices rose by 0.1 percent compared to last year as economists expected, offsetting 0.1 percent drop in April. On a monthly measurement of consumer price index rose 0.2 percent, as in April, and in accordance with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased by 0.9 percent compared to 0.8 percent in April. Another report from the ONS showed that producer prices fell by 1.6 percent, according to the forecast, and slower than the 1.7 percent decline in April. This was the eleventh consecutive decline in prices. As expected, a monthly measurement of producer prices rose 0.1 percent for the third month in a row in May.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Tuesday that Athens will not provide a new reform proposal to its creditors at the upcoming meeting of finance ministers.
"The Eurogroup is not the right place to present proposals which haven't been discussed and negotiated on a lower level before," he noted.
The next round of talks is scheduled to at the finance ministers' meeting this Thursday in Luxembourg.
Varoufakis added that Greece is ready to continue the debt talks.
German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on Monday that capital controls by the European Central Bank could be imposed this weekend. Athens denied this report.
According to Süddeutsche Zeitung, Athens' creditors will provide an ultimatum proposal to Greece. If the debt talks does not make any progress this week, capital controls will be imposed.
Capital controls were last imposed in Cyprus in 2013.
EUR/USD: Jun17 $1.1200(E500mn); Jun19 $1.1200(2.7bn)
USD/JPY: Jun18 Y124.00($732mn); Jun19 Y122.00($2.8bn), Y124.50($1.7bn), Y125.00($4.0bn)
GBP/USD: Jun18 $1.5400(Gbp1.0bn); Jun19 $1.55(Gbp900mn)
AUD/USD: Jun18 $0.7700(A$1.42bn); Jun19 $0.7600(A$637mn)
NZD/USD: Jun18 $0.6975(NZ$2.21bn), $0.7000(NZ$701mn)
USD/CAD: Jun16 C$1.2185($1.0bn), 1.2500-10($1.2bn)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its minutes from June monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The RBA said that the monetary policy should be accommodative.
The Australian dollar's exchanged rate "continued to offer less assistance", according to the central bank. Board members pointed out that further depreciation of the Australian dollar "seemed to be both likely and necessary". The interest rate cut will be depend on the incoming economic data.
The RBA kept unchanged its interest rate at 2.00% in June.
The U.S. Commerce Department released the housing market data on Tuesday. Housing starts in the U.S. declined 11.1% to 1,036 million annualized rate in May from a 1,165 million pace in April, exceeding expectations for a rise to 1.019 million. April's figure was revised up from 1,135 million units.
The decline was driven by a falls in both starts of single-family and multi-family homes.
Building permits in the U.S. climbed 11.8% to 1.275 million annualized rate in May from a 1.140 million pace in April. It was the highest level since August 2007.
Analysts had expected building permits to increase to 1.100 million units.
Starts of single-family homes dropped 5.7% in May. Building permits for single-family homes rose 2.6%.
Starts of multifamily buildings plunged 20.2% in May. Permits for multi-family housing jumped 24.9%.
Housing market activity may accelerate this year due to the improvements in the labour market.
Statistics Canada released foreign investment figures on Tuesday. Foreign investors purchased C$12.94 billion of Canadian securities in April, after a purchase of C$22.56 billion in March. It was the highest inflow since May 2012.
March's figure was revised up from a purchase of C$22.47 billion.
Canadian investors purchased C$6.6 billion of foreign securities in April, mainly non-US foreign securities.
Eurostat released its employment data for the Eurozone on Tuesday. Employment in the Eurozone climbed 0.1% in the first quarter, after a 0.1% rise in the fourth quarter. Eurostat estimates that 150.3 million people were employed in the Eurozone in the first quarter of 2015.
The highest rises were recorded in Latvia (+1.5%), Estonia (+0.9%), Spain (+0.8%), Ireland, and Portugal (all +0.7%).
Employment was stable in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) May 2.8% 0.8%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) May -1.5% -1.3%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes
05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) May 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) May 0.5% 0.7% 0.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m May 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y May 0.9% 1.1% 1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) May 1.4% Revised From 0.4% 0.4% -0.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) May -11.0% Revised From -11.7% -11.4% -12.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) May 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) May -1.7% -1.6% -1.6%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m May 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y May -0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y May 0.8% 0.9%
09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I 0.1% 0.1%
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment June 61.2 53.7
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment June 41.9 37.1 31.5
The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. housing market data. Housing starts in the U.S. are expected to decline to 1.100 million units in May from 1.135 million units in April.
The number of building permits is expected to fall to 1.100 million units in May from 1.140 million units in April.
The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar on concerns over the Greek debt problem. The weekend's debt talks between Greece and its creditors were unsuccessful.
The next round of talks is scheduled to at the finance ministers' meeting this Thursday in Luxembourg.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that Athens will not provide a new reform proposal.
German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that capital controls could be imposed this week. Athens denied this report.
Meanwhile, the economic data from the Eurozone was mixed. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index slid to 31.5 in June from 41.9 in May, missing expectations for a decline to 37.1.
The ZEW President Clemens Fuest said that "the ongoing uncertainty over Greece's future and the restrained dynamic of the global economy" weighed on the German economy.
Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index dropped to 53.7 in June from 61.2 in May.
Employment in the Eurozone climbed 0.1% in the first quarter, after a 0.1% rise in the fourth quarter.
German final consumer price index rose 0.1% in May, in line with the preliminary estimate, after a flat reading in April.
The increase was driven by higher food and non-alcoholic beverages costs.
On a yearly basis, German final consumer price index increased to 0.7% in May from 0.5% in April, in line with the preliminary estimate. It was the highest level since October 2014.
The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the release of the consumer inflation data from the U.K. The U.K. consumer price index rose to 0.1% in May from -0.1% in April, in line with expectations.
The increase was driven by higher prices for airfares and smaller declines in food and fuel prices than a year earlier.
The Bank of England Governor (BoE) Mark Carney expects the consumer price inflation to rise towards the end of the year.
Consumer price inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices climbed to 0.9% in May from 0.8% the month before.
The consumer price inflation is below the Bank of England's 2% target.
The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Canadian foreign securities purchases data.
The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) released its economic growth forecasts for Switzerland on Tuesday. SECO lowered its economic growth forecast for 2015 to 0.8% from its March estimate of 0.9% due to a weak economic activity in the first quarter of 2015 and due to the downward revision of the U.S. economic growth in 2015.
SECO forecasted the growth of 1.6% in 2016, down from its March estimate of 1.8%.
Inflation forecasts were left unchanged. Inflation is expected to be -1% this year and +0.3% in 2016.
Unemployment rate is expected to be at 3.3% this year, at 3.5% in 2016, up from its March estimate of 3.4%.
EUR/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.1208
GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed
USD/JPY: the currency pair fell to Y123.39
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases April 22.47
12:30 U.S. Housing Starts May 1135 1100
12:30 U.S. Building Permits May 1140 1100
22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter I -3190 235
23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln May -53.4 -226
EUR/USD
Offers 1.1260 1.1280 1.1300 1.1320 1.1340 1.1365 1.1380 1.1400
Bids 1.1220 1.1200 1.1185 1.1150 1.1130 1.1100 1.1080-85 1.1065 1.1050
GBP/USD
Offers 1.5650 1.5670 1.5685 1.5700 1.5725 1.5745 1.5780 1.5800
Bids 1.5585 1.5565 1.5540 1.5520-25 1.5500 1.5480-85 1.5460 1.5440-45 1.5425 1.5400
EUR/GBP
Offers 0.7250-55 0.7270 0.7285 0.7300 0.7320-25 0.7350
Bids 0.7210 0.7200 0.7185 0.7160 0.7130 0.7100
EUR/JPY
Offers 139.80 140.00 140.20 140.50 140.80 141.00
Bids 139.00 138.80 138.50 138.30 138.00 137.50 137.00
USD/JPY
Offers 123.80 124.00 124.25 124.40 124.75-80 125.00
Bids 123.30 123.00 122.80 122.60 122.30 122.00
AUD/USD
Offers 0.7730 0.7750 0.7770 0.7785 0.7800 0.7830 0.7850 0.7865 0.7880 0.7900
Bids 0.7700 0.7680 0.7650 0.7625-30 0.7600 0.7585 0.7550
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) released its economic growth forecasts for Switzerland on Tuesday. SECO lowered its economic growth forecast for 2015 to 0.8% from its March estimate of 0.9% due to a weak economic activity in the first quarter of 2015 and due to the downward revision of the U.S. economic growth in 2015.
SECO forecasted the growth of 1.6% in 2016, down from its March estimate of 1.8%.
Inflation forecasts were left unchanged. Inflation is expected to be -1% this year and +0.3% in 2016.
Unemployment rate is expected to be at 3.3% this year, at 3.5% in 2016, up from its March estimate of 3.4%.
SECO warned that there is a risk on the Swiss economy due to the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc.
SECO expects the Swiss economy to improve in the coming quarters.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research released its economic sentiment index for Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index slid to 31.5 in June from 41.9 in May, missing expectations for a decline to 37.1.
The ZEW President Clemens Fuest said that "the ongoing uncertainty over Greece's future and the restrained dynamic of the global economy" weighed on the German economy.
Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index dropped to 53.7 in June from 61.2 in May.
EUR/USD: Jun17 $1.1200(E500mn); Jun19 $1.1200(2.7bn)
USD/JPY: Jun18 Y124.00($732mn); Jun19 Y122.00($2.8bn), Y124.50($1.7bn), Y125.00($4.0bn)
GBP/USD: Jun18 $1.5400(Gbp1.0bn); Jun19 $1.55(Gbp900mn)
AUD/USD: Jun18 $0.7700(A$1.42bn); Jun19 $0.7600(A$637mn)
NZD/USD: Jun18 $0.6975(NZ$2.21bn), $0.7000(NZ$701mn)
USD/CAD: Jun16 C$1.2185($1.0bn), 1.2500-10($1.2bn)
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the consumer price inflation data for the U.K. on Tuesday. The U.K. consumer price index rose to 0.1% in May from -0.1% in April, in line with expectations.
The increase was driven by higher prices for airfares and smaller declines in food and fuel prices than a year earlier.
The Bank of England Governor (BoE) Mark Carney expects the consumer price inflation to rise towards the end of the year.
On a monthly basis, U.K. consumer prices increased 0.2% in May, in line with expectations, after a 0.2% rise in April.
Consumer price inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices climbed to 0.9% in May from 0.8% the month before.
The Retail Prices Index rose to 1.0% in May from 0.9% in April, missing expectations for an increase to 1.1%.
The consumer price inflation is below the Bank of England's 2% target.
Destatis released its final consumer price data for Germany on Tuesday. German final consumer price index rose 0.1% in May, in line with the preliminary estimate, after a flat reading in April.
The increase was driven by higher food and non-alcoholic beverages costs. Food and non-alcoholic beverages climbed 1.4% year-on-year in May, while recreation and culture prices rose 1.7%.
On a yearly basis, German final consumer price index increased to 0.7% in May from 0.5% in April, in line with the preliminary estimate. It was the highest level since October 2014.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday that he did not want to influence the yen's exchange rate saying the yen was "very weak " last week.
"I didn't mean to evaluate the current nominal exchange rate or forecast the outlook. I just gave a theoretical explanation in response to a question about real effective rates," Kuroda noted today.
The BoJ pointed out that a weak yen boosts exports and revenues at companies operating overseas, but it hurts households and non-manufacturers as import costs rise.
According to banking sources, the outflows totalled €400 million yesterday. Money continues to flee the Greek financial system. Difficult negotiations between Athens and its creditors increase uncertainty and fears about the possible introduction of capital controls.
Greek banks saw deposit outflows of €200-250 million a day.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) May 2.8% 0.8%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes
05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y May 0.5% 0.7% 0.7%
The U.S. dollar started Tuesday moving sideways as traders anticipate Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged; however policymakers' comments and the FOMC statement may provide some clues on the timing of the liftoff. Yesterday data showed that the U.S. industrial production index missed expectations for a 0.3% growth in May on a monthly basis and fell by 0.2%. On a y/y basis the index rose by 1.4% vs 1.9% reported previously.
The euro slightly edged up amid the weaker-than-expected data on the U.S. economy. Market participants are waiting for news on Greece when the euro zone finance ministers meet on Thursday.
The pound is steady ahead of inflation data.
The Australian dollar is currently at $0.7751 ahead of the Fed meeting. June 2015 Monetary Policy Meeting minutes reiterated that the AUD was likely to decline.
The New Zealand dollar slightly shifted down to $0.6982.
The Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar. It's currently at Y123.59. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that his remarks about the yen's weakness shouldn't be understood as clues for the currency's direction.
EUR/USD: the dollar is muted ahead of Fed interest rate decision
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar slightly advanced against the yen
GBP/USD: the sterling continued to gain at a moderate pace
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m May 0.4% 0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y May 0.9% 1.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) May 0.4% 0.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) May -11.7% -11.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) May 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) May -1.7% -1.6%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m May 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y May -0.1% 0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y May 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I 0.1%
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment June 61.2
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment June 41.9 37.1
12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases April 22.47
12:30 U.S. Housing Starts May 1135 1100
12:30 U.S. Building Permits May 1140 1100
20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories June -6.7
22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter I -3190 235
23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln May -53.4 -226
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) May 2.8% 0.8%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) May -1.5% -1.3%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes
The yen slid after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament Tuesday that he didn't mean to predict a future nominal exchange rate when discussing the yen's weakness last week. Sixteen of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the BOJ adding to its unprecedented easing by the end of October, down from 21 of 36 in May.
Germany and the U.K. update consumer prices data Tuesday, and the ZEW survey of growth expectations in the euro region is due.
While U.S. data from hiring to spending has supported the case for tighter monetary policy, the Fed -- which starts a two-day meeting Tuesday -- isn't projected to move on interest rates until at least September.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading around $ 1.1275
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.5610
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y123.80
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1410 (2871)
$1.1376 (1876)
$1.1334 (976)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1269
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1226 (1394)
$1.1191 (532)
$1.1144 (1423)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 2 is 51041 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (3605);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 77563 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0500 (8372);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.52 versus 1.62 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 15
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.5903 (749)
$1.5805 (2107)
$1.5709 (605)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.5597
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.5491 (339)
$1.5394 (1166)
$1.5296 (2033)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 2 is 22205 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (2552);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 22702 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5250 (2120);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 15
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1281 +0,14%
GBP/USD $1,5595 +0,22%
USD/CHF Chf0,9298 +0,25%
USD/JPY Y123,40 +0,02%
EUR/JPY Y139,21 +0,15%
GBP/JPY Y192,44 +0,71%
AUD/USD $0,7760 +0,39%
NZD/USD $0,6996 +0,17%
USD/CAD C$1,2318 0,00%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) May 2.8%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) May -1.5%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes
05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) May 0.0% 0.1%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) May 0.5% 0.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m May 0.4% 0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y May 0.9% 1.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) May 0.4% 0.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) May -11.7% -11.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) May 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) May -1.7% -1.6%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m May 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y May -0.1% 0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y May 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I 0.1%
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment June 61.2
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment June 41.9 37.1
12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases April 22.47
12:30 U.S. Housing Starts May 1135 1100
12:30 U.S. Building Permits May 1140 1100
20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories June -6.7
22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter I -3190
23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln May -53.4 -226