Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in a speech on Friday that the Fed should start raising its interest rates.
"A prudent monetary policy based on traditional central banking principles would begin normalizing the committee's policy settings gradually, since the goals of policy have essentially been met," he said.
He added that even the Fed starts raising its interest rates, the monetary policy will remain accommodative.
"For those who still think more accommodation is needed--do not worry! Policy will remain exceptionally accommodative through the medium term no matter how the committee proceeds," he said.
Bullard is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index decreased to 87.2 in September from 91.9 in August, up from the preliminary estimate of 85.7 and beating expectations a decrease to 86.7. It was the lowest reading since October 2014.
"Consumers now believe that that global economic trends can directly influence their own job and wage prospects," the Surveys of Consumers chief economist at the University of Michigan Richard Curtin.
The current economic conditions index declined to 101.2 in September from 105.1 in August, up from a preliminary reading of 100.3.
The index of consumer expectations fell to 78.2 in September from 83.4 in August, up from a preliminary reading of 76.4.
The inflation expectations for the next year remained unchanged at 2.8% in September.
Markit Economics released its preliminary services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. on Friday. The U.S. preliminary services purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 55.6 in September from 56.1 in August, in line with expectations.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity.
The decline was driven by a slowdown in new business growth and a drop in input price inflation.
"The survey data point to sustained steady expansion of the US economy at the end of the third quarter, but various warning lights are now flashing brighter, meaning growth may continue to weaken in coming months. Although the surveys suggest the economy expanded at a 2.2% annualised rate in the third quarter, growth slowed in September and could weaken further in coming months," Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson.
The Bank of England's (BoE) Financial Policy Committee (FPC) said on Friday that risks to U.K. financial stability increased due to a slowdown in the Chinese and emerging market economies, but risks in relation to Greece and the Eurozone declined.
"Overall, the FPC judges that the outlook remains challenging. While the resilience of the financial system has continued to improve, downside risks have risen," the FPC said in its statement.
Sheng Songcheng, head of the survey and statistics department at the People's Bank of China (PBoC), said on Friday that the yuan devaluation and recent capital outflows will be short-term.
He added that China's exchange rate reform was implemented at a good time.
EUR/USD: $1.1100(E1.2bn), $1.1200(E700mn), $1.1250($832mn), $1.1300($317mn)
USD/JPY: Y119.00($250mn),Y120.00($430mn), Y120.20($230mn)
USD/CAD: Cad1.3070($350mn), Cad1.3295/00($550mn), Cad1.3455($250mn)
AUD/USD: $0.6780(A$619mn), $0.7100(A$461mn), $0.7135(A$316mn), $0.7200(A$330mn)
NZD/USD: $0.6325(NZ$300mn)
AUD/JPY: Y83.00(A$1.0bn)
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said after a meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Friday that the decline in the consumer price inflation was driven by a recent drop in energy costs, noting that "the price trend is on a solid footing".
Kuroda pointed out that consumer prices excluding energy prices rose about 1.1% in August. This figure was released with other official government data today.
Bank of Japan governor said that he and Abe did not discuss the consumer price data.
The U.S. Commerce Department released gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Wednesday. The U.S. final GDP soared 3.9% in the second quarter, up from the revised estimate of a 3.7% growth, after a 0.2% decline in the first quarter.
The upward revision was partly driven by an upward revision to consumer spending and business investment.
Consumer spending rose by 3.6% in the second quarter, up from the previous estimate of a 3.1% increase.
Business investment jumped by 6.2% in the second quarter, up from the previous estimate of a 3.1% gain.
The Italian statistical office ISTAT released its consumer confidence index for Italy on Friday. Contractual wages and salaries in Italy were flat in August, after a 0.1% rise in July.
On a yearly basis, contractual wages and salaries increased 1.2% in August, after a 1.2% gain in July.
Contractual wages and salaries in the private sector jumped 1.7% in August, while wages in the public sector remained flat.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
06:45 France Consumer confidence September 94 Revised From 93 94 97
07:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks
08:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y August 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%
08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August 5.3% 5.3% 4.8%
The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the release of the U.S. economic data. The final U.S. GDP is expected to rise 3.7% in the second quarter, after a 0.2% decline in the first quarter.
The preliminary U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to decline to 55.6 in September from 56.1 in August.
The final Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to drop to 86.7 in September from 91.9 in August.
The greenback was supported by yesterday's comments by the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen. She said in a speech at the University of Massachusetts on Thursday that she expects that the Fed will start raising its interest rates by the end of the year, followed by a gradual pace of interest rate hikes.
"Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year," she said.
Yellen noted that the inflation will rise toward the Fed's 2% target as low oil prices are temporary.
The Fed chairwoman also said that the slowdown in the global economy is not significant not to raise interest rates this year.
The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the mixed economic data from the Eurozone. The European Central Bank (ECB) released its M3 money supply figures on Friday. M3 money supply rose 4.8% in August from last year, missing expectations for a 5.3% gain, after a 5.3 % increase in July.
Loans to the private sector in the Eurozone climbed 1.0% in August from the last year, missing expectations for a 1.1% rise, after a 0.9% gain in July.
French statistical office INSEE released its consumer confidence index for France on Friday. French consumer confidence index climbed to 97 in September from 94 in August. It was the highest level since October 2007.
August's figure was revised up from 93.
Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 94.
The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.
EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed
GBP/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.5151
USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y121.13
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.6% 3.7%
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) September 56.1 55.6
14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) September 91.9 86.7
16:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks
Japan's Cabinet Office downgraded its growth outlook on Friday. It said that the country's economy continued to recover moderately, but added "slowness can be seen in some areas". These areas are private consumption and exports.
"The economy's undercurrent continues to recover moderately and factors to strengthen the move are being put into place," Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Akira Amari said.
The government said that there are downside risks to the outlook such as the slowdown in emerging Asian economies and the process of normalizing monetary policy in the U.S.
The government pointed out that it will closely monitor fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.
It was the first downward revision since October 2014.
EUR/USD: $1.1100(E1.2bn), $1.1200(E700mn), $1.1250($832mn), $1.1300($317mn)
USD/JPY: Y119.00($250mn),Y120.00($430mn), Y120.20($230mn)
USD/CAD: Cad1.3070($350mn), Cad1.3295/00($550mn), Cad1.3455($250mn)
AUD/USD: $0.6780(A$619mn), $0.7100(A$461mn), $0.7135(A$316mn), $0.7200(A$330mn)
NZD/USD: $0.6325(NZ$300mn)
AUD/JPY: Y83.00(A$1.0bn)
The Spanish statistical office INE released its producer price index (PPI) data for Spain on Friday. The Spanish producer prices dropped 1.7% in August, after a 0.1% decrease in July. It was the first decline in seven months.
On a yearly basis, producer price inflation in Spain fell 2.2% in August, after a 1.3% decline in July. Producer prices have been declining since July 2014.
Producer prices excluding energy climbed 0.6% year-on-year in August, after a 0.6% rise in July.
Energy prices dropped 9.8% year-on-year in August.
French statistical office INSEE released its consumer confidence index for France on Friday. French consumer confidence index climbed to 97 in September from 94 in August. It was the highest level since October 2007.
August's figure was revised up from 93.
Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 94.
The index of the outlook on consumers' saving capacity rose to -2 in September from -11 in August.
The index of households' assessment of their financial situation in the past twelve months was up to -26 in September from -28 in August.
The index of the outlook on consumers' financial situation increased to -8 in September from -11 in August.
The index of the outlook on unemployment rising in coming months fell to 45 in September from 51 in the previous month.
The index for future inflation expectations dropped to -41 in September from -37 in August.
The European Central Bank (ECB) released its M3 money supply figures on Friday. M3 money supply rose 4.8% in August from last year, missing expectations for a 5.3% gain, after a 5.3 % increase in July.
Loans to the private sector in the Eurozone climbed 1.0% in August from the last year, missing expectations for a 1.1% rise, after a 0.9% gain in July.
Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released its inflation data on late Thursday evening. Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged at an annual rate of 0.2% in August.
Japan's national CPI excluding fresh food declined to an annual rate of -0.1% in August from 0.0% in July, in line with expectations.
The decline was driven by fuel prices and communication prices. Fuel prices dropped 5.9% year-on-year in August, while communication prices declined 2.7%.
The Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech at the University of Massachusetts on Thursday that she expects that the Fed will start raising its interest rates by the end of the year, followed by a gradual pace of interest rate hikes.
"Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year," she said.
Yellen noted that the inflation will rise toward the Fed's 2% target as low oil prices are temporary.
The Fed chairwoman also said that the slowdown in the global economy is not significant not to raise interest rates this year.
Yellen pointed out that the decision to raise interest rates will depend on further progress toward achieving full employment and a rise in the inflation toward the 2% target.
The French labour ministry said on Thursday that the number of registered job seekers without any employment activity rose 0.6% in August, after a 0.1% decline in July.
The total number of partial or fully unemployed was 3.57 million people.
The total number of the long-term unemployed increased by 0.8% to 2.4 million people in August.
The unemployment in France remains at high levels since French President Francois Hollande took office in 2012. The French government is struggling to bring down unemployment.
Statistics Canada released its average weekly earnings data of Canadian non-farm payroll employees on Thursday. Average weekly earnings of Canadian non-farm payroll employees increased 1.6% in July year-on-year.
Weekly earnings rose C$957 in July from C$954 a year earlier.
The increase was driven by wage growth, changes in the composition of employment by industry, occupation, level of job experience and average hours worked per week.
Employees in Canada worked an average 33.0 hours per week in July, unchanged from both the previous month and from the same month a year earlier.
Total non-farm employment climbed by 38,200 month-on-month in July.
The euro remained under pressure after Fed Chair Yellen's speech boosted the U.S. dollar. Janet Yellen said yesterday that the central bank would raise rates by the end of the year and noted that inflationary pressures are likely to grow in the coming years. Nevertheless she said that the decision had not been made yet and it depends on the labor market and price stability.
The yen had a mixed session. On one hand it was weighed by inflation data. The core consumer price index fell by 0.1% in August compared to the same period last year. The index has fallen for the first time since 2013. On the other hand the yen was supported by speeches of Japan economy minister and Bank of Japan Governor. Both officials said that GDP growth trend was intact and that the core CPI fell because of low energy costs. Excluding energy the index rose by 1.1%.
EUR/USD: the pair slid to $1.1165 in Asian trade
USD/JPY: the pair is currently at Y120.34
GBP/USD: the pair is currently at $1.5225
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
06:45 France Consumer confidence September 93 94
07:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks
08:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y August 0.9% 1.1%
08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August 5.3% 5.3%
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.6% 3.7%
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) September 56.1 55.6
14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) September 91.9 86.7
16:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1339 (1561)
$1.1295 (1192)
$1.1246 (780)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1164
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1119 (5362)
$1.1089 (2144)
$1.1055 (3974)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 9 is 54327 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4925);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 9 is 69993 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (7146);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.29 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 24
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.5502 (1654)
$1.5404 (541)
$1.5307 (574)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.5225
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.5191 (2801)
$1.5095 (1694)
$1.4997 (1971)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 9 is 22319 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (1654);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 9 is 22474 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5200 (2801);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 24
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1174 -0,12%
GBP/USD $1,5217 -0,20%
USD/CHF Chf0,9781 -0,08%
USD/JPY Y120,25 +0,04%
EUR/JPY Y134,37 -0,07%
GBP/JPY Y182,96 -0,17%
AUD/USD $0,6981 -0,32%
NZD/USD $0,6319 +0,79%
USD/CAD C$1,3336 +0,08%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
06:45 France Consumer confidence September 93 94
07:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks
08:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y August 0.9% 1.1%
08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August 5.3% 5.3%
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.6% 3.7%
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) September 56.1 55.6
14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) September 91.9 86.7
16:30 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks