Major U.S. stock-indexes failed to hold on to its gains after opening at a record high on Monday as a drop in healthcare stocks offset the impact of higher oil prices and a strong jobs report. Oil prices rose nearly 3 percent after a report in the Wall Street Journal last week that some OPEC members had called for a freeze in production.
Dow stocks mixed (15 vs 15). Top gainer - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM, +1.08%). Top looser - Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK, -2.11%).
S&P sectors also mixed. Top gainer - Basic Materials (+1.2%). Top looser - Healthcare (-1.0%).
At the moment:
Dow 18461.00 +7.00 +0.04%
S&P 500 2177.00 +0.25 +0.01%
Nasdaq 100 4774.75 -8.25 -0.17%
Oil 43.04 +1.24 +2.97%
Gold 1341.60 -2.80 -0.21%
U.S. 10yr 1.58 -0.01
Oil prices continued to rise after a report that a number of OPEC members have renewed calls to limit production, but analysts warned of downside maintaining fundamental factors that led to the fall of oil prices.
the prices rose after the message in the Wall Street Journal mentioned that some OPEC members urged again to freeze production at current levels, to limit the supply, which consistently exceeds demand.
Qatar's Energy Minister said on Monday that the oil market is moving to restore the balance.
At the same time, excess oil and petroleum products continues to put pressure on the market.
Fuel exports from China in July rose more than 50 percent on an annual basis to a record monthly figure of 4.57 billion tons, official data showed.
"It would be surprising if we quickly reached the level of $ 60 per barrel, - said Bjarne Shildrop analyst at SEB. There is a lot of oil and we need no more."
The number of drilling rigs in the US increased the sixth week in a row to 381, while investors increased bets against the strengthening of oil prices.
Due to a number of factors, analysts have warned that global markets have not coped with the physical excess, which could again lead to a fall in prices before the beginning of a sustainable recovery.
The cost of the September futures on WTI rose to 43.16 dollars per barrel.
September futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell to 45.56 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Polish equity market closed higher on Monday. The broad measure, the WIG index, recorded a 0.64% surge. Except for utilities (-1.12%) and construction sector (-0.44%) every sector in the WIG Index advanced, with telecommunication services (+1.52%) outperforming.
The large-cap stocks rose by 0.71%, as measured by the WIG30 Index. Chemical producer GRUPA AZOTY (WSE: ATT) and coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW) led the pack up, rising by 3.34% and 3.05% respectively. The other notable gainers were videogame developer CD PROJEKT (WSE: CDR) and two banks ALIOR (WSE: ALR) and PEKAO (WSE: PEO), advancing by 2.92%, 2.43% and 2.28% respectively. On the other side of the ledger, genco ENEA (WSE: ENA) posted the sharpest decline of 2.3%. It was followed by IT-company ASSECO POLAND (WSE: ACP), genco PGE (WSE: PGE) and bank PKO BP (WSE: PKO), plunging by 1.79%, 1.31%and 1.2% respectively.
Gold recovered after a decline earlier in the day and after a strong labor market data in the United States that increased the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike.
The number of people employed in the US economy, excluding the agriculture sector in July rose for the second month in a row, giving the market confidence in the near future.
"The price of gold in the morning is under pressure. This is a continuation of the reaction to Friday's data -.. Said ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele -. Expectations for a rate hike rise are increasing after Friday."
According to the futures market, the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year reached 47%, said Commerzbank.
Physical demand for gold in countries such as China and India generally restrained. In the future, analysts expect a quiet trading course this week, while it is likely a further decline of the price.
"If there is no new signs of deterioration in the economic situation, the demand for safe-haven assets weakened," - said Warren Kreytsig of Julius Baer.
Stocks of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold rose on Thursday by 0.37 percent to 973.21 tons.
The cost of gold September futures on COMEX rose to $ 1,336.50 an ounce.
The report from the Conference Board, showed that US employment trends index, representing a set of labor market indicators continued to improve in the last month.
According to the data, the July employment trends index increased to 128.28 compared to 127.89 in June. In annual terms, the index rose by 1.6 percent.
The index includes eight US labor market indicators. In particular, these indicators include the number of applications for unemployment benefits and the number of new jobs announced, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and industrial production figures, calculated by the Federal Reserve. The index is designed to filter out confounding factors and volatility of monthly labor market indicators in order to demonstrate more clearly the trend. In July, five of the eight components of the index recorded an increase.
"Employment trends index still suggests that job growth will slow in the coming months, despite the strong performance on employment in June and July. It is surprising that hiring was so strong, given the current slow economic growth. It is possible that the rate of economic growth were in fact stronger than the anemic GDP increasing by 1.2 percent over the past four quarters, "- said Gad Levanon, economist at Conference Board.
Quotations on Wall Street began with a modest growth of 0.1%. Indeed, the mood is not bad, but the market is pushed rather by momentum than new impulses, which together with the going to the end the resulting season will be less in the near future.
On the Warsaw market the afternoon phase brought new highs on the sWIG80 index, which sets new this year highs. Sentiment on the broad market remains very good. On the other hand, in the segment of blue chips does not occur any changes, at low turnover and low volatility no much happens. The Pekao (WSE: PEO) shares are supported by the press info about the possibility of lack of sales of shares by UniCredit, and PKO BP (WSE: PKO) is overwhelmed by possibility of increase capital buffers. The turnover in the amount of PLN 300 mln among large companies does not make a big impression.
GBPUSD 1.3000 (698m), 1.3050 1.31, 1.3150 1.3250 1.3350
EURUSD 1.0900 (696m) 1.1000 (572m), 1.1050 1.1100 (1.26bn), 1.1145/50 (682m) 1.1200, 1.1260/65/70/75 (614m) 1.1300, 1.1350
USDJPY 100.00, 100.50/56, 100.75 101.50 102.00 (1.13bn) 103.00 104.00 105.00
AUDUSD 0.7550, 0.7560 0.7600, 0.7650, 0.7660, 0.7675
NZDUSD 0.6960 0.7220
USDCAD 1.3000 1.3100/05 1.3200 (1.1bn), 1.3245/50
USDCHF 0.9605 0.9745, 0.9755 0.9875 0.9920
Italian banks face the prospect of higher financing costs after the rating agency DBRS has put the country's credit rating "A" for review citing uncertainty about the referendum, scheduled for the autumn.
"It was decided to revise the rating of Italy, as the political uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming constitutional referendum, and the pressure on Italian banks pose to the rating risks. Concerns also cause weak growth in the third largest European economy and its high level of public debt to GDP.", - noted DBRS.
U.S. stock-index futures rose edged higher.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 16,650.57 +396.12 +2.44%
Hang Seng 22,494.76 +348.67 +1.57%
Shanghai 3,004.72 +28.02 +0.94%
FTSE 6,782.61 -10.86 -0.16%
CAC 4,415.47 +4.92 +0.11%
DAX 10,429.17 +61.96 +0.60%
Crude $42.53 (+1.75%)
Gold $1341.80 (-0.19%)
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALCOA INC. | AA | 10.55 | 0.05(0.4762%) | 9600 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 767.12 | 1.14(0.1488%) | 14177 |
American Express Co | AXP | 65.83 | 0.31(0.4731%) | 860 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 59.36 | 0.26(0.4399%) | 1120 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 107.74 | 0.26(0.2419%) | 118226 |
Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE | ABX | 21.27 | 0.03(0.1412%) | 71873 |
Boeing Co | BA | 132.75 | 1.02(0.7743%) | 1000 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 83 | 0.44(0.5329%) | 200 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 31.16 | 0.12(0.3866%) | 6816 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 45.74 | 0.02(0.0437%) | 23119 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 88.05 | 0.49(0.5596%) | 9339 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 125.58 | 0.43(0.3436%) | 99889 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 12.25 | 0.06(0.4922%) | 5370 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 12.47 | 0.24(1.9624%) | 80560 |
General Electric Co | GE | 31.38 | 0.10(0.3197%) | 2575 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 30.95 | 0.15(0.487%) | 3425 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 162.49 | 0.40(0.2468%) | 170 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 783.49 | 1.27(0.1624%) | 2693 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 34.99 | 0.01(0.0286%) | 819 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 162.47 | 0.37(0.2283%) | 1335 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 124.5 | 0.26(0.2093%) | 795 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 66.05 | -0.25(-0.3771%) | 13774 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 119.68 | 0.47(0.3943%) | 960 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 63.33 | -0.53(-0.8299%) | 134565 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 58.05 | 0.09(0.1553%) | 6239 |
Nike | NKE | 56.24 | 0.39(0.6983%) | 171 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 35.45 | 0.01(0.0282%) | 1950 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 56.02 | 0.12(0.2147%) | 925 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 227.5 | -2.53(-1.0999%) | 25902 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 43.64 | 0.16(0.368%) | 1527 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 18.27 | 0.01(0.0548%) | 52556 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 53.55 | -0.09(-0.1678%) | 1517 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 74.15 | 0.39(0.5287%) | 9155 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 96.18 | 0.35(0.3652%) | 4830 |
Yahoo! Inc., NASDAQ | YHOO | 38.99 | 0.00(0.00%) | 1000 |
Upgrades:
Merck (MRK) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; target $73
Downgrades:
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Other:
Municipalities issued building permits worth $6.4 billion in June, down 5.5% from the previous month. Lower construction intentions for multi-family dwellings and institutional buildings were mostly responsible for the decline.
In the residential sector, the value of building permits fell 5.0% to $4.1 billion. This was the third consecutive monthly decline. The decrease in the value of multi-family dwelling permits more than offset the gain posted by single-family homes. Five provinces recorded declines, led by British Columbia and Ontario.
The value of non-residential permits was down 6.2% to $2.3 billion in June, led by lower construction intentions for institutional buildings. Decreases were registered in seven provinces. Ontario and the Northwest Territories posted the most notable declines.
The value of permits for multi-family dwellings was down 15.8% to $1.7 billion in June. Declines were recorded in seven provinces, led by Ontario and British Columbia
The value of institutional building permits was down 20.6% to $664 million in June, following notable gains the two previous months. Lower construction intentions for hospitals were largely responsible for the drop. Declines were posted in six provinces. The most notable decreases were registered in Ontario and the Northwest Territories, both of which recorded large increases the previous month. Saskatchewan reported the largest advance for institutional building intentions.
The following data was published:
(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
6:00 Germany Industrial Production (m / m) June -1.3% 0.7% 0.8%
7:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index m / m in July 0.1% 0.5% -0.4%
7:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index y / y in July -0.4% -0.3% -0.2%
8:30 Eurozone indicator of investor confidence from Sentix August 1.7 4.2
The euro fell slightly against the dollar, returning to the opening level. In general, the USD is consolidating after Friday's rally, which was caused by the publication of US labor market data. Recent statistics has been very supportive, which convinced investors in the stability of the economy and forced them to reconsider the forecasts regarding the timing of rate hikes. Today futures on interest rates suggest that the market takes into account a 15% probability of a rate hike in September and 43% in December.
The further decline of the euro hampered by returning risk appetite, as well as today's data for Germany and the euro zone. Ministry of Economy of Germany said that the seasonally adjusted industrial production in June increased by 0.8% compared with the previous month. Ministry of Economy of Germany said that the seasonally adjusted industrial production in June increased by 0.8% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected an increase of 0.7%. Manufacturing output increased by 1.5%, whereas in construction it fell by 0,5%. The data also showed that in the 2nd quarter, the industrial sector recorded a decline of 1% compared to the 1st quarter. " Overall, today's data weakened fears of a hard landing of the German economy in the 2nd quarter" said ING economist Carsten Brzeski
A survey presented by Sentix research group, showed that investor sentiment in the euro area improved significantly in August, as markets have examined the initial shock of the UK decision to leave the European Union. According to the data, investors confidence indicator rose in August to 4.2 points compared with 1.7 points in July. Analysts had expected the index to rise only 3.0 points. The sub-index of expectations rose in August to 4.8 points versus -2.0 points in July. However, the sub-index assessing the current conditions in the euro area deteriorated to 3.8 points from 5.5 points, reaching its lowest level since February last year. Investors more positively assess the prospects of Germany - the expectations index rose to 7.0 from 2.7 in July.
The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar, but then recovered in response to the resumption of risk appetite. However, Friday's data on US labor market and the Bank of England's readiness for aggressive policy easing continues to put pressure on the pound. Recall, last week the Bank of England lowered its rate to a record low and increased the volume of bond purchases to soften the negative impact of Brexit. Central Bank officials also signaled that they could even reduce the rate more. In general, the last stimulus program indicates a strong concern of officials about the economic outlook.
The course of trading was also affected by the expectations of tomorrow's statistics on industrial production in the UK. It is expected that by the end of June, industrial production increased by 0.2% in monthly terms and by 1.6% y/y. Meanwhile, production in the manufacturing sector is likely to contract by 0.2% in the month and increased by 1.3% y/y.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair has dropped from $ 1.1104 to $ 1.1079
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3031, but then partially recovered
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.45
EUR/USD
Offers 1.1120 1.1130 1.1150 1.1180 1.1200 1.1220 1.1240 1.1250
Bids 1.1080 1.1060 1.1050 1.1035/40 1.1020 1.1000 1.0980
GBP/USD
Offers 1.3080 1.3100 1.3120 1.3145/50 1.3170 1.3180 1.3200
Bids 1.3040 1.3020/25 1.3010 1.3000 1.2980 1.2970 1.2950
EUR/GBP
Offers 0.8500 0.8520 0.8540 0.8550 0.8580 0.8600
Bids 0.8480 0.8460 0.8450 0.8430/35 0.8420 0.8400/10
EUR/JPY
Offers 113.40/50 113.80 114.00 114.50 115.00
Bids 113.20 113.00 112.80 112.50 112.00 111.50 111.00
USD/JPY
Offers 102.20/25 102.35/40 102.50 102.80 103.00 103.15/20 103.40
Bids 101.80 101.60/70 101.50 101.25 101.00/10 100.80 100.50
AUD/USD
Offers 0.7625/30 0.7640 0.7660 0.7680 0.7700 0.7730 0.7750
Bids 0.7600/05 0.7590 0.7575/80 0.7550 0.7530 0.7500 0.7480
The first half of today's trade eventually brought no decent activity, the turnover in the segment of blue chips is slightly above PLN 200 mln. In turn, the WIG20 index stood at around the level of 1830 points and the march towards the level of 1,850 points was stopped. Small increases are still hold, but compare with growth of the DAX (more than 0.9%) the Warsaw Stock Exchange today once again is weaker and not so willing to larger increases.
The monthly report published by the Bank of France showed that the economy is likely to grow somewhat more rapidly in the third quarter.
Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 0.3 percent in the third quarter. Recall in the second quarter economic growth of France was flat.
In addition, data showed that the index of business confidence in the manufacturing sector rose slightly in July - up to 98 points against 97 points in June. Business leaders noted that industrial production is likely to remain stable in August. Meanwhile, the index of sentiment in the services sector registered 96 points compared with 97 points a month earlier. Representatives of the services sector said that the forecast indicates moderate growth of activity in August.
Business sentiment indicator for the construction segment remained unchanged in July - at the level of 97 points. Meanwhile, business leaders forecast a very slight fall in activity at the end of August.
European stocks traded in the green zone, heading for its largest three-day increase in more than three weeks. The market has optimism about global economic growth and a rise in price of shares of the banking and mining sectors dominates early trading.
Investors also drew attention to the statistics on Germany and the euro zone. Ministry of Economy of Germany said that the seasonally adjusted industrial production in June increased by 0.8% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected an increase of 0.7%. Manufacturing output increased by 1.5%, whereas in construction it fell by 0,5%. The data also showed that in the 2nd quarter, the industrial sector recorded a decline of 1% compared to the 1st quarter. " Overall, today's data weakened fears of a hard landing of the German economy in the 2nd quarter" said ING economist Carsten Brzeski
A survey presented by Sentix research group, showed that investor sentiment in the euro area improved significantly in August, as markets have examined the initial shock of the UK decision to leave the European Union. According to the data, investors confidence indicator rose in August to 4.2 points compared with 1.7 points in July. Analysts had expected the index to rise only 3.0 points. The sub-index of expectations rose in August to 4.8 points versus -2.0 points in July. However, the sub-index assessing the current conditions in the euro area deteriorated to 3.8 points from 5.5 points, reaching its lowest level since February last year. Investors more positively assess the prospects of Germany - the expectations index rose to 7.0 from 2.7 in July.
The composite index of Europe's largest enterprises Stoxx 600 rose 0.2 percent. Over the past three days, the index rose by about 2 percent. Stocks rose sharply on Friday as US employment data surpassed expectations. Fresh stimulus measures from the Bank of England to help the economy cope with the consequences of Brexit also supported the markets.
Barclays Plc's shares rose 3.3 percent after analysts at Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the lender securities rating to "buy" from "neutral."
The capitalization of BHP Billiton and Anglo American rose 3.4 percent, pushing up the shares of mining companies, which was caused by the increase in commodity prices.
Mediobanca SpA shares rose 3.2 percent amid reports that the French investor Vincent Bollore could increase its 7.9 percent stake in the Italian investment bank to 23 percent.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 +9.04 6802.51 + 0.13%
DAX +95.07 10462.28 + 0.92%
CAC 40 +23.99 4434.54 + 0.54%
"The US/Japanese real 10year yield spread moved back out to 50bp after the payroll data, but just eye-balling the yield spread and USD/JPY suggests we'd need a 20bp move up in US real yields to have any chance of seeing USD/JPY 110. My hopes of that happening haven't revived on these figures, and as for the 50bp move in relative yields that would point the way to USD/JPY120... that's going to take better US data and a massive change of heart by the BOJ. Maybe a risk-friendly set of US numbers is enough to keep USD/JPY from breaking 100 for now, but the most we can hope for is that a 100-105 range is enough to give the Nikkei a bid...
The EUR/USD chart isn't any more encouraging. The 10-year real yield differential, at 1.02%, is exactly at the average of 2016, and did I mention that the EUR/USD average this year is 1.1150? ½% below that is probably a fair discount for the Eurozone's proximity to the UK. I'd rather get my duration kick in the Eurozone than the US (or the UK for that matter, though that's not exactly working out at the moment)".
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today that the government will make an additional budget plan and submit it to Parliament in the autumn.
Recall Abe's cabinet approved the program of fiscal measures last week amounting to 13.5 trillion yen to help revive the economy, whose growth has slowed significantly after the increase in the sales tax in 2014. The package includes 7.5 trillion. yen spending by national and local authorities, some of which are expected to be financed by the supplementary budget for the current fiscal year. Nevertheless, the impact of the approved package is likely to be quite moderate. According to some economists, such measures will increase GDP growth by only 0.1-0.2 percentage points.
This morning, the New York futures for WTI rose + 1.39% to $ 42.37 and crude oil futures for Brent rose by + 1.26% to $ 44.84 per barrel. Thus, the black gold is trading in the plus on the background of the release of data on the number in the US rig. According to the Baker Hughes, the number of active rigs in the US rose last week by 7 units, to 381, the highest figure since March. The index was rising for six straight weeks. Also Sanford Bernstein analysts fear the reduction in the rate of growth in world demand for fuel due to the deterioration of global macroeconomic indicators. In addition, statistical data from China pointed to a decline in exports in July, by 4.4% in annual terms, while imports fell by 12.5%.
The outcome of the Brexit referendum in the UK has no further impact on the sentix Economic expectations. The headline index for the euro zone rebounds to +4.2 points.
The Chinese economy gains momentum and leads global recovery. Current situation and expectation values both increase.
The remaining world regions post improvements in the current situation values as well. The US economy remains pleasantly robust as the current situation value strengthens. The economy in Latin America and Eastern Europe continue to stabilise.
Economic expectations are no longer negatively affected by the Brexit fallout. The sentix Economic Index improves moderately to +4.2 points. Positive growth impulses of the Chinese economy are accountable for the latest upswing, however. The European economy merely contributes to the confidence built up. The index for Asia ex. Japan jumps from +8.2 to +14.1 points. The latest round of yuan depreciation against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen seems to act as a stimulant.
GBP/USD 1.3000 (698m), 1.3050,1.31, 1.3150,1.3250,1.3350
EUR/USD 1.0900 (696m),1.1000 (572m), 1.1050,1.1100 (1.26bn),1.1145/50 (682m),1.1200, 1.1260/65/70/75 (614m),1.1300,1.1350
USD/JPY 100.00, 100.50/56, 100.75,101.50,102.00 (1.13bn),103.00,104.00,105.00
AUD/USD 0.7550, 0.7560,0.7600, 0.7650, 0.7660, 0.7675
NZD/USD 0.6960,0.7220
USD/CAD 1.3000,1.3100/05,1.3200 (1.1bn), 1.3245/50
USD/CHF 0.9605,0.9745, 0.9755,0.9875,0.9920
The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in July 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.3 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.2% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
WIG20 index opened at 1828.23 points (+0.15%)*
WIG 47701.25 0.20%
WIG30 2075.29 0.23%
mWIG40 3698.81 -0.06%
*/ - change to previous close
The futures market (FW20U1620) began a new week of a rise of 0.22% (opening 1833 pts.). The German DAX also gained at the opening and in a larger scale for almost 0.5%.
The cash market started from the level of 1828 points with pretty good, as on Monday, activity and desire continuation of Friday's gains.
With larger companies less of the aforementioned reasons behaves PKO BP, also goes down ENE (WSE: ENA). The rest of the shares from the WIG20 index are on the green side of the market.
At 15:30 GMT the United States will hold an auction of 3- and 6-month bills.
Also today, Spain will hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.
The US dollar weakened slightly against the euro, but still receives support from positive data on the US labor market, which were published on Friday. As reported by the US Department of Labor, the number of new jobs increased in July 255,000 after rising 292,000 in June. The unemployment rate remained at around 4.9%. It was expected that the number of employees will increase to 180 000 in July and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.8%. The last increase in hiring was enough to increase the share of economically active population to 62.8% from 62.7% in June. The average hourly earnings in the private sector increased by 8 cents compared with June, to 35.69 dollars. The annualized figure rose by 2.6%, exceeding the rate of inflation. Strong job growth should strengthen the Fed's confidence in the labor market, which officials see as at or near full employment. Fed Chair Yellen stated that the economy needs to create a little less than 100 000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth. Second consecutive month of growth for payrolls is a stimulus to the economy after the average annual economic growth reflected an increase of 1.0% over the past three quarters. Most economists expect that against the background of improved economic situation, the Fed may soon hike. Currently, futures on the Fed rate indicate that the market is pricing in a 18% probability of a rate hike in September and a 47% in December.
The Australian dollar fell slightly from the beginning of the trading session, after negative data on the index of the number of vacancies in Australia. As reported today by the Banking Group Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), the number of vacancies index fell 0.8% in Jully, after an increase by 0.4% in June. The previous value was revised downward to 0.5%. According to ANZ, in July, the number of vacancies index fell due to uncertainty in the world against the background of Brexit
However, a further decrease in the Australian was stoped by China's trade surplus, which in July was higher than analysts' expectations. The surplus of China's foreign trade in July was $ 52.31 billion, which is higher than the forecast of $ 47.60 billion. The previous value was $ 48.10 billion.
China's exports fell by -4.4% in July, but the reduction was lower than July, when the index fell by -4.8%.Imports of goods and services in China declined in July and amounted to 12.5%, much lower than the previous value of -8.4% and -7.0% of analysts' expectations.
General Customs Administration of China also said that the pressure on exports is expected to fall early in the fourth quarter of this year.
The yen has weakened slightly since the beginning of the Asian session against the dollar amid rising probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1080-95 range
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.3065-80 range
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in Y101.90-102.05 range
The US equity market represented by the S&P500 index set the new highs. The S&P500 seriously breached the upper limit of the earlier stabilization, which today should lead to continuing growth within the movement confirmed on Friday. So far contracts for the S&P500 are stable and do not deviate from Friday's closing.
The morning data from China (stronger decline in exports and imports) did not translate into significant declines in the Asian stock markets. Apart from a strong increase in the Nikkei (more than 2%) moods are rather balanced and increases in China reached 0.3%. However, more expensive is copper, which means that the Chinese data were accepted peacefully.
The macro calendar today does not contain key macro data, there is also lack of the vital macro-economic publications from our local market.
Warsaw on Friday was weaker and less prone to growth. Our entire region was weaker, so it was not the only ailment of the WSE. Attitude remains positive and the previous highs on the WSE were affected. The Polish Financial Supervisory Authority decided to ask the Financial Stability Committee on the identification of the bank PKO BP (WSE: PKO) as important for the Polish financial system institutions. The PFSA would therefore imposed on the bank in the form of an additional buffer equivalent to 0.75 percent of total risk exposure. From the shareholders point of view it would not be a positive message.
"A rate cut was expected, and some other measures were previously hinted at, but the £60bn in government bond purchases, £10bn in corporate bond buying and new Term Funding Scheme (potentially worth another £100bn) went above and beyond what was expected.
So the fall in sterling by "just" 1.5% on the day to remain well above recent lows still is a little surprising.
That could partly be because positioning was already so skewed against the pound. It could also be because analysts are doubting whether the economy will behave quite as badly as the BoE expects, with outperformance potentially seeing a rethink down the road. Certainly a lot of emphasis is being placed on the services PMI, which doesn't always have a great correlation with GDP.
However, should the economy weaken we expect sterling to follow suit and dip to the mid-1.20's by year-end".
Fitch Ratings affirmed sovereign ratings of Austria at 'AA+' with stable outlooks late Friday.
The rating agency said the economic growth is expected to remain on a steady upward trend and average 1.6 percent in 2016-17 after four years of sluggish activity.
The underlying growth is forecast to pick up in 2017 as investment continues its steady recovery and net exports make a positive contribution to growth.
The fiscal deficit was better than expected in 2015 at 1.1 percent of GDP compared with a 1.9 percent target, Fitch said.
Further, the agency estimates Austria's fiscal policy to remain prudent, producing small primary general government surpluses during 2016-2018.
In June 2016,production in industry was up by 0.8% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In May 2016, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 0.9% (primary -1.3%) from April 2016.
In June 2016, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 1.5%. Within industry, the production of capital goods increased by 3.5% and the production of consumer goods by 1.2%. The production of intermediate goods decreased by 0.7%. Energy production was down by 2.7% in June 2016 and the production in construction decreased by 0.5%.
Exports declined 4.4 percent year-on-year in July from a year ago, after easing 4.8 percent in June, figures from the General Administration of Customs showed Monday. Shipments were expected to fall 3.5 percent.
At the same time, imports decreased 12.5 percent compared to an 8.4 percent drop in June. Economists had forecast only 7 percent drop for July.
As a result, the trade surplus increased to $52.3 billion from $48.1 billion in June. The surplus was also above the expected level of $47.3 billion.
The country's export growth is likely to remain subdued for some time, Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics, said. While the worst is probably over for many emerging markets, global growth is likely to remain lackluster well into next year - RTT.
China's foreign exchange reserves flat in July.
Today, the Administration of the People's Bank of China on currency transactions has published a report on foreign currency reserves, according to which, in July the volume of reserves reached $ 3.20 trillion from $ 3.21 trillion in June. The indicator contains data on the total amount of currency in the government accounts. It also takes into account the assets denominated in the currency and subject to conversion. Is an important indicator of the strength of the economy, as the reserves allow balanced international trade, and maintain the stability of the exchange rate.
The report also states that the amount of gold reserves in China last month increased by 1.89% to $ 78.89 billion.
Over the past decade, China's foreign exchange reserves have grown rapidly, with increased exports. However, in 2014 the volume of foreign exchange reserves began to decline as demand for Chinese goods fell against the backdrop of a slowdown in China's economy and the weakening of the global economic development.
European stocks had their best session in three weeks Friday, still bolstered by the Bank of England's ramped-up stimulus efforts on Thursday, with an upbeat U.S. jobs report also providing an added boost.
The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +1.05% popped up 1.1% to close at 341.38, the strongest percentage rise since July 12, according to FactSet data. All but the health-care sector ended higher. The financial SXFR, +1.44% and basic-material SXPR, +1.82% sectors were the best performers.
U.S. stocks rallied to close higher Friday after a stellar jobs report outstripped Wall Street expectations, showing sustained improvement in a labor market that has been spotty over the past few months.
Friday's equity rally nudged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to close at all-time closing highs.
The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.86% finished up 18.62 points, or 0.9%, to 2,182.87, marking the large-cap benchmark's first record since July 22.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.06% climbed 54.87 points, or 1.1%, to close at 5,221.12, for its first record in more than a year, when it finished at 5,218.86 on July 20, 2015.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.04% surged 191.48 points, or 1%, to finish at 18,543.53, as shares of Merck & Co. Inc. MRK, +10.41% skyrocketed 10.4% to lead the blue-chip gauge.
The U.S. economy added 255,000 jobs last month, which follows a stellar gain in June, demonstrating that the economy is still healthy, despite relatively muted gross domestic product. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9% even as the labor-force participation rate edged up to 62.8%, suggesting the labor market is tightening.
Investors flocked to higher-yielding assets on Monday after strong U.S. jobs data on Friday lifted confidence - driving up Asian stocks and the Australian dollar.
Although the strong U.S. data dampened the safe-haven appeal of government debt with Japanese 10-year bond futures tanking in early trade, futures markets were only pricing in a U.S. rate hike only in 2017 as other major central banks looked set to add more stimulus in the coming weeks.
Japan .N225 and Australian markets led regional gainers while mainland China shares .SSEC slipped in early trade as data at the weekend showed a further decline in China's foreign exchange reserves.
The strong U.S. jobs data was a rare bright spot of data in the global economic landscape with Australia's central bank and the Bank of England cutting interest rates last week and New Zealand set to follow in coming days.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1259 (3469)
$1.1203 (1698)
$1.1165 (801)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1104
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1031 (3083)
$1.0977 (4103)
$1.0944 (4135)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 9 is 42924 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1250 (3920);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 9 is 49470 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4135);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.34 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 5
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3404 (1493)
$1.3306 (1709)
$1.3210 (1278)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3083
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2989 (1328)
$1.2892 (1094)
$1.2795 (1378)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 9 is 26129 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (1866);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 9 is 20892 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1378);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 5
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Oil 41.93+0.31%
Gold 1,339.10-0.39%
(index / closing price / change items /% change)
Nikkei 225 16,254.45 -0.44 0.00%
Shanghai Composite 2,977 -5.4258 -0.18%
S&P/ASX 200 5,497.41 +21.60 +0.39%FTSE 100
FTSE 100 6,793.47 +53.31 +0.79%
Xetra DAX 10,367.21 +139.35 +1.36%
CAC 40 4,410.55 +64.92 +1.49%
S&P 500 2,182.87 +18.62 +0.86%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,543.53 +191.48 +1.04%
S&P/TSX Composite 14,648.77 +119.99 +0.83%
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1086 -0,38%
GBP/USD $1,3078 -0,27%
USD/CHF Chf0,9805 +0,66%
USD/JPY Y101,80 +0,62%
EUR/JPY Y112,88 +0,27%
GBP/JPY Y133,03 +0,29%
AUD/USD $0,7617 -0,11%
NZD/USD $0,7141 -0,39%
USD/CAD C$1,3172 +1,16%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July 0.5%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln July 48.11 47.6
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook July 41.5
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current July 41.2
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) June -1.3% 0.7%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July 0.1% 0.5%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July -0.4% -0.3%
08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence August 1.7
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) June -1.9%
14:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index July -1.9