The euro exchange rate against the dollar has risen considerably , reaching almost a session high as market participants' attention more and more switches to the announcement of the Fed meeting . I also add that it would be the last meeting for Fed chairman Bernanke in this post - in the next month, he will give his powers Janet Yellen . Markets expect the Fed may decide to small decrease in monthly program to purchase assets , which currently stands at $ 85 billion per month. Nevertheless , the probability of this step is not high, despite the previously submitted data that were better than expected . Most likely , the decision to decrease the volume of the program will be made in the next year . Note that 34 % of the experts surveyed by Bloomberg, believe that the Fed will start winding down the program quantitative easing (QE) at the December meeting. Over 46% of the analysts interviewed by the newspaper The Wall Street Journal, to expect that the Fed will announce a reduction of monthly volumes of redemption of bonds , which now constitute the $ 85 billion before the end of January 2014 , as the outlook for the U.S. economy improved. While only 25% of respondents expect the Central Bank decreasing volumes quantitative easing (QE) at the December meeting.
Pound regained some lost ground earlier against the dollar, but still continues to trade with a noticeable decrease . Note that support for the pound had comments BOE Mark Carney. He said that the pace of recovery of the British economy surprised him , but the economy still needs strong support from the central bank . In his speech to parliament Carney said that while the UK GDP shows some of the fastest growth among the Group of Seven , the UK still faces challenges , including high unemployment and " flimsy " global economic growth .
" We are still in an environment where we need to for some time to carry out monetary stimulus " - said Carney .
The leaders of the Bank of England in August promised not to raise its benchmark interest rate to a historic low of 0.5% as long as the unemployment rate in the UK has fallen to 7%. According to them, this threshold can be achieved until 2015.
Strategy policy guidance " gives households and companies confidence that interest rates will not be raised as long as employment, income and expenses will not recover to sustainable levels ," - said Carney .
The Canadian dollar declined significantly against the U.S. dollar , responding thus to the U.S. balance of payments data . As it became known , the U.S. current account deficit , which is the sum of the balance of trade in goods and services , income, and net unilateral transfers , declined in the third quarter to 94.8 billion compared with the revised downwards from 98.9 to 96 , $ 6 billion deficit in the second quarter . Deficit decreased to 2.2 % of GDP , compared to 2.3% of GDP in the second quarter .
Reduction of the current account deficit due to increased net income . Also contributed to the reduction in the deficit reduction in net outflows for unilateral transfers such as government grants , pensions and other government transfers, private transfers . Increased surplus on services, however, the deficit on trade in goods grew . The trade deficit in goods and services grew in the third quarter to 120.7 billion dollars, compared to 118.1 in the second quarter .
Meanwhile , another report showed that U.S. consumer prices unchanged in November after falling in the previous month , becoming the latest sign of weak inflation, which may affect the decision of the Federal Reserve over the decline of quantitative easing. Consumer Price Index, which measures how much Americans pay for everything from furniture to medical care and housing, remained unchanged in the last month compared to October , said on Tuesday the Ministry of Labour . But the basic prices , which exclude volatile food and energy prices , rose 0.2 %.
USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.00, Y102.60, Y102.90, Y103.00, Y103.25, Y103.50, Y103.75
EUR/JPY Y140.00
EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3800
GBP/USD $1.6400, $1.6500
EUR/GBP stg0.8430
USD/CHF Chf0.8825, Chf0.8895
EUR/SEK Sek9.05
AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.8945, $0.8990, $0.9000, $0.9100
USD/CAD C$1.0405, C$1.0415, C$1.0420, C$1.0690, C$1.0700
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3850, $1.3830/35, $1.3815/20, $1.3800/05
Bids $1.3730, $1.3710/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6420/30, $1.6390/400, $1.6380, $1.6350/60
Bids $1.6265/60, $1.6250, $1.6240, $1.6220
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9045/50, $0.8980/90, $0.8955/60
Bids $0.8920, $0.8900, $0.8850
EUR/JPY
Offers Y143.50, Y143.00, Y142.45/50, Y142.20, Y141.95/00
Bids Y141.50, Y141.25/20, Y141.00, Y140.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y104.00, Y103.80, Y103.45/50, Y103.20
Bids Y102.70/60, Y102.50, Y102.20, Y102.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8500, stg0.8475/80
Bids stg0.8430, stg0.8415/10, stg0.8380
USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.00, Y102.60, Y102.90, Y103.00(VL), Y103.25, Y103.50, Y103.75
EUR/JPY Y140.00
EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3800
GBP/USD $1.6400, $1.6500
EUR/GBP stg0.8430
USD/CHF Chf0.8825, Chf0.8895
EUR/SEK Sek9.05
AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.8945, $0.8990, $0.9000, $0.9100
USD/CAD C$1.0405, C$1.0415, C$1.0420, C$!.0690, C$1.0700
00:15 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) November -0.7% +2.5% +1.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) November -3.1% -0.5%
The dollar was within 1 percent from a five-year high versus the yen as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting today and before data forecast to show inflation picked up November. While 34 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the Fed will reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at a two-day meeting starting today, futures traders bet it will keep interest rates near zero at least until the end of 2014. The consumer-price index for the U.S. rose 0.1 percent in November, following a 0.1 percent drop the previous month, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast before today’s report. Excluding volatile food and fuel, the so-called core measure also rose 0.1 percent, the poll showed.
Volatility in Group of Seven currencies declined from a two-month high as traders weighed whether economic indicators are strong enough for an immediate trimming of stimulus by the Fed. The median forecast for where the greenback will trade by March rose to 103.5 yen yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The euro may see support in data today forecast to show German investor confidence rose to the highest level in more than four years. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 55 in December from 54.6 the previous month, according to the Bloomberg survey median. If confirmed, that would be the strongest reading since October 2009.
Australia’s dollar fell to its lowest since 2008 versus New Zealand’s as the larger nation’s central bank said in minutes of its last meeting it maintained the option to cut interest rates. While it was prudent to hold the cash rate steady in December, the board didn’t want to “close off the possibility of reducing it further,” according to minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting released today. The nation’s benchmark is at 2.5 percent, in line with New Zealand’s. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens testifies to the House of Representatives Economic Committee tomorrow.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3775
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6320
USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y102.00-10
UK inflation data due at 0930GMT (median expectation 2.1% y/y). CBI trends at 1100GMT with BOE Carney testifying to the House of Lords Economic Affiar Committee at 1530GMT. Germany ZEW at aqt 1000GMT provides the morning interest, with US inflation data at 1330GMT. However, Wednesday's FOMC seen overshadowing. Merkel expected to be sworn in as Chancellor today.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3760 +0,15%
GBP/USD $1,6296 -0,01%
USD/CHF Chf0,8870 -0,30%
USD/JPY Y103,02 -0,18%
EUR/JPY Y141,75 -0,02%
GBP/JPY Y167,87 -0,18%
AUD/USD $0,8945 -0,13%
NZD/USD $0,8256 -0,07%
USD/CAD C$1,0595 +0,02%
00:15 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) November -0.7% +2.5%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) November -3.1%
09:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter I
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m November 0.0% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y November +2.6% +2.7%
09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y November +2.7% +2.7%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) November -0.6% -0.5%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) November -0.3% -1.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) November -0.3% -1.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) November +0.8% +0.9%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m November +0.1% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y November +2.2% +2.2%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y November +1.7% +1.8%
10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment December 60.2 60.9
10:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI November -0.1% -0.1%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) November +0.9% +0.9%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y November +1.0% +1.0%
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment December 54.6 55.3
11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance December 11 12
13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) October +0.6% -0.2%
13:30 U.S. Current account, bln Quarter III -98.9 -100.5
13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m November -0.1% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y November +1.0% +1.3%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m November +0.1% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November +1.7% +1.7%
15:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index December 54 55
15:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks
21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December -7.5
21:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter III -1.25 -4.45
22:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln November -1072.5 -1198.1