News on 17 dezembro 2013

20:00

Dow -9.2 15,875.37 -0.06% Nasdaq -2.06 4,027.46 -0.05% S&P -4.61 1,781.93 -0.26%

19:20

American focus : the euro regained almost all previously lost ground against the dollar

The euro exchange rate against the dollar has risen considerably , reaching almost a session high as market participants' attention more and more switches to the announcement of the Fed meeting . I also add that it would be the last meeting for Fed chairman Bernanke in this post - in the next month, he will give his powers Janet Yellen . Markets expect the Fed may decide to small decrease in monthly program to purchase assets , which currently stands at $ 85 billion per month. Nevertheless , the probability of this step is not high, despite the previously submitted data that were better than expected . Most likely , the decision to decrease the volume of the program will be made in the next year . Note that 34 % of the experts surveyed by Bloomberg, believe that the Fed will start winding down the program quantitative easing (QE) at the December meeting. Over 46% of the analysts interviewed by the newspaper The Wall Street Journal, to expect that the Fed will announce a reduction of monthly volumes of redemption of bonds , which now constitute the $ 85 billion before the end of January 2014 , as the outlook for the U.S. economy improved. While only 25% of respondents expect the Central Bank decreasing volumes quantitative easing (QE) at the December meeting.

Pound regained some lost ground earlier against the dollar, but still continues to trade with a noticeable decrease . Note that support for the pound had comments BOE Mark Carney. He said that the pace of recovery of the British economy surprised him , but the economy still needs strong support from the central bank . In his speech to parliament Carney said that while the UK GDP shows some of the fastest growth among the Group of Seven , the UK still faces challenges , including high unemployment and " flimsy " global economic growth .

" We are still in an environment where we need to for some time to carry out monetary stimulus " - said Carney .

The leaders of the Bank of England in August promised not to raise its benchmark interest rate to a historic low of 0.5% as long as the unemployment rate in the UK has fallen to 7%. According to them, this threshold can be achieved until 2015.

Strategy policy guidance " gives households and companies confidence that interest rates will not be raised as long as employment, income and expenses will not recover to sustainable levels ," - said Carney .

The Canadian dollar declined significantly against the U.S. dollar , responding thus to the U.S. balance of payments data . As it became known , the U.S. current account deficit , which is the sum of the balance of trade in goods and services , income, and net unilateral transfers , declined in the third quarter to 94.8 billion compared with the revised downwards from 98.9 to 96 , $ 6 billion deficit in the second quarter . Deficit decreased to 2.2 % of GDP , compared to 2.3% of GDP in the second quarter .

Reduction of the current account deficit due to increased net income . Also contributed to the reduction in the deficit reduction in net outflows for unilateral transfers such as government grants , pensions and other government transfers, private transfers . Increased surplus on services, however, the deficit on trade in goods grew . The trade deficit in goods and services grew in the third quarter to 120.7 billion dollars, compared to 118.1 in the second quarter .

Meanwhile , another report showed that U.S. consumer prices unchanged in November after falling in the previous month , becoming the latest sign of weak inflation, which may affect the decision of the Federal Reserve over the decline of quantitative easing. Consumer Price Index, which measures how much Americans pay for everything from furniture to medical care and housing, remained unchanged in the last month compared to October , said on Tuesday the Ministry of Labour . But the basic prices , which exclude volatile food and energy prices , rose 0.2 %.

18:20

European stock close

European stocks retreated, following their biggest rally in two months, as investors awaited the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting starting today.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.7 percent to 311.57 at 4:30 p.m. in London. The measure added 1.3 percent yesterday after euro-area manufacturing rose more than forecast. It has fallen 4.2 percent this month as better-than-estimated U.S. economic data led some investors to speculate the Fed will decide to slow bond purchases as early as this week.

About 34 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Dec. 6 predicted that the Fed will start paring its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases when it concludes the two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

German investor confidence increased for a fifth month in December. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, rose to 62 from 54.6 in November. Economists predicted an increase to 55, according to the median estimates.

National benchmark indexes retreated in 15 of the 18 western-European markets today.

FTSE 100 6,486.19 -36.01 -0.55% CAC 40 4,068.64 -51.24 -1.24% DAX 9,085.12 -78.44 -0.86%

CGG (CGG) plunged 17 percent to 12.08 euros after cutting its 2013 earnings before interest and taxes target to $400 million to $420 million from a previous projection of $470 million. The company said market conditions remain difficult and that clients continue to delay large projects.

BP Plc fell 1.4 percent to 466.8 pence. The Financial Times reported that lawyers representing businesses seeking compensation for losses incurred from the 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill said the oil company attempted to mislead the court when it won an injunction earlier this month on payments to some claimants. The report cited BP as saying it stood by its evidence.

Rexel retreated 1 percent to 18.25 euros. Ray Investment said it completed the sale of 20 million shares in the electrical-equipment distributor at 17.90 euros apiece.

DKSH Holding AG (DKSH), which advises businesses on how to grow in Asia, lost 3.8 percent to 65.60 francs, its lowest price in almost a year. Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, meaning investors should sell the shares, and lowered its price estimate by 28 percent to 60 francs. Credit Suisse said protests and political changes in Thailand, where DKSH generated 36 percent of its revenue in 2012, could disrupt business and damp demand.

Zurich Insurance rose 1.9 percent to 248.10 Swiss francs. The insurer had been seeking a CFO since the suicide of Pierre Wauthier in August. Vibhu Sharma has been filling the position on an interim basis. Quinn will leave Swiss Re at the end of April.

17:00

European stock close: FTSE 100 6,486.19 -36.01 -0.55% CAC 40 4,068.64 -51.24 -1.24% DAX 9,085.12 -78.44 -0.86%

16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Prices for Brent crude dropped significantly today , while the price of WTI crude oil has remained almost unchanged, amid fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may loosen its monetary stimulus program , as well as expectations that U.S. crude inventories declined for the previous weeks . Note that the reduction of QE will boost the dollar , which would put pressure on the dollar-denominated commodities, including oil, and indirectly curb investment flows into these markets.

Falling oil prices also due to the fact that many traders begin to take profits on oil brand Brent, after yesterday prices rose 1.5 percent , amid continuing unrest in Libya , which may reduce the supply of oil .

Trading volumes remain low , and are expected to remain so , as many hedge funds closed their positions and the market gradually starts to prepare for the holiday period .

Meanwhile, adding that U.S. oil prices rose slightly on expectations that inventory data , which will be presented today and tomorrow, will show that oil stocks declined.

Experts expect that commercial crude oil inventories fell by an average 3.6 million barrels last week due to lower imports.

It is also worth noting that a small influence on the bidding had U.S. data , which showed that in December housing market index from NAHB rose 4 points to 58 . Economists had expected the index to rise to the level of only 55 points .

All three components of the index improved their values , led by growth by 6 points to 64 in the current conditions of sales. Smaller increase was recorded in sales expectations component ( 2 to 64 ) and the traffic of potential buyers ( 3 to 44 ) . In terms of regions , the Northeast index fell , but rose in other areas .

Cost January futures for U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell $ 0.08 - to $ 97.40 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture increased by $ 1.91 to $ 108.54 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

16:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices fell significantly today , while offsetting the growth, which was celebrated during yesterday's session , due to the expectations of the Fed meeting announcement . Experts note that the forthcoming comments will help to better understand the mindset of politicians, and their opinions regarding the asset purchase program . I also add that it would be the last meeting for Fed chairman Bernanke in this post - in the next month, he will give his powers Janet Yellen . Markets expect the Fed may decide to small decrease in monthly program to purchase assets , which currently stands at $ 85 billion per month. Nevertheless , the probability of this step is not high, despite the previously submitted data that were better than expected . Most likely , the decision to decrease the volume of the program will be made in the next year , namely, at the March meeting. Add that expectations regarding what the Fed will turn its program to stimulate the economy , which contributed to the growth in gold prices , putting pressure on interest rates and causes inflation fears , which in turn reduced the cost of precious metals by 25 percent since the beginning of this year.

Consumers of physical gold in Asia is also in no hurry to make new purchases in anticipation of further price reductions . In India, the volume of purchases remained modest due to lack of stock. Recall that earlier this year the Indian government has introduced a record import duty on gold at 10 per cent in an attempt to curb the growing trade deficit.

Meanwhile , we note that investment demand for physical gold bullion also remains lackluster - stocks in SPDR Gold Shares fell yesterday by 8.7 tonnes to 818.9 tonnes , while fixing its largest daily outflow of nearly two months .

The course of today's trading also affected the U.S. data , which showed that U.S. consumer prices unchanged in November after falling in the previous month , becoming the latest sign of weak inflation, which may affect the decision of the Federal Reserve over the decline of quantitative easing. But the basic prices , which exclude volatile food and energy prices , rose 0.2 %.

Compared with the previous year as a whole , consumer prices rose by 1.2 %, while core prices rose 1.7% for the period. Nevertheless , both figures lower than the annual inflation target of 2% Fed . Economists forecast that overall prices and core prices every 0.1% increase in October.

Cost February gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1229.70 per ounce.

15:00

U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, December 58 (forecast 55)

14:34

U.S. Stocks open: Dow 15,912.12 +27.55 +0.17%, Nasdaq 4,027.76 -1.76 -0.04%, S&P 1,786.77 +0.23 +0.01%

14:20

Before the bell: S&P futures +0.06%, Nasdaq futures +0.05%

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed, as investors weighed inflation data for clues on the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting that starts today.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,278.63 +125.72 +0.83%

Hang Seng 23,069.23 -45.43 -0.20%

Shanghai Composite 2,151.08 -9.78 -0.45%

FTSE 6,502.24 -19.96 -0.31%

CAC 4,086.47 -33.41 -0.81%

DAX 9,145.03 -18.53 -0.20%

Crude oil $97.73 (+0.26%).

Gold $1233.30 (-0.89%).

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.00, Y102.60, Y102.90, Y103.00, Y103.25, Y103.50, Y103.75

EUR/JPY Y140.00

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3800

GBP/USD $1.6400, $1.6500

EUR/GBP stg0.8430

USD/CHF Chf0.8825, Chf0.8895

EUR/SEK Sek9.05

AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.8945, $0.8990, $0.9000, $0.9100

USD/CAD C$1.0405, C$1.0415, C$1.0420, C$1.0690, C$1.0700