Notícias do Mercado

30 janeiro 2014
  • 19:20

    American focus: the euro has fallen against the U.S. dollar

    The euro exchange rate dropped significantly against the dollar, after the German CPI data were worse than expected , bringing the EU one step deflation . The euro has also provided a report on the U.S, which confirmed estimates of economists. As it became known, consumer price inflation in Europe's largest economy fell to 1.3 percent in January from 1.4 percent in December. The forecast was for an inflation rate of 1.5 percent. Consumer prices fell by 0.6 percent compared to December, when they recorded an increase of 0.4 percent. Economists had expected a drop of 0.4 percent.

    With regard to U.S. data, they showed that the gross domestic product, which is the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy , rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Economists had expected in the fourth quarter activity will grow by 3.2%. Overall, in 2013 the economy grew by 1.9%. The last time the economy grew by more than 3 % per annum before the recession , when it reached 3.4% in 2005. In 2012, GDP grew by 2.8%. Recent GDP data show that the economy expanded by 3.7% in the second half of 2013. This rate was much higher than the growth of 1.8% in the first half of this year. This is the highest growth rate in the second half of 2003, when the economy expanded by 5.8%.

    Pound has fallen markedly against the U.S. currency, which was associated with the publication of weak data on Britain. The report showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans in the UK in December rose less than forecast , but this figure was the highest in the last six years. The number of permits for house purchase rose to 71,638 in December from a revised 70,820 in November. Economists had expected the figure to rise to 72,500 by November initial 70,758 . The latter figure is the highest since January 2008, when the number of mortgage approvals was 71,999 . Loans secured by housing increased by 1.7 billion pounds , while economists expected an increase of 1.2 billion pounds. Consumer loans increased by 0.6 billion pounds, while economists had expected growth to 0.7 billion pounds.

    We also learned that the monetary aggregate M4 lending decreased by 1.4 percent on a monthly basis , after growth of 0.1 percent in November. In annual terms M4 rose 0.2 percent after jumping 2.7 percent in the previous month.

    The Swiss franc lost nearly 100 points against the dollar amid falling demand on the franc as a safe haven , which was celebrated earlier this week . Couple also declined due to persisting worries about the spread of " contamination " in emerging markets, after the Turkish Central Bank was forced to raise rates to slow the fall of the Turkish lira .

    Furthermore, the pressure on the franc had a report that showed that the indicator of economic activity in Switzerland rose tenth consecutive month in January, although at a slower pace, which indicates a good beginning of the new year. Such survey data, published by the Institute KOF.

    The index of leading economic indicators rose from KOF to 1.98 in January from 1.95 in December, marking the tenth consecutive increase. The last time it reached a comparable level in July 2011 . Rise was driven mainly by improved domestic consumption. In January lending business has stabilized , while the construction sector has slowed somewhat . Recall that in the third quarter , the Swiss economy expanded faster than expected pace of 0.5 percent in the quarter dimension, with the same rate of expansion , as was shown in the previous three months . Exports and investment were the main growth drivers.

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Pending Home Sales (MoM) , December -8.7% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.95, Y102.00, Y102.25, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.80, Y103.90, Y104.00

    EUR/JPY Y140.00

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3625, $1.3630, $1.3650, $1.3665, $1.3675

    GB{/USD $1.6625, $1.6680

    EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stg0.8250, stg0.8275, stg0.8295

    AUD/USD $0.8650, $0.8700, $0.8770, $0.8800, $0.8850, $0.8865, $0.8875, $0.8890

    AUD/JPY Y89.00, Y89.45

    AUD/NZD NZ$1.0550

    NZD/USD $0.8200, $0.8285, $0.8340

    USD/CAD C$1.1075. C$1.1150


  • 13:32

    U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q, Quarter IV +1.1% (forecast +1.5%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, January 348 (forecast 331)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: GDP, q/q, Quarter III +3.2% (forecast +3.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PCE price index, q/q, Quarter IV +3.3% (forecast +1.4%)

  • 13:19

    European session: the euro fell

    08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator January 1.95 2.02 1.98

    08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January -15 -5 -28

    08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6.9% 6.9% 6.8%

    09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln December 1.5 1.9 1.7

    09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals December 70.8 72.5 71.6

    10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator January 0.2 Revised From 0.27 0.34 0.19

    10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index January 100.4 Revised From 100.0 101.0 100.9

    10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence January -3.4 -3.0 -3.9

    13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) January +0.4% -0.4% -0.6%

    13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) January +1.4% +1.5% +1.3%


    Euro fell against the U.S. dollar despite the strong data on the labor market in Germany sentiment in the eurozone economy . German unemployment fell in January, more than forecast , as companies were more confident in the strength of Europe's largest economy . Number of people out of work fell by a seasonally adjusted 28,000 to 2.93 million , after falling by 19,000 in December , reported the Federal Labour Agency . Economists had forecast a drop of 5000 . Adjusted unemployment rate was 6.8 percent, almost unchanged from December , and remained near the minimum of twenty years . Unemployment fell by 16,000 in West Germany and 12,000 in the eastern part .

    In turn, in the euro area level of economic confidence rose ninth consecutive month in January , data showed on Thursday a survey from the European Commission .

    Economic sentiment index rose to 100.9 in January from 100.4 in the previous month . But at the same time the reading was slightly lower than expected level of 101.

    Confidence in industry fell unexpectedly by 0.5 to -3.9 in January , as a consequence of the management worsened assessment of stocks of finished products. The result was predicted to improve to -3.0 . Confidence in the services sector grew by 1.9 points to 2.3 , resulting in improved estimates of expected demand and past business situation , while the assessment of the past demand has not changed much .

    In addition , consumer confidence has improved markedly to 11.7 , being in accordance with a preliminary estimate , compared with 13.5 in December. The increase was primarily due to improved expectations about future unemployment and the general economic situation . The result was above its long-term average for the first time since July 2011 . Confidence in the retail sector increased to -3.4 -5 , due to improvements in all of its three components, namely the present and expected business situation and the assessment of stocks.

    Meanwhile , confidence in the construction sector fell strongly to -30.1 from -26.4 as a result of a marked deterioration in ratings portfolio managers orders and deteriorating employment expectations . In January, the business climate indicator for the euro area almost unchanged at 0.19 compared to 0.20 in December. Economists had expected the result 0.34. Production expectations leaders , their assessment of past production, and general and export order book remained broadly unchanged . At the same time , the level of stocks of finished products was evaluated more negatively .

    The British pound fell against the dollar after the number of approved applications for mortgage loans in the UK in December rose less than forecast , but this figure was the highest in the last six years. These are the data published by the Bank of England on Thursday .

    The number of permits for house purchase rose to 71,638 in December from a revised 70,820 in November. Economists had expected the figure to rise to 72,500 by November initial 70,758 .

    The latter figure is the highest since January 2008 , when the number of mortgage approvals was 71,999 .

    Loans secured by housing increased by 1.7 billion pounds , while economists expected an increase of 1.2 billion pounds .

    Consumer loans increased by 0.6 billion pounds , while economists had expected growth to 0.7 billion pounds.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3582


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6443

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.65

    In the U.S. at 13:30 GMT will be released preliminary data on changes in GDP , the GDP price index , the index of personal consumption expenditures , the main index of personal consumption expenditures for the 4th quarter , in 15:00 GMT - the change in volume of pending home sales for December. At 21:45 New Zealand will present the trade balance (for 12 months , from the beginning of the year ) , the balance of foreign trade in December. At 23:00 GMT a speech control RBNZ Graham Wheeler . At 23:30 GMT , Japan will release the change in the volume of expenditure of households , CPI , consumer price index excluding prices for fresh food , the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy in December , Tokyo CPI , CPI Tokyo prices excluding fresh food , Tokyo CPI excluding prices for food and energy in January . At 23:50 GMT , Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production in December.

  • 13:00

    Germany: CPI, m/m, January -0.6% (forecast -0.4%)

  • 13:00

    Germany: CPI, y/y , January +1.3% (forecast +1.5%)

  • 10:35

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.95, Y102.00, Y102.25, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.80, Y103.90, Y104.00

    EUR/JPY Y140.00

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3625, $1.3630, $1.3650, $1.3665, $1.3675

    GB{/USD $1.6625, $1.6680

    EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stg0.8250, stg0.8275, stg0.8295

    AUD/USD $0.8650, $0.8700, $0.8770, $0.8800, $0.8850, $0.8865, $0.8875, $0.8890

    AUD/JPY Y89.00, Y89.45

    AUD/NZD NZ$1.0550

    NZD/USD $0.8200, $0.8285, $0.8340

    USD/CAD C$1.1075. C$1.1150

  • 10:01

    Eurozone: Industrial confidence, January -3.9 (forecast -3.0)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Economic sentiment index , January 100.9 (forecast 101.0)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Business climate indicator , January 0.19 (forecast 0.34)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Mortgage Approvals, December 71.6 (forecast 72.5)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Net Lending to Individuals, bln, December 1.7 (forecast 1.9)

  • 08:56

    Germany: Unemployment Rate s.a. , January 6.8% (forecast 6.9%)

  • 08:55

    Germany: Unemployment Change, January -28 (forecast -5)

  • 08:00

    Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicator, January 1.98 (forecast 2.02)

  • 07:09

    Asian session: The greenback rose

    00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December +7.5% +0.4%

    00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +6.1% +2.1% -0.6%

    00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +4.2% -0.5% -0.5%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 49.6 49.6 49.5


    The greenback rose yesterday against most emerging-market currencies as the Federal Reserve cut monthly bond buying by $10 billion, offsetting efforts in South Africa and Turkey to bolster their currencies through interest-rate increases. The Fed said yesterday it will trim its monthly bond buying to $65 billion from $75 billion, sticking to its plan for a gradual withdrawal from departing Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented easing policy. It has undertaken three rounds of bond buying since 2008 under the quantitative-easing stimulus strategy, swelling its balance sheet to a record $4 trillion.

    Data in the U.S. today will show gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter, while private consumption grew 3.7 percent, according to the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell after a private report signaled a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing. A Purchasing Managers Index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics of China’s manufacturing sector declined to 49.5 in January from 50.5 a month earlier, and compared to the 49.6 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

    Demand for the kiwi also weakened as its central bank held rates steady, disappointing some traders who were betting on an increase. In New Zealand, Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler kept benchmark rates at a record-low 2.5 percent at a policy meeting today. Swaps trading prior to the decision had priced about an even chance of an increase. The kiwi dollar slumped 0.5 percent to 81.74 U.S. cents and fell 0.4 percent 83.69 yen.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3640

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6540-60

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.55


    It will be another busy day on both sides of the Atlantic Thursday, although markets will continue to look back at the FOMC's decision to continue reducing new stimulus in the US economy. The European calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the release of the German December ILO employment data. Then, at 0800GMT, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel speaks before parliament, in Berlin. Also set for release at 0800GMT is the Swiss January KOFeconomic barometer numbers. The official German state unemployment release wilcross the wires at 0855GMT. Amalgamated EMU data set for release at 1000GMT includes the January economic sentiment survey, the business and consumer survey and the business climate index.

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Jan 29'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3663 -0,05%

    GBP/USD $1,6564 -0,08%

    USD/CHF Chf0,8945 -0,28%

    USD/JPY Y102,28 -0,63%

    EUR/JPY Y139,71 -0,72%

    GBP/JPY Y169,41 -0,71%

    AUD/USD $0,8737 -0,45%

    NZD/USD $0,8212 -0,52%

    USD/CAD C$1,1169 +0,17%

  • 06:01

    Schedule for today, Thursday, Jan 30’2013:

    00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m December +7.5% +0.4%

    00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +6.1% +2.1% -0.6%

    00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +4.2% -0.5% -0.5%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) January 49.6 49.6 49.5

    08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator January 1.95 2.02

    08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January -15 -5

    08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6.9% 6.9%

    09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln December 1.5 1.9

    09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals December 70.8 72.5

    10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator January 0.27 0.34

    10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index January 100.0 101.0

    10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence January -3.4 -3.0

    13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) January +0.4% -0.4%

    13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) January +1.4% +1.5%

    13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter IV +2.0% +1.4%

    13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter IV +1.4% +1.5%

    13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 326 331

    13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter III +4.1% +3.2%

    15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) December +0.2% -0.1%

    21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln December 183 500

    23:00 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

    23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI January 55.2 54.7

    23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y December +0.2% +1.3%

    23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate December 4.0% 3.9%

    23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y January +0.9% +0.7%

    23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y January +0.7% +0.7%

    23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y December +1.5% +1.4%

    23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y December +1.2% +1.2%

    23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) December -0.1% +1.5%

    23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) December +4.8% +5.4%


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